The Latest on Southeast Asia: February 19, 2021
February 19, 2021
More than two weeks after the February 1 coup, Myanmar is locked in an increasingly fraught standoff between the new junta and a nationwide civil disobedience movement that shows no signs of running out of steam. In the days after the coup, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing formed a State Administrative Council, citing section 419 of the 2008 Constitution, in an attempt to legitimate his rule. This new ruling body has the power to rule by fiat and is populated by top military brass. The junta subsequently placed most major population centers throughout the country under martial law through Section 144 of the colonial-era criminal code. Only Chin State and the autonomous areas of Shan State under ethnic army control remain exempt.
Police raided the home of detained National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and leveled flimsy charges against her for illegally importing walkie talkies. She and ousted president Win Myint have also been charged with violating Covid-19 protocols during their reelection campaigns last year. The government has imposed a nightly shutdown of internet and mobile services from 1 to 9 a.m. Security forces are conducting nightly raids across the country, arresting more than 400 political prisoners. Authorities meanwhile granted amnesty to thousands of regular criminals and have been accused of busing many of them into local neighborhoods to sow chaos and legitimize the need for martial law. The military has suspended laws protecting due process and allowed searches and arrests without warrants. In a blow to free speech, it has banned journalists from referring to the junta as a “regime” and is threatening protestors with fines and up to 20 years in jail for high treason.
On the other side is a civil disobedience movement that started when employees from over 70 hospitals and medical facilities refused to work. Those efforts have turned into nationwide movement. Civil servants, including doctors, teachers, power plant workers, garbage collectors, tax officials, and other bureaucrats, have stopped working. Mass protests that started in Mandalay have spread across the country, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in urban centers. Police have so far mostly used non-lethal force, though a 19-year old woman named Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing was shot in the head with live ammunition and died. Min Aung Hlaing has warned that more forceful methods could be soon be used.
International Response
Many of Myanmar’s neighbors have taken surprisingly strong stances against the coup. Brunei as ASEAN chair issued a statement of concern and recalled the values of the ASEAN Charter, which enshrines democracy and human rights. Within the grouping, Malaysia and Indonesia have been most vocal. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and President Joko Widodo have called for a special ASEAN meeting to address the coup. The Philippines and Singapore have also called for a return to civilian rule, while Vietnam has expressed concern without explicitly denouncing the coup. Cambodia and Thailand, however, have called the matter an “internal affair” and pledged non-interference. India has also actively decried the coup and called for a return to civilian control. And even China, which initially downplayed the coup and referred to it as a “cabinet reshuffle” in state media, has begun to express concern. Beijing has called for dialogue and reconciliation, and did not block a UN Security Council statement expressing “deep concern” and demanding the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.
On February 10, President Joseph Biden issued an executive order paving the way for sanctions against junta leaders and their family members, and freezing Burmese government funds in the United States. The Treasury Department then announced sanctions on seven current and former generals involved in the coup, and three subsidiaries of the military-owned Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL). Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States is “prepared to take additional action should Burma’s military not change course.” seemingly leaving plenty of room to sanction more individuals and entities over time. U.S. officials have emphasized that they want to carefully target further sanctions to avoid damaging the overall economy and people of Myanmar.
The coming weeks will likely see new names added to the sanctions list including the spouses and grown children of Myanmar’s generals, as well as more subsidiaries of military-owned MEHL and Myanmar Economic Corporation. Governments including those in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada will likely impose further restrictions of their own. Regional countries who play a bigger role in the Myanmar economy, like Japan and Singapore, are unlikely to follow suit. But some of their private companies have already begun pulling out of partnerships with the military or suspending operations in Myanmar. This building international pressure will not cow the generals, but it might amplify the message of the nationwide civil disobedience campaign which the junta seems to have underestimated.
For more details on the coup, revisit our Critical Questions: Myanmar’s Military Seizes Power.
And for updates on the region’s ongoing struggle with the pandemic, visit our online Tracker.
