ISP Brief October 2020
November 1, 2020
It's our pleasure to send you the October 2020 edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program. The ISP Brief features CSIS reports and analysis written by our scholars and includes externally published articles, media highlights such as video interviews and podcasts, and links to recent and upcoming virtual events.
We hope the newsletter provides you, our readers, a snapshot of the excellent work underway in ISP and the engaging analysis of our experts. As always, your feedback is welcomed by our ISP Outreach Team listed at the bottom.
Featured
Buttressing Institutional Integrity in an Election Year
The United States has clear laws and norms that limit when federal forces—federal law enforcement, federalized national guard, and active-duty military—can be sent into cities and towns in America, particularly in the context of elections. Yet, the deployment of such forces to cities this summer, combined with administration statements about deploying federal law enforcement to prevent voting fraud, has the potential to confuse the public about what is lawful and appropriate and raises concerns about potential abuse. A new brief from Devi Nair, Melissa Dalton, and Suzanne Spaulding explores laws, policies, practices and norms regarding the domestic deployment of federal forces and makes recommendations to increase public trust.
The War Comes Home: The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States
White supremacists and other like-minded extremists conducted two-thirds of the terrorist plots and attacks in the United States in 2020, according to new CSIS data. Anarchists, anti-fascists, and other like-minded extremists orchestrated 20 percent of the plots and attacks, though the number of incidents grew from previous years as these extremists targeted law enforcement, military, and government facilities and personnel. Despite these findings, however, the Transnational Threats Project found that the number of fatalities from domestic terrorism is relatively low compared to previous years.
International Security at the Nuclear Nexus
Defense360's International Security at the Nuclear Nexus series examines cross-cutting strategic security challenges at the intersection of nuclear weapons and other domains, including cyber, space, and conventional war. The series features International Security Program authors analyzing a range of issues in national security as they relate to the nuclear space.
Promote and Build: A Strategic Approach to Digital Authoritarianism
Digital authoritarianism presents overlapping and expanding challenges within autocracies and democracies. The ever evolving tools and techniques of digital authoritarianism transcend boundaries and have over the past decade advanced the interests of authoritarian states while subverting human rights, democratic principles, and more. A new strategic approach is needed to address this broad challenge set. ISP's Sam Brannen and the Project on Prosperity and Development's Erol Yayboke discuss these issues in their latest brief.
Secretary Esper Previews the Future Navy
On October 6, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper previewed elements of a long-awaited plan about the future Navy fleet, which he called "Battle Force 2045." The Navy has been long overdue to present a new force structure, and Esper's remarks provided an outline of what the future fleet will look like. ISP's Mark Cancian and Adam Saxton examine Esper's proposed changes to Navy force structure, its likely costs, broader context, and potential opposition.
ISP Spotlight
Introducing: Represent , a Defense360 Series
The Defense360 Represent series features essays from CSIS and external authors discussing issues at the intersection of national security and diversity, inclusion, and representation. Read the first batch of essays now.
The Leaky Pipeline by Dr. Naazneen H. Barma
Ableism in National Security Spaces by Rebecca Cokley
"The Talk" by Tony Johnson
Our Achilles' Heel by Beverly Kirk
Transphobia and National Securit y by Shawn Skelly
Letter from the Editors: Welcome to Represent by Christine Brazeau, Suzanne Claeys, Seamus P. Daniels, Dr. Alice Hunt Friend, Kaitlyn Johnson, and Simone Williams
Publications
What Clinton’s Foreign Affairs Article May Mean for the Defense Budget by Todd Harrison
Covid-19 Response Update: October 16-October 23 by Mark Cancian, Adam Saxton, and Nidal Morrison
Can Public Recognition of Achievements Help the Air Force Retain Pilots? This Officer Thinks So. by LtCol Tobias B. Switzer
A Balance of Instability: Effects of a Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite Weapons Ban on Nuclear Stability by Kaitlyn Johnson
Military Forces in FY 2021: The Budget and Strategy Overview: Four Challenges and a Wild Card by Mark Cancian
The Air Force Pilot Retention Crisis is Not Over by LtCol Tobias B. Switzer
Trump’s German Withdrawal Plans ‘Extremely Expensive’ by Mark Cancian
Covid-19 Response Update: October 9-October 16 by Mark Cancian, Adam Saxton, and Nidal Morrison
Cross-domain Competition: How Organizational Stovepipes Create Risks for Shared Missions by Dr. Morgan Dwyer
Exploring Insights from Emerging Space Agencies by Renata Knittel Kommel, Ashley Peter, Mackenzie Puig-Hall, and Luc Riesbeck
Three Recommendations for Improving Air Force Pilot Retention by LtCol Tobias B. Switzer Covid-19 Response Update: October 2-October 9 by Mark Cancian, Adam Saxton, and Nidal Morrison
What the Continuing Resolution Means for Defense and Space Force Funding in FY 2021 by Seamus P. Daniels and Kaitlyn Johnson
The Analytic Edge: Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Transform Intelligence Analysis by Brian Katz
Defense Acquisition Trends 2020: Topline DoD Trends by Rhys McCormick
The Conventional Force Perspective: Nuclear Integration in Doctrine, Concepts, and Exercises by Adam Saxton and Mark Cancian
Breaking the Silo: Examining International Security at the Nuclear Nexus by Rebecca Hersman, Reja Younis, and Maxwell Simon
Providers or Enforcers? The Duality of Security Forces’ Roles in Covid-19 Response Efforts by Melissa Dalton
Covid-19 Response Update: September 25-October 2 by Mark Cancian, Adam Saxton, and Nidal Morrison
Reinforcing Institutional Integrity in an Election Year: The Role of U.S. Federal Forces by Melissa Dalton, Suzanne Spaulding, and Devi Nair
Why Trump’s Retreat from US Allies Could Have Nuclear Consequences by Eric Brewer
Election Security: Fundamental and Threatened by Elizabeth Rindskopf Parker, Suzanne Spaulding, and Devi Nair
Multimedia
Andrew Hunter discusses trends and takeaways from his analysis of defense contract spending on Government Matters. Watch here .
Digital tools give authoritarian governments and likeminded leaders new opportunities to repress and disrupt—this is known as digital authoritarianism. A new strategic approach is needed to address this broad challenge set. Watch here .
Suzanne Spaulding discusses how government agencies are working to ensure election security on Government Matters. Watch here .
LtCol Tobias B. Switzer details recommendations for improving pilot retention in the Air Force on Government Matters. Watch here .
Dr. Seth G. Jones explains the rise in threats of domestic terrorism during this election season on West Michigan's Fox 17. Watch here .
Suzanne Spaulding spoke on a panel for the Council on Foreign Relations' Screening and Discussion of "The Perfect Weapon." Watch here .
Todd Harrison discusses developments in Space Force acquisition and the effect a change in administration could have on restructuring efforts on Government Matters. Watch here .
Suzanne Spaulding , Elizabeth Rindskopf Parker, and Ted McConnell joined Talking Beats with Daniel Lelchuk to discuss why civic education is a national security imperative. Listen here and watch the recording here .
ISP Podcasts
Smart Women, Smart Power
Hosted by Beverly Kirk
Global Maritime Security
Featuring: Vice Admiral Linda Fagan, USCG
Listen on Apple and Spotify .
Investing in Women in the Workplace
Featuring: Charity Wallace
Listen on Apple and Spotify .
Defense 2020
Hosted by Dr. Kathleen Hicks
Meanwhile, Back at the Pentagon: Innovation in DoD
Featuring: Todd Harrison, Dr. Morgan Dwyer, and Lindsey R. Sheppard
Listen on Apple and Spotify .
National Security Topics in the 2020 Election
Featuring: Sam Brannen and Mackenzie Eaglen Listen on Apple and Spotify .
Thank You For Your Service
Hosted by Dr. Alice Hunt Friend and Dr. Jim Golby
The American History of Vietghanistan, Part 2
Featuring: Matt Gallagher, Dr. Erin Simpson, and Paul Szoldra
Listen on Apple and Spotify .
Race and the Military
Featuring: Bishop Garrison, Dr. Radha Iyengar-Plumb, Jada Johnson, James Johnson, Dana Pittard, and Daniel White
Listen on Apple and Spotify .
Online Events: November 2020
Online Event: Enabling the 21st Century Operator: A Conversation with JAIC Director LtGen Michael Groen
Hosted by: Brian Katz and Lindsey Sheppard
1:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. ET
Online Event: Election 2020 Aftermath: A Conversation with Dana Perino
Hosted by: Beverly Kirk
3:30 p.m. - 4:15 p.m. ET
Online Events: October 2020
Online Event: Maritime Security Dialogue - The Movement Toward Greater Integration in Naval Warfare
Featuring: VADM James W. Kilby, USN, LtGen Eric M. Smith, USMC
Hosted by: VADM Peter H. Daly, USN (Ret.)
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Online Event: Air Force Pilot Retention: New Recommendations for An Enduring Crisis
Featuring: Dr. Timothy Kane, Lt Col Jeffrey Schneider, and Katherine Kidder
Hosted by: LtCol Tobias B. Switzer
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Online Event: Opening Doors: A Conversation with Reja Younis
Featuring: Reja Younis
Hosted by: Christine Brazeau
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Online Event: International Security at the Nuclear Nexus (Day 1)
Keynote: Admiral Charles Richard
Hosted by: Rebecca Hersman
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Online Event: Promote and Build: A Strategic Approach to Combatting Digital Authoritarianism
Featuring: Daniel Russel and Daniel Twining
Hosted by: Erol Yayboke, Samuel Brannen, and Suzanne Spaulding
Friday, October 16, 2020
Leading Rapid Technological Change in the Space Community: After the Event
Featuring: Mandy Vaughn, Dr. Ellen Stofan, and Dr. Claire Leon
Hosted by: Dr. Morgan Dwyer
Friday, October 9, 2020
Online Event: Leading Rapid Technological Change in the Space Community: Perspectives of the Women in Charge
Featuring: Mandy Vaughn, Dr. Ellen Stofan, and Dr. Claire Leon
Hosted by: Dr. Morgan Dwyer
Friday, October 9, 2020
Online Event: A Conversation with NCTC Director Christopher Miller
Featuring: Christopher Miller
Hosted by: Dr. Seth G. Jones
Thursday, October 8, 2020
Online Event: Maritime Security Dialogue: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in the U.S. Navy
Featuring: VADM John B. Nowell, Jr., USN and VADM Peter H. Daly, USN (Ret.)
Hosted by: Dr. Alice Hunt Friend
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Online Event: Department of Defense’s Service Industrial Base
Featuring: David J. Berteau, Eric Chewning, and Tara Murphy Dougherty
Hosted by: Gregory Sanders and Andrew Philip Hunter
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Media Highlights
“One possible explanation is that they are calling in the real pros — the A Team — who is used to operating in this really sensitive critical infrastructure where you want to keep quiet until you don’t,” said Suzanne Spaulding in The New York Times on October 23, 2020.
“There has to be heavy penetration of these extremist groups to catch people before they attack,” Dr. Seth G. Jones told TIME on October 13, 2020. “It’s going to be difficult because, unlike the Islamic State or al-Qaeda as organizations, they’re very decentralized. So it just makes it really hard for the joint terrorism task forces, which have this responsibility across the U.S., to do this.”
“Americans who see uniformed military personnel at partisan political functions may assume the military has a partisan identity,” Dr. Alice Hunt Friend said in The Washington Post on October 11, 2020. “Presidents running for reelection always have to take extra care to keep their military aides out of their campaign activities.”