The Latest on Southeast Asia: Junta Control Hangs in the Balance

From October 6-11, Laos is hosting the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, bringing together leaders from around the region and beyond to discuss pressing issues. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar continues to present significant challenges for the bloc and its partners. 

On October 9, ASEAN leaders discussed the situation, with Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra proposing an “informal consultation” in December to find solutions. For the first time in three years, Myanmar sent a senior foreign ministry official to the talks. Though Myanmar’s participation in recent discussions is a positive sign, continued talks will yield few solutions. ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus for peace in Myanmar issued over two years ago remains unimplemented.

In Myanmar, the junta is losing ground to resistance forces. On October 9, the Kachin Independence Army, in concert with other forces, captured Pinlebu in the northern Sagaing region after seven weeks of fighting. In August, the junta lost Lashio, which housed its Northeast Command, to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Armed groups are now beginning to converge on Central Command in Mandalay. Meanwhile, the Arakan Army is making major inroads against junta forces in Rakhine state to capture Western Command.

As such, the junta is retaliating through whatever means necessary, including aerial campaigns against civilian targets. With the passing of Dr. Zaw Myint Aung, former Vice Chairman of the National League for Democracy, in junta custody on October 7, international attention remains pointed at the junta’s growing list of human rights violations.

With waning influence and an increasingly dire military situation, the junta is taking steps to cement its remaining power. To project legitimacy, it will conduct a census this month, ostensibly to create voter lists in a 2025 election intended to restore democratic rule. Census officials throughout the country have been harassed and arrested. Many resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations are skeptical of the junta’s efforts and have urged residents not to cooperate. 

The junta’s efforts to maintain power and legitimacy will not likely bear fruit. As such, Myanmar’s neighbors prepared for any contingency, are leveraging their relationships with resistance groups and the junta. China had notably brokered ceasefires between the two sides, maintaining close communication and exerting influence where possible. India, wary of the conflict on its border, has maintained communication with the junta but not the resistance groups. In a reflection of growing destabilization in formerly junta-held border regions, India recognized resistance groups for the first time on September 24, inviting the National Unity Government, Chin National Front, Kachin Independence Army, and the Arakan Army to a seminar in New Delhi on “Constitutionalism and Federalism.” 

Japhet Quitzon is a Research Associate for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

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