Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

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Press Briefing: Analyzing the 2022 National Defense Strategy

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a press briefing on October 27, at 2:00 p.m. ET analyzing the 2022 National Defense Strategy.

Event by Seth G. Jones , Max Bergmann , Emily Harding , Tom Karako , Mark F. Cancian , and Kathleen McInnis — October 27, 2022

Photo: STAFF/AFP via Getty Images

Can the United States Do More for Ukrainian Air Defense?

Ukraine is pleading for air defense systems to protect against Russian missile and drone attacks, but the United States has little left to give and Europeans can provide only small numbers in the near term.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — October 17, 2022

SAM YEH/AFP/Getty Images

What Does Russia’s ‘Partial Mobilization’ Mean?

Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization on September 21 signaled a major escalation of the war. Although the mobilization faces many problems, it might allow the Russians to stretch the war into the winter, when they hope the Europeans, facing hardship, will settle.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — September 26, 2022

Photo: OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP via Getty Images

Latest Ukraine Package: More Artillery and the Beginnings of a New Navy

The recently announced aid package to Ukraine provides patrol boats and continues to strengthen Ukrainian artillery. However, both the patrol boats’ limited capabilities and a lack of conventional munitions for HIMARS reduce the package’s impact.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — June 27, 2022

Photo: JOE KLAMAR/AFP/GettyImages

Aid to Ukraine Requires Increased Oversight

The size and scope of U.S. aid to Ukraine is increasing—and with it, the need for oversight and accountability. Any corruption in handling this aid would undermine the bipartisan support that the aid has received. A special inspector general may be needed.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — June 17, 2022

Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/Getty Images

Will the United States Provide Long-Range Rockets to Ukraine?

Ukrainian officials have been asking for long-range rocket systems, and the administration seems inclined to provide them, but Russia objects. What are these systems? What capabilities would they provide, and why are they controversial?

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — May 31, 2022

Photo: Maj. Joseph Bush/ 41st Field Artillery Brigade