Middle East Notes and Comment: Sisi Risks a Quagmire in Libya

June 24, 2020

New Analysis

A mantra in police training is never to pull a gun unless you are prepared to use it. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt has brandished his weapon in Libya, threatening on Sunday to intervene in that country’s east if forces based in the west move past the city of Sirte on the central coast. Sisi is not playing from a position of strength, though. And Libya is far more likely to be a trap for him than a springboard to victory. 
Read Jon Alterman's full piece on the The Hill.

Babel: Translating the Middle East

In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon Alterman talked with the Carnegie Endowment's Fred Wehrey about the conflict in Libya and who is involved. They also discussed foreign fighters, drone warfare, and what's next for Libya.

In another episode, Jon interviewed Georgetown University's Marwa Daoudy about the climate-conflict nexus in Syria. They covered past reforms in Syria, the relationship between climate change and human insecurity, and government corruption.

We also released pieces from our mezze series on Saudi Arabia's dairy industry, counterfeit camouflage fabric, and Russian language instruction in Syria.

Events

Jon hosted an event on June 22 on U.S. grand strategy in the Middle East with the Carnegie Endowment's Jake Sullivan. They discussed U.S. policy towards, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen and how to lead with diplomacy. "We need to decouple [physical U.S. troop presence in the region] with the notion of U.S. staying power or U.S. support," says Sullivan. Watch the event back on the CSIS website here or read the transcript here.

Other

Jon and Will contributed to a new report by the World Bank's Harun Onder on the ripple effects of the Syrian conflict on the Mashreq region, called The Fallout of the War.

In the News

The Middle East Program's event with Jake Sulllivan was referenced in an Al Monitor article. Sullivan's remarks during the event are quoted, saying "The election of [President Hassan Rouhani] was not irrelevant toward the outcome of nuclear diplomacy, but it’s also not dispositive.” (06/22/20).