The Latest on Covid-19 in Southeast Asia: July 29, 2020

July 29, 2020

Southeast Asia’s Covid-19 recovery has now split into three distinct tracks. There are those countries that were hit early and have successfully brought the virus under control. On the other side are those that have so far failed to control the spread of the pandemic. And then there are those countries which were largely spared an early surge altogether. Each of these offer lessons, and continued dangers in the months ahead.
 
Under Control
 
Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam all had early cases of community spread but gained control of the situation. Each used an effective combination of rapid lockdowns, strictly-enforced quarantine measures, strong test and trace regimes, and trusted public messaging. Vietnam was the obvious standout, with low case numbers and zero recorded deaths. Thailand and Malaysia were slower to respond, and authorities were criticized in the early months of the pandemic. But strong healthcare systems and science-based responses have since “flattened the curve” in both countries. Singapore has straddled the line between this and the next category. The city-state squandered its early success in containing the virus by neglecting its large migrant worker population, which saw an explosion of cases. Singapore has again flattened the curve on new cases numbers but has not squashed community transmission.
 
Recent developments in Vietnam are a reminder that no country, no matter how effective its early response, is out of the woods yet. Over a dozen new cases cropped up over the weekend in the tourist city of Danang. This has shattered the sense of normalcy that had returned to the country. But the government has responded swiftly and effectively. Authorities undertook a four-day evacuation of 80,000 people from Danang while re-imposing social distancing and quarantine measures. Citizens in other cities quickly returned to wearing masks and practicing social distancing. The case of Danang offers a cautionary tale—new imported cases are inevitable as countries reopen, and vigilance is paramount.
 
Out of Control
 
Indonesia and the Philippines remain the worst hit countries in the region. Indonesia never successfully implemented large-scale restrictions nationwide, though some localities have done better than others. Now the country seems to be giving up on flattening the curve in favor of reopening the economy. The Philippines more aggressively pursued lockdown measures, but those have been unevenly implemented and undermined by poor testing and tracing capacity. Both countries have relied on security forces to enforce quarantines and lockdown measures, which has proven far less effective than the civilian-led responses of neighboring countries. And poor implementation of government policies combined with mixed messages from senior leaders has damaged public trust. This in turn prevents the universal adoption of social distancing and mask use.
 
Fragile Control
 
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei were spared an early surge of coronavirus cases. All have successfully kept case numbers and death rates low, but it is unclear how much that can be credited to government responses. All four seem to have avoided early community transmission, by luck as much as anything. Once international air travel came to a halt and their larger neighbors locked down land borders, there were few opportunities for the virus to enter these countries. Brunei was proactive in imposing lockdown measures and is also the only one of the four with the capacity for effective testing and contact tracing. But Myanmar, Laos, and especially Cambodia were slow to impose travel restrictions and lockdowns. And all three suffer from extremely limited healthcare capacity. As they and their neighbors ease travel restrictions, they are likely to see new imported cases. And if they are not vigilant, that could lead to community transmission which they might not be able to control. 
 
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