The Nuclear Policy Trilemma

United States nuclear policy faces a trilemma. In an increasingly tight fiscal environment, policymakers are seeking to repair and rebuild alliance relationships with vital allies, modernize crucial aspects of the nuclear arsenal, and revitalize a crumbling bilateral and multilateral arms control infrastructure – all in a context of deep ideological polarization and politicization across the nuclear policy landscape. Pursuit of any one of these three goals may have reverberating impacts across the others. For instance, prioritizing certain types of arms control could undermine U.S. nuclear modernization and strain U.S. extended deterrence commitments. This virtual conference will examine different aspects of these priorities and tensions and explore how to weigh and address these seemingly competing policy priorities. The conference will seek to disentangle this nuclear triangle, offering paths forward for policymakers to balance these three policy goals.

Please join PONI on September 21 and 22, 2021, for a virtual two-day conference to explore the nuclear trilemma. Additional speakers to be announced shortly.

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September 21, 8:30 am – 11:15 am

Conference Welcome | 8:30 AM - 8:45 AM

Keynote Address | 8:45 AM - 9:30 AM

Moderator
Rebecca Hersman, Senior Advisor and Director, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues

Panelists
Senator Angus King, Chair, Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces 
 

A Unified Front? Understanding Partner and Alliance Views on U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy​ | 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM

Which nuclear weapons capabilities and policies do U.S. partners and allies view as most instrumental for extended deterrence? Are they most concerned with U.S. declaratory policy, overall U.S. force structure, conventional military presence in the region, or nuclear stationing and burdensharing? What are their policy preferences in each of these elements? How would allies view a decreased role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy?

Moderator
Eric Brewer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues

Panelists
Ivo Daalder, President, Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Jessica Cox, Director of Nuclear Policy, NATO

Jina Kim, Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses

Hideshi Tokuchi, President, Research Institute for Peace and Security

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September 22, 9:00 am – 12:15 pm

 

Forging Arms Control in the 21^st Century: Challenges and Opportunities of Nuclear Modernization​ | 9:00AM - 10:30 AM

Do unilateral reductions in nuclear weapons or delivery systems help or undermine future arms control initiatives? What is the role for allies in U.S. bilateral and multilateral arms control? What is the role for the P-5, particularly France and the UK in strategic arms control? Which types of arms control might better support extended deterrence? Can arms control measures check expanding Russian and Chinese nuclear capabilities? Can deterrence and arms control priorities be effectively balanced?

Moderator
Brad Roberts, Director, Center for Global Security Research

Panelists
Jane Vaynman, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Temple University

Heather Williams, Senior Lecturer, Defense Studies Department, King’s College London

Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

Modernizing the Nuclear Triad: Key Capabilities to Maintain Credible U.S. Deterrence​​ | 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM

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Virtual Conference sponsored by Northrop Grumman