Cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly transforming biotechnology, especially in fields like defense, healthcare, and agriculture. Biotechnology harnesses biomolecular and cellular processes to develop new technologies in a wide range of fields, such as synthetic biology, genetic and genomic engineering, and bioinformatics. While it presents immense potential for economic growth and military advantages, it also poses significant risks, including population enhancement and the creation of novel biological and chemical warfare agents. In the context of strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), harnessing and boosting biotechnological innovation is crucial in ensuring the United States’ national security.
In 2023, the global biotechnology market was valued at $1.55 trillion. It is projected to reach $2.44 trillion by 2028, and $3.88 trillion by 2030. While North America accounted for the largest share in the biotechnology market in 2023 (41.37%), the Asia-Pacific is expected to expand at the fastest growth rate from 2024 to 2030.
Because its applications have impacts across a wide range of fields, biotechnology is essential in advancing the U.S’s scientific and economic leadership. Biotechnologies can be used to reduce the costs in other sectors, through automation of processing and systems. Basic and advanced research in areas such as genomics, protein design and engineering, drug discovery, and personalized medicine could enhance the U. S’s ability to manipulate and understand biological systems at the molecular level, which would subsequently open new avenues for innovation in defense, medicine, agriculture, and sustainable industrial processes. Historically, the United States has been a leader in biotechnological research and innovation, mainly through extensive Research and Development (R&D) funding and incentives ($806 billion in gross domestic expenditures on R&D in 2021). However, maintaining this competitive edge will require efforts, as China ramps up its biotechnology and bioeconomy sectors. In May 2022, China revealed its fourteenth Five-Years Plan for Bioeconomy, which focuses on developing and integrating biological resources and biotechnologies into other sectors such as healthcare and energy.
Military Applications of Biotechnology for National Security
Biotechnology holds the potential to significantly transform military capabilities. Short of ethical considerations, advances in protein engineering and drug discovery like AlphaFold, and gene and genomic editing such as CRISPR-Cas-9, could transform how wars are fought and provide significant advantages on the battlefield. Indeed, understanding and being able to modify molecular structures could lead to the creation of novel biological and chemical warfare agents, which, although regulated by the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), could hold a strong, deterring power over an adversary. Additionally, the proliferation of gene-editing technologies raises questions regarding potential modifications, whether temporary or permanent, of warfighters to enhance their performance and longevity.
Biological and Chemical Warfare
In essence, the discovery of biological or chemical agents is merely the discovery of molecules with high levels of toxicity. AI drug discovery platforms, which are often trained on open-source biological data, existing molecular structures, and associated proteins, could generate new molecular structures, and facilitate genomic targeting.
In September 2021, two doctors from Collaboration Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ran an experiment assessing the impact of their AI drug discovery platform, if it was to fall into the wrong hands. They tested their commercial de novo molecule generator trained on publicly available data’s ability to create toxic molecules, instead of its initial intended use - generating and predicting useful therapeutic inhibitors for rare human diseases. The experiment aimed to guide the model to reward toxicity and bioactivity, narrowing the data to drive the generative model towards compounds like VX, one of the most lethal and toxic nerve agents developed in the 20th century. In less than six hours, the model generated over 40,000 molecules that scored within the desired threshold. In the process, it designed VX and other known chemical warfare agents, as well as many new molecular structures, which, after verification, looked plausible and potentially more toxic based on the predicted lethal dose values. The use of AI-powered biotechnology therefore considerably facilitates the creation of novel biological warfare agents. 3D-protein structure prediction, drug-protein interaction prediction, and bioactivity prediction enhance one’s ability to design (de novo) bio specific or multi targets drug molecules with high levels of toxicity and bioactivity.
Moreover, the proliferation of gene-editing technologies, such as CRISPR, increases the risk of the creation of precision genomic targeting biological warfare agents. Classified as weapons of mass destruction in 2016 by James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, gene-editing technologies can enable easier and more widespread manipulation of microbiological structures. While the growing ability and willingness to collect and analyze genomic, genotypic, biopsychosocial, and ecological data expands the range of viable medical approaches, it also facilitates the development of precision pathogens based on individual or group susceptibilities and sensitivities. In 2016, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced a $9 billion 15-year project to collect, analyze, and sequence genomic data to become a global leader in precision medicine. In 2019, a report identified 23 companies associated with the PRC accredited to perform molecular diagnostic and other genetic testing, including whole genome sequencing. Given Article 7 of the PRC’s 2017 National Intelligence Law, the PRC government could force these Chinese companies to share the collected genomic data, which include that of U.S. citizens, thus posing a threat to U.S. national security. Additionally, while the U.S. continues to abide by the BWC, the Department of State has publicly raised concerns regarding noncompliance by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
Population Enhancement
Gene-editing technology could also be used for practicing eugenics, or the improvement of the genetic quality of the human population, using germline gene-editing, and somatic gene-editing. Germline gene-editing refers to the modification of the inheritable DNA that will be passed to an organism or person’s progeny. While banned in the United States, parts of the European Union, and other nations, it is still legal in some countries such as China. In November 2018, Chinese scientist He Jiankui modified the germline of twin embryos with CRISPR-Cas9, who were successfully carried to term after reimplementation in the mother’s body. In the long term, if used to modify a population’s germline, these technologies could provide a country with significant opportunities for economic benefit. A modification of the germline could be used in the broader economic competition between the PRC and the United States, where the population, its talent, and its capabilities, are the powerhouse of production and growth. Long term effects on the brain are still unknown, and several generations would pass before the effects of this human enhancement would be visible.
On the other hand, somatic gene-editing refers to the modification of mature cells in an organism that is not carried forward in future generations. Somatic gene editing, in the context of national security, is often associated with warfighting and human enhancement technologies (HETs). In simple terms, HETs aim to make humans faster, stronger, and smarter, either temporarily or permanently. They enhance the ability to cognitively process the surrounding environment, to sense, and to act. The appeal of such technologies is obvious in the realm of warfighting: creating “super-soldiers” could provide a strategic, operational, and tactical advantage on the battlefield, improving the performance and efficiency of a force. If used on the battlefield, they could redefine military concepts of force and superiority, transforming the ways we engage in wars. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funds various programs that harness biology and biotechnologies to enhance the performance of soldiers. For instance, the Continuous Assisted Performance program is looking for ways to prevent fatigue and enable soldiers to remain awake and alert for up to seven days, without suffering from the effects of fatigue. Similarly, the Metabolic Engineering program is looking at placing injured soldiers into temporarily induced hibernation mode. On the other hand, gene editing could play a significant role in the execution of China’s intelligentized warfare concept by enabling the country to create genetically modified soldiers with enhanced physical and cognitive abilities.
Clashing Philosophies
Both the United States and the PRC have identified the biotechnology as a national security interest. They, however, have taken different roads in harnessing its potential for innovation and statecraft, rooted in their respective political, economic, and regulatory systems.
On one hand, the U.S. favors a more market-driven approach with stringent regulations and ethical considerations. The 2022 CHIPS Act, for instance, included provisions relating to biotechnology and the bioeconomy, creating mechanisms for a more focused and well-resourced federal approach. In the same way, the Executive Order on Advancing Biotechnology and biomanufacturing Innovation for a Sustainable, Safe, and Secure American Bioeconomy aims to boost biotechnology R&D and regulatory clarity, resulting in cross-agencies coordination and funding.
On the other hand, China adopted a top-down, state-driven approach, with flexible and adaptive regulations. The 2022 14th Five-Years Plan for the Bioeconomy, focuses on innovation and R&D through funding, subsidiaries, and tax credits for companies. Additionally, the Chinese National University for Defense Technology China’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences, and the Central Military Committee’s Science and Technology Commission have made considerable investments in “biology-enabled warfare”, which includes brain-computer interfaces, brain networking, advanced biometric systems, human performance enhancements, and genetic engineering.
Export controls on both sides reflect the global competitiveness of biotechnology, and its importance in broader strategic competition. While the United States remain ahead, at least in terms of the value of the bioeconomic industry ($118 billion, versus $4.7-$.2 billion for China), China’s biotechnology sector is rapidly catching up, thanks to the large domestic market and significant state-led investments.
Biotechnology stands at the forefront of the next wave of scientific, economic, and military advancements. In an era of strategic competition, investments in biotechnological R&D have profound implications for national security and defense. The impact of biotechnology ranges from the development of precision biological and chemical weapons to the enhancement of human capabilities and the boosting of production across various sectors, playing a pivotal role in shaping the future global power dynamics.
While the United States has traditionally emphasized ethical considerations and regulatory oversight, China has pursued a more aggressive approach, creating an ethical imbalance. This difference in approach could also lead to a strategic imbalance, with China potentially increasing its technological advantage in key areas. China’s state-driven approach and strategic investments are likely to yield substantial military and economic benefits. As China continues to integrate biotechnology into its national security apparatus, the United States must reassess its own capabilities and strategies to ensure it does not fall behind.
