China is More Likely to Blockade Taiwan Than Invade the Island in the Next Ten Years: A Debate with Mr. Lonnie Henley and Dr. Phil Saunders

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On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.

For this debate, the proposition is “China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade the island in the next ten years” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Lonnie Henley, who is a senior fellow for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Phil Saunders, who is the director of the Center for the Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University.

To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at

Bonny Lin
Director, China Power Project and Senior Fellow, Asian Security