CSIS Launches Project on Avoiding Strategic Miscalculation in U.S.-China Relations

WASHINGTON, DC – August 8, 2025 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) today announced it is launching a two-year project on avoiding strategic miscalculation in U.S.-China relations. The project will bring together CSIS’s world-leading China scholars in a collaboration between the China Power Project, the Freeman Chair in China Studies, the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, and the Pritzker Chair. The project is supported by a $1.2 million grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Four streams of interrelated research will seek to reduce the chances of strategic miscalculation between the United States and China. The Trustee Chair’s Global Economic Order (GEO) Dialogue will minimize misperceptions within the United States on issues of trade, tariffs, and technology competition. China Power will provide clear metrics of security and economic capabilities that help depoliticize and provide perspective on hot-button issues. The Freeman Chair’s new Project on Avoiding Strategic Miscalculation will bring transparency to China’s activities in the Western Hemisphere and delineate red lines to avoid U.S.-China conflict. Finally, in 2027, CSIS will host a major summit that examines U.S.-China economic and security competition. This flagship summit will bring together policymakers, experts, thought leaders, and scholars with differing perspectives on the most pressing risks in the relationship. Additional details will be announced as the summit nears.

“The greatest risk to global peace over the coming decade will be a significant miscalculation between the United States and China about each side’s intentions and capabilities,” said Dr. Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS. “The generous grant from the Carnegie Corporation will allow CSIS to conduct cutting-edge multi-method research, expert convenings, and fresh analysis to help avoid the breakout of war between China and the United States.”

John Hamre, CSIS’s president and CEO, said, “I am grateful to the Carnegie Corporation for providing such generous support for this critical work. Their grant is a testament to the unrivaled depth of expertise on China housed in our Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and beyond. Miscalculation is one of the great challenges of our time, and it requires thoughtful strategy. CSIS is uniquely suited to offer solutions and approaches that mitigate risk and create opportunity.”

Visit here to explore the latest analysis from CSIS scholars on U.S.-China relations. For media inquiries, please contact Sofia Chavez (schavez@csis.org).