Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

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Secretary Esper Previews the Future Navy

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper recently proposed long-awaited changes to the Navy's force structure. CSIS’s Mark Cancian and Adam Saxton analyze the new plan, its likely costs, greater context, and potential opposition.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and Adam Saxton — October 8, 2020

Photo: Navy Seaman Apprentice Oswald Felix Jr.

The Diversity of Russia’s Military Power

This volume is comprised of the work by CSIS executive education program participants on Russian strategy and history, as well as the elements and resources behind Russian military power.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Cyrus Newlin — September 25, 2020

Photo: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff/Flickr

The Marine Corps’ Radical Shift toward China

The Marine Corps is making major changes to align itself with the national defense strategy and prepare for a future conflict in the Western Pacific. But this new Marine Corps faces major risks if the future is different from that envisioned.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — March 25, 2020

Photo: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cp. Israel

Use of Military Forces in the COVID-19 Emergency

With COVID-19 sweeping across the United States, CSIS’s Mark Cancian discusses what the U.S. military can, and cannot, do as part of the response.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian — March 17, 2020

Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The Spectacular & Public Collapse of Navy Force Planning

Trapped by a 355-ship force goal, a reduced budget, and a fixed counting methodology, the Navy can’t find a feasible solution to the difficult question of how its forces should be structured.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Adam Saxton — January 30, 2020

Photo: Class Ryan D. McLearnon/U.S. Navy via Getty Images

U.S. Military Forces in FY 2020: SOF, Civilians, Contractors, and Nukes

Military forces consist not just of the services, but also special operations forces, civilians, contractors, and non-DOD agencies. In his final white paper in a series on U.S. forces, CSIS’s Mark Cancian analyzes recent changes to these other national security elements.

Report by Mark F. Cancian — October 24, 2019

Photo: Department of Defense