Photo: MOHD RASFAN/AFP/Getty Images
Tensions between China and the Philippines have been elevated for more than two months in the South China Sea and show no signs of abating. The current round of escalation dates to August 11, when China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel 3104 was severely damaged after colliding with a People’s Liberation Army-Navy destroyer, Guilin 164, during an attempt to expel Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Suluan from waters near Scarborough Shoal. The collision likely caused the death of at least two CCG personnel, though Beijing has not acknowledged that. A month later, China’s government unilaterally declared the northern portion of Scarborough a nature reserve. Then on September 16, CCG ships employed water cannons against Philippine vessels around the shoal. This resulted in injuries and prompted diplomatic protests from Manila, which accused Beijing of coercive and escalatory tactics.
At the start of October, the Philippines recovered a Chinese underwater drone operating covertly within Philippine territorial waters near Palawan. A week later, on October 8, the Philippine Coast Guard successfully carried out a resupply mission for Filipino fishers near Scarborough and Sabina Shoal despite harassment by Chinese vessels. Tensions further escalated on October 12 when the CCG rammed and employed water cannons against Philippine government vessels near Thitu Island. Manila condemned the aggressive behavior, while Beijing accused Philippine vessels of illegal intrusion into Chinese waters. The United States and other allies and partners have responded with firm shows of support for the Philippines, with the U.S. State Department stating it “condemns China’s October 12 ramming and water cannoning.”
From October 13 to October 17, vessels from the United States, the Philippines, Japan, Canada, and France conducted joint naval exercises in the South China Sea. In response, China initiated parallel military drills and installed two uncrewed buoys at Scarborough for the first time. Meanwhile, a Chinese Su-35 fighter jet dangerously intercepted a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A surveillance plane in international airspace over the South China Sea on October 19, releasing flares close to the aircraft. Australia condemned this as “unsafe and unprofessional,” with the United States backing its concerns.
President Donald Trump and members of his cabinet will be heading to the region next week for expected appearances at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and related meetings in Malaysia and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting in South Korea. These will present opportunities for U.S. officials, if not the president himself, to deliver a clear message of support for the Philippines and condemn China’s aggressive behavior.
Julia Rocio Gatdula is a Research Intern for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Lauren Mai is a Program Coordinator and Research Assistant for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS.
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