The Latest on Southeast Asia: Thailand’s Coalition Government

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party has formed a new coalition government with the once-dominant Pheu Thai following Thailand’s February 8 general elections. Bhumjaithai secured a plurality of 193 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives, becoming the first conservative party to win a nationwide election in Thailand in three decades. The results were a major vindication for Anutin, who only became caretaker prime minister in September 2025 following the collapse of the previous government and whose party secured just 71 seats in the 2023 elections. The progressive People’s Party came in second with 118 seats, down from the 151 its predecessor Move Forward secured two years ago. The party outperformed Bhumjaithai on the nationwide party-list vote but was badly beaten in single-seat constituencies which make up most of the parliament.  

The People’s Party committed to remain in opposition, leaving Anutin to negotiate with the next three largest vote-getters: the populist Pheu Thai, which has been led for decades by recently-jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the conservative Kla Tham and Democrat parties. Bhumjaithai announced on February 13 that it had sealed a coalition deal with Pheu Thai and its 74 seats, a reversal of fortunes from 2023 when the latter had formed a government with Bhumjaithai as junior partner.  

Anutin also sought support from Kla Tham in the hopes of securing a more stable majority but those talks fell apart amid arguing over control of the important Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, which Kla Tham had controlled under the previous government and wanted back. Bhumjaithai was able to scrape together another 28 seats from 12 smaller parties, securing a total majority of 295. That leaves Anutin weaker than he would probably like—Pheu Thai could theoretically bring down the government by pulling its support—but his government has a stronger mandate and is likely to be more stable than any elected in recent memory. 

In addition to voting for parliament, Thai election-goers simultaneously cast ballots in a referendum on amending the 2017 military-written constitution. That measure passed with more than 60 percent support. But the future of the amendment process is murky. The People’s Party had championed the referendum as a condition for its support of Anutin’s caretaker government last September. With the party’s loss in the elections, the parliament is likely to pursue more modest reforms, including avoiding the most sensitive subjects such as the role of the monarchy. Whatever emerges will need to be approved by the public in two more referenda before taking effect.

Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Lauren Mai is a Program Manager and Research Associate for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS. 

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