The Latest on Covid-19 in Southeast Asia: August 13, 2020
August 13, 2020
Covid-19 case numbers and government responses remain varied throughout the region. The Philippines has surpassed Indonesia in total reported cases, though low testing capacity makes Jakarta’s official numbers suspect. Vietnam, and to a lesser degree Cambodia, are battling back a second wave of cases. Beyond the numbers, the pandemic continues to strain democratic institutions and governance.
Coronavirus as a Political Tool
Authorities in Phnom Penh, Manila, and elsewhere have used the pandemic as a justification for cracking down on dissent. The Philippines and Indonesia have used the security services to enforce lockdown measures in ways that strain civil-military relations and democratic norms. And in some countries, the interplay between politics and the pandemic is even more complex.
The government of Thailand cracked down on student-led protests last week, arresting high-profile members of the pro-democracy movement on charges of sedition and defying an emergency decree imposed to control the coronavirus. Protests against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s nominally civilian government have spread throughout the country in recent weeks. Protesters blame the regime for the poor state of the economy and have begun to call for reforms to the monarchy—the country’s most taboo political subject. Protestors’ demands include dissolving Parliament, holding new elections, and changing the constitution.
In Malaysia, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin might owe his position to the pandemic. After his predecessor Mahathir Mohammad resigned in late February, Muhyiddin came to power with a shaky coalition. As Mahathir organized a no-confidence motion against him, the new prime minister used the pandemic as an excuse to shorten the parliamentary session and avoid a vote. Muhyiddin has still not proven that he controls a majority in Parliament. A new election will be needed to determine who has the mandate to govern, but no date has been set amid the ongoing pandemic.
Potential Election Trouble
With two other regional elections in the months ahead, the trend of using the coronavirus pandemic to circumvent democratic processes is troubling. Myanmar is set to hold its general election on November 8, while Indonesia has pushed its local elections back to December 9. Myanmar’s election will be an important test of the country’s transition away from military rule. It will be hard-pressed to ensure a credible election amid the pandemic, ongoing ethnic insurgencies, and the widespread disenfranchisement of Rohingya. The government has said that it may postpone the election in Rakhine State, where intense fighting continues between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army.
In Indonesia, the military has been mobilized to enforce Covid containment measures as part of a new presidential decree, although President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has left the details to local leaders. It is unclear how these new measures will impact the polling process. Even Singapore had difficulty maintaining social distancing, and experienced long lines and voter frustration during its elections last month. Ensuring free and fair elections in Indonesia and Myanmar will be exponentially more difficult.
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