The Future of Turkey: Preliminary Survey Results

July 15, 2016

Beginning on Friday evening local time, security forces in Turkey have undertaken what may be a coup. Military forces have claimed control of the country, while the country’s elected political leadership asserts that a faction within the military is attempting a coup. What is known for certain is that Turkey’s political fabric is torn.

Coincidentally, we have been conducting a survey of Turks’ views of the country’s future. The survey has taken place over the past week through online media. It is part of a broader CSIS study effort examining the long-term prospects of important regional states to serve as strong partners to the United States today and into the future. Though certainly not performed with a flawless methodology and comprising only a 500 person response sample size, the current results of the survey—which we have closed because of the events today—paint a stark picture of Turks’ views of their next 10 years.

Nearly 59 percent of respondents to our survey believed that the greatest security threat to Turkey in 2025 would be social/political fracturing.

This was more than double the response received by the next most common response—terrorist attacks. That seems remarkable, given that Turkey has experienced a number of large terrorist attacks so far in 2016. Only 23 percent of respondents to our survey believed terrorism would be the greatest threat in 2025.

In addition to the above-noted concerns about social and political fracturing, nearly 65 percent of respondents have a negative impression of Turkey in 2016.

Further, when asked to compare Turkey’s future in 10 years to its present situation, over 50 percent of respondents believed Turkey would have less influence, be less democratic, and be less able to contribute to solving international security challenges than it is today.

Survey results are more mixed on Turkey’s integration into the global economy, with roughly even distribution across responses.

Finally, nearly 45 percent of responses highlighted quality of education would be the most important determinant of future economic growth in Turkey.

Fifty-five percent of survey responses are from self-identified 18-34 year olds (Millennials), and another 30 percent 35-54 year olds. These results are preliminary, but highlight both the concerns within Turkey, and also offer some insights as to how to prepare Turkey for the future. We will publish a more thorough review of this data and other trends later this year.

About the authors: Scott Aughenbaugh is a Fellow in the International Security Program and Deputy Director of the CSIS Strategic Futures Program. John Schaus is a Fellow in the International Security Program.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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