The Latest on Southeast Asia: Political Shakeups in Thailand

Photo: MOHD RASFAN/AFP/Getty Images
A series of rulings from Thailand’s Constitutional Court have shaken up the country’s politics. The court on August 7 ordered the dissolution of the opposition Move Forward Party, which holds the most seats in the parliament, declaring the party’s campaign proposal to amend Thailand’s strict lèse majesté laws unconstitutional. The court also banned the party’s executive committee, including former leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from politics for 10 years. The remaining 143 Move Forward parliamentarians were allowed to keep their seats and two days later launched the new People’s Party. This marks the third iteration of the progressive Future Forward Party which was originally established in 2018 and dissolved by the court in 2020.
Barely a week later, on August 15, the court ousted Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from power, finding him guilty of a gross ethics violation for appointing lawyer and convicted felon Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister in violation of the constitution. Srettha had served less than a year. His cabinet ministers, though also removed, will remain in a caretaker capacity until the Thai House of Representatives elects a new prime minister on August 16. Within 24 hours of Srettha’s removal, the 11-party ruling coalition led by Pheu Thai agreed to nominate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former prime minister and Pheu Thai founder Thaksin Shinawatra, as candidate for prime minister. Those parties control 314 seats in the parliament so she should be elected easily.
The People’s Party will led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, a 37-year-old parliamentarian and businessman. Natthaphong is close to Future Forward founder Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit who the court handed a lifetime ban from politics last year. The leader of the small royalist Thai Pakdee Party quickly filed a complaint alleging that the People’s Party had failed to meet all legal requirements to register. But the Election Commission dismissed that complaint on August 12.
The Thai establishment’s repeated attempts to quell opposition through legal warfare will likely backfire. Nattaphong, the new leader of the People’s Party, aims to win a majority in the Thai legislature outright in 2027, enabling the party to govern without the assistance of any coalition partners. Future Forward tapped into grassroots frustration at the establishment and won 81 seats in the 2019 elections. Banning it only flamed that grassroots anger, propelling Move Forward to 151 seats and a first-place finish in the 2023 elections. Nattaphong and the People’s Party will likely continue to channel public frustration and grow its vote share in 2027.
In the meantime, Thailand’s ruling coalition will be on increasingly shaky ground. Assuming Paetongtarn is elected prime minister, she will assume power with the threat of further legal action against her and Pheu Thai. Later this month, the court is set to begin proceedings into another lèse majesté case against Thaksin, which could further upset the precarious balance. Last year’s elections put an end to a decade of military rule and fed hope that Thailand had entered a new period of political stability, despite the thwarting of Move Forward’s efforts to form a government. Those hopes are quickly dissipating.
Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Japhet Quitzon is a research associate with the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS.
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