Photo: MOHD RASFAN/AFP/Getty Images
Thailand on November 10 suspended the tenuous Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire agreement signed in July and reinforced during the ASEAN Summit in October. Authorities recommended the “indefinite suspension” of the ceasefire after a Thai soldier was seriously injured in a landmine explosion on the contested border. Thai officials demanded an apology from Cambodia. Tensions flared further after shots were exchanged between Cambodian and Thai soldiers on November 12, which Phnom Penh said killed a Cambodian civilian. Thailand that day canceled the planned release of captured Cambodian soldiers. In a press conference on November 17 the Thai ministry of defense presented evidence that landmines along the border were newly planted, not left over from previous conflicts as alleged by Cambodia. Phnom Penh continues to deny that it placed new mines.
Prime Ministers Anutin Charnvirakul and Hun Manet signed a joint statement to implement the ceasefire just two weeks ago in a ceremony overseen by U.S. president Donald Trump and Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim. The situation has raised concern from members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Malaysian foreign minister Mohamad Hasan confirmed that the landmines at the site were newly placed. Anutin has emphasized that Thailand is only suspending the ceasefire, not cancelling it. In this spirit, Thailand confirmed its commitment to the withdrawal of heavy weapons, demining, suppression of online scams, and continued border area management.
The United States has expressed significant concern for the ongoing situation between the two countries. Thailand is still undergoing trade talks with the United States, raising fears that Washington might halt those negotiations to pressure Bangkok. Thailand’s government on November 14 announced that the United States had, indeed, suspended tariff negotiations because of the situation. But the next day, Bangkok said talks were back on after a phone call between Anutin and Trump.
The situation along the border remains uncertain, with neither Bangkok nor Phnom Penh showing signs of bending and nationalism running high on both sides. Anutin seems confident for now that the United States will keep trade talks separate from the fate of the ceasefire, but that could easily change. The Philippines, meanwhile, will soon take over the ASEAN chairmanship and, with it, the challenge of mediating the conflict.
Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS.
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