The Latest on Covid-19 in Southeast Asia: July 16, 2020

July 16, 2020

Singaporeans went to the polls on July 10 in Southeast Asia’s first elections held during the coronavirus pandemic. As expected, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) retained its supermajority, but the opposition Workers’ Party made a strong showing. It secured an unprecedented 10 out of 93 parliamentary seats. The PAP’s vote share settled at 61.2 percent, a sharp fall from 69.9 percent in the 2015 elections. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, the next prime minister-in-waiting, had a particularly disappointing night. He eked out a win with 53.4 percent in an East Coast constituency into which he was parachuted at the last minute to head-off a PAP loss. The party had easily won that constituency last time around, securing 60.7 percent of the votes in 2015.

The voting process itself was marked by controversy, with voters frustrated over long lines and the difficulty of maintaining social distancing. The PAP’s underperformance may be partly due to disappointment with its handling of the Covid-19 crisis. This could bode poorly for other regional leaders who face elections later this year. Myanmar will host its general elections on November 8, Indonesia will hold local elections in December, and Malaysia is likely to see a snap election by the end of the year. Though these countries face vastly different circumstances, they will face similar challenges in trying to organize a safe and transparent election amid a pandemic. And government’s handling of Covid-19 and its economic fallout will undoubtedly be a major factor at ballot boxes across the region.

Potential Dangers

Although most countries in the region continue to aggressively pursue reopening, recent trends in Covid-19 cases have forced some governments to reconsider. Thailand has revised its quarantine exemptions for some foreigners following two instances of possible Covid-19 exposure, and has also increased security at its land borders amid fears of Covid-19 transmission from migrant workers entering the country through irregular channels. In Indonesia, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan on July 12 announced that he was considering tightening the city’s large-scale social restrictions measures after recording a record number of new daily cases. In the Philippines, the city of Navotas in Metro Manila is set to return to lockdown after a spike in cases. With Covid-19 spread in Indonesia and the Philippines showing little sign of slowing, leaders in both countries face difficult decisions about whether to roll back their reopening plans.

The IMF in late June released adjusted GDP growth projections for 30 countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. All four were adjusted downward, as shown in our updated chart:

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