The Latest on Southeast Asia: Myanmar Election Aftermath

Myanmar state media on January 30 reported that, as expected, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) ran away with the regime’s carefully choreographed elections. The military proxy party, facing no legitimate opposition, won over 80 percent of races for Myanmar’s parliament. In three phases between late December and late January, it secured 232 of 263 seats available in the lower house and 109 of 157 seats in the upper chamber. Another quarter of seats in both chambers will be directly appointed by the military, cementing the regime’s overwhelming control of the legislature.  

The parliament will select a president in March, and the new government will begin operating in April. Junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing is widely expected to orchestrate his own election as president. But that role has become less important as state media reported February 3 that the junta will form a new five-member body, dubbed the Union Consultative Council, to oversee all important matters related to national security and government. Min Aung Hlaing will presumably remain at the helm of this ultimate authority, whether he takes up the formal mantle of president or not. 

Estimates vary, but military authorities probably govern less than half of the country. As such, no elections were held in 67 townships under the control of armed resistance actors, while polling in many others occurred only in pockets of regime control. The National League for Democracy, which dominated elections in 2015 and 2020, was dissolved and its leader, Nobel laureate and former state counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, remains in prison. Government authorities cajoled and threatened citizens to vote for the USDP, whose candidates were allowed to campaign while others were not. Despite those efforts, official (almost certainly inflated) turnout was just 55 percent of eligible voters, 15 percent lower than the 2020 election.  

Eight countries sent observers for the election’s first phase, including Russia, China, Cambodia, India, and Vietnam. No international observer missions were able to attend phase two due to time constraints, leaving observer teams from foreign embassies in Myanmar to conduct the monitoring. Seven countries observed the election’s final phase, including Cambodia, Indonesia, India, and Vietnam. Most of Myanmar’s fellow Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-states refused to send observers. 

Despite the junta’s claims of a fair and free election, the United Nations, European Parliament, and United Kingdom among other Western nations labeled it a sham. ASEAN foreign ministers failed to reach consensus during a January 29 retreat in Cebu. Afterward, Philippine foreign secretary Theresa Lazaro, speaking as the chair, said the grouping does not endorse the elections at this time and reiterated its commitment to the ASEAN Five Point Consensus on Myanmar reached in 2021. 

The United States’ position remains unclear as the Trump administration undertakes an ongoing review of Burma policy. In November, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem cited the elections as evidence of “progress in governance and stability” to end temporary protected status for around 4,000 Myanmar nationals in the United States. That decision was to take effect on January 26 but has been blocked by a federal court. On January 3, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a more critical statement, urging the military regime to “engage in dialogue to pursue a peaceful and long-term end to the crisis,” but did not address the elections. The U.S. government is likely to conclude its Burma policy review in the coming weeks, offering more clarity on whether it will engage this new version of the military regime at the expense of support for resistance actors.