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PONI 2024 Summer Conference

July 17 – 18, 2024

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The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) will host its 2024 Summer Conference at Los Alamos National Laboratory on July 17-18. The conference will explore topics related to nuclear deterrence, including deterring two nuclear peers, extended deterrence, deterring opportunistic aggression, the impact of emerging and disruptive technologies on deterrence, deterrence failure and intrawar deterrence, escalation management, and the nexus of deterrence and arms control. The conference will be in-person only.

PONI will be staying at La Posada de Santa Fe. We encourage participants to book their accommodations in this area. A shuttle bus will take participants to Los Alamos each morning. Public parking is available on lab grounds upon request.

Due to lab access requirements, registration for foreign nationals has now closed. Registering to attend the conference does not imply approval or guarantee site access. You will receive a final confirmation email once you are approved to visit Los Alamos. 

Why Attend?  

The PONI Conference Series is unique in that it brings together junior and senior level professionals from the military, national laboratories, industry, academia, and policy sphere to hear select presentations on a range of topics related to nuclear weapons policy and strategy, including research related to deterrence, the NPT and nonproliferation, modernization, regional nuclear studies, and other related fields. 

The Conference Series provides presenters with a visible platform for sharing their thinking on a wide range of nuclear issues. PONI conferences provide excellent opportunities for rising professionals to present and receive feedback on their research from a diverse group of experts and stakeholders in the nuclear community. Our conferences are also a great way to build connections with academics, national lab representatives, military officers, policymakers, and industry representatives from across the nuclear enterprise.   

This event is made possible through the generous support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the National Nuclear Security Administration, and U.S. national nuclear laboratories.  

PONI 2024 Summer Conference is not for attribution. 

Conference Agenda


Attendees Gather in Lobby

7:00 am

Shuttle Departs Hotel for LANL

7:05 am

Check-in and Badging

8:15 am

Breakfast

8:30 am

Welcome Remarks

9:00 am

Elaine Bunn, Senior Adviser, Project on Nuclear Issues, CSIS

 

Will Tobey, Director, CNSIS

 

Evaluating Allied and Adversary Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence, Escalation, and Operations

9:15 am

Moderator: Amber Morgan

 

Decker Eveleth, Evaluating Nuclear Postures: A Holistic Approach

 

Émile Lambert-Deslandes, Neglecting Consent: The Domestic Politics of NATO Deterrence

 

Libby Kos, The Regional Deterrence Challenge Posed by Renewed DPRK-Iran Cooperation

 

Caleb Yip, Russia's Dwindling Non-Nuclear Strategic Arsenal

Break

10:45 am

Assessing and Addressing Deterrence Gaps

11:00 am

Moderator: Brittany Atkinson

 

Catherine Appleby, AI in the Loop: Strategic Decision Making with a Large Language Model

 

Erica Fogerty, The Three Body Problem: Nuclear Agility to Maintain Strategic Stability

 

Jupiter Huang, The Political Utility of Deterrence Gaps and Implications for the Hypersonic Arms Race

 

Connor O'Brien, You Can't Lose an Arms Race if You Don't Run: Deterring Two Nuclear Peer Competitors without Resorting to Arms Buildups

Lunch

12:30 pm

Keynote Address from Will Tobey

1:15 pm

William H. Tobey, Director, Center for National Security and International Studies

Break

2:15 pm

Extended Deterrence in a Two-Peer Competitor Environment

2:30 pm

Moderator: Chris Andrews

 

Paul Cormarie, A New Lancaster House Treaty? The Future of French-British Cooperation in a Contested Transatlantic Relationship

 

Collin McDowell, The Challenge of Extended Deterrence with Multiple Nuclear Peers

 

Gina Sinclair, Washington and Seoul "Go Together": An Alliance-Based Framework for U.S. Nuclear Targeting Strategy

 

Iku Tsujihiro, Hypothetical Nuclear Sharing to Japan

Closing Remarks

4:00 pm

Elaine Bunn, Senior Adviser, Project on Nuclear Issues, CSIS

Will Tobey, CNSIS

Shuttle Departs LANL to Hotel

4:35 pm

Contact Information

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Kelsey Hartigan
Deputy Director, Project on Nuclear Issues and Senior Fellow, International Security Program