The Latest on Southeast Asia: August 4, 2022

Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to Cambodia this week for a number of events related to the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, including the U.S.-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum. According to the U.S. State Department, Blinken will use these opportunities to “emphasize the United States’ commitment to ASEAN centrality.” He is also expected to address the Covid-19 pandemic, economic and climate change cooperation, Myanmar’s civil war, and the global impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
 
While in Phnom Penh, Blinken will also attend sideline meetings with Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen and foreign minister Prak Sokhonn to discuss strengthening U.S.-Cambodia relations. The bilateral relationship has grown strained in recent years. In 2017, the supreme court of Cambodia disbanded the major opposition party, handing Hun Sen near-absolute power. What followed was a series of human rights violations, sanctions from the United States, and eventually, a secret agreement allowing China to upgrade Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base in exchange for exclusive access to a portion of the facility. But with Cambodia as chair of ASEAN this year, geostrategic competition heating up with China, and Hun Sen in power for the foreseeable future, the U.S. government recognizes that engagement is necessary.
 
One area where the United States and Cambodia have some room for cooperation is in dealing with the crisis in Myanmar, about which some hard choices must be made. Days after the coup in February 2021, Myanmar senior general Min Aung Hlaing agreed to a “five-point consensus” plan crafted by all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He then proceeded to undermine the agreement by escalating violence and ignoring ASEAN attempts to mediate, both under Brunei’s ASEAN chairmanship and now Cambodia’s. This bad faith behavior on the part of the Myanmar junta and recent executions of political opponents despite direct pleas for clemency from Hun Sen has led Cambodia to float a “rethink” of the five-point consensus. Blinken will undoubtedly discuss this matter with his Cambodian counterparts.
 
After Cambodia, Blinken will travel to the Philippines on August 6, where he will meet with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo. There, he is likely to discuss efforts to strengthen the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Discussions may include efforts to upgrade Philippine military bases under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner noted during the 12th Annual CSIS South China Sea Conference last week, as well as ongoing talks on new defense guidelines and a recently established maritime security dialogue. The two sides will also discuss energy, trade, investment, and Covid-19 recovery.
 
In a separate trip, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and a delegation of members of Congress touched down in Singapore and Malaysia before setting off for their well-publicized visit to Taiwan. With Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, Pelosi discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, climate change, and the Biden administration’s nascent Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, of which Singapore is a negotiating partner. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob urged the House speaker to review the United States’ decision to maintain Malaysia at Tier 3 status in the State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report.  Afterward, ASEAN foreign ministers could not ignore Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and China’s angry reaction—scrambling jets and announcing live fire drills all around Taiwan. Several participants at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting urged both sides to turn down the heat.
 
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