The Latest on Southeast Asia: Secretary Rubio’s Trip to Malaysia

U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio arrived in Kuala Lumpur on July 10 to participate in the ASEAN-United States Post-Ministerial Conference, the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. At the ASEAN-United States Post-Ministerial Conference, Rubio stressed the importance of the Indo-Pacific region to U.S. foreign policy and underscored the United States’ commitment to ASEAN. But his message was muddled by tariff announcements and changes in the State Department that occurred while Rubio was on the ground in Malaysia.

On the sidelines of the summits, Rubio held bilateral meetings with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. U.S. and Chinese sources described Wang and Rubio’s bilateral meeting as positive and constructive. Rubio revealed that President Donald Trump was invited to visit China, potentially opening the door to further trade negotiations, building off the U.S.-China framework agreement signed in London last month. In his meeting with Lavrov, Rubio relayed President Trump’s frustration with the slow progress made in ending the conflict in Ukraine. Russia has largely brushed off Trump’s criticism and maintained that it would work to mend its relationship with the United States.

Rubio landed in Kuala Lumpur one to three days after most ASEAN member states received letters from the Trump administration declaring new tariff levels to take effect on August 1. The letters threaten tariffs of 20 percent on goods from the Philippines, up from 17 percent announced in April; 25 percent on those from Malaysia, up from 24 percent; 36 percent for Cambodia and Thailand, down from 49 percent for the former and the same as threatened in April for the latter; and 40 percent for Laos and Myanmar, down from 48 and 44 percent, respectively. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore did not receive letters. 

Goods from Singapore, with which the United States maintains a trade surplus, are expected to remain at the 10-percent global baseline announced by the administration. Vietnam, meanwhile, reached a framework agreement with the United States on July 2, under which most of its exports to the United States would face a 20 percent tariff, down from the 46 percent threatened in April. And on July 15, Indonesia reached its own framework agreement after a phone call between Presidents Trump and Prabowo Subianto, which would see a tariff of 19 percent on Indonesian goods, down from 32 percent in April. Both the Vietnam and Indonesia deals are light on details, which will have to be negotiated in the months ahead. In response to the new tariff letters, the ASEAN foreign ministers issued a communique expressing concern over trade tensions and “unilateral actions relating to tariffs.” 

In another blow to the credibility of his message, as Secretary Rubio was in Kuala Lumpur, the State Department laid off around 1,300 staffers. The department’s reduction-in-force orders eliminated offices that focused on refugees, human rights, foreign assistance, and most jarringly for Southeast Asia, the Office of Multilateral Affairs in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, which helped lead the department’s efforts on ASEAN, the South China Sea, and the Mekong River. That team had organized Rubio’s trip to Malaysia before being eliminated.

Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. 

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