Demographics, Development, and Retirement Policy in an Aging Latin America

An International Conference Co-Hosted by CSISGlobal Aging Initiative and Americas Program

At this conference CSIS released a major new report exploring the economic, social, and geopolitical implications of Latin America's rapid population aging.

When people in other parts of the world think of Latin America, they usually picture youthful societies characterized by lofty birthrates, large families, and chronic labor surpluses. While these popular images reflected reality in much of Latin America as recently as the 1980s, they are now hopelessly out of date. Fertility has fallen precipitously throughout most of the region over the past several decades and is now near, at, or even beneath the 2.1 replacement rate in most of the region’s major economies. Meanwhile, life expectancy has soared and is approaching developed-world levels. The result will be a dramatic slowdown in population growth and an equally dramatic aging of the population. By mid-century, several Latin American countries, including Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, may have older populations than the United States. A generation ago, the problem was too many babies. A generation from now, it will be too many old people.

AGENDA
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8:00    Registration

9:00    Conference Welcome

9:15    Opening Presentations

Richard Jackson, Global Aging Initiative, CSIS
"Prospering While Aging: Meeting the Challenge of Retirement Security in Latin America”

Peter DeShazo, Americas Program, CSIS
"Beyond the Demographic Transformation: The Economic and Political Currents Reshaping Latin America’s Future”

10:15   Contact Break

10:30   Panel 1: Latin America's Pension Revolution at a Crossroads

Moderator
Richard Hinz, The World Bank

Speakers
Estelle James, International Consultant on Pension Reform
“Evaluating Personal Accounts and Their Interaction with the Public Pillar”

Segundo Tascon, Watson Wyatt Worldwide
“The Economic Crisis and the Future of Latin America’s Funded Pension Systems”

Tapen Sinha, Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM)
"Mexico's Pension Reform: Half Full or Half Empty?”

Mario Marcel, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
"Chile’s 2008 ‘Reform of the Reform’: A Model for Other Countries?”

12:30   Luncheon

13:15   Keynote Presentation

Sidney Weintraub, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
“Latin America and the Global Economic Crisis: Assessing the Risks to Growth and Stability”

14:00   Panel 2: Broader Policy Challenges for an Aging Latin America

Moderator
Richard Jackson, Global Aging Initiative, CSIS

Speakers
Rafael Rofman, The World Bank
"Labor Markets, Inequality, and the Problem of Low Pension Coverage in Latin America”

Paulo Saad, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
"Caring for the Vulnerable Elderly: Poverty, Health, and the Changing Role of the Family”

Jorge Roldós, IMF Institute
"Pensions, Capital Markets, and the Role of Retirement Policy in Economic Development”

Joaquín Vial, BBVA
"Ageing and Competitiveness: Main Challenges for Latin America"

16:00  Closing Remarks

Richard Jackson, Global Aging Initiative, CSIS

Peter DeShazo, Americas Program, CSIS