Defense Budget Analysis

The Defense Budget Analysis Program leads the Center’s efforts to provide in-depth, nonpartisan research and analysis of defense funding issues

Led by fellow Seamus Daniels, the program explores trends in the overall defense budget, military readiness, force structure, defense acquisitions, and military compensation in a broader effort to assess the alignment of the country’s defense strategy and its resources.

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Photo: Architect of the Capitol

Photo: Architect of the Capitol

What Are Key Milestones and Decisions Affecting U.S. Defense Spending in 2025?

Congress and the White House face a host of fiscal challenges and decisions over the course of 2025—including the debt ceiling, appropriations for both FY 2025 and FY 2026, and tax cuts—that will impact U.S. defense spending.

Commentary by Seamus P. Daniels — February 14, 2025

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Trump’s Defense Budget: Results and Expert Predictions

A study of strategic intelligence forecasting inside government showed a very good track record, much better than what Tetlock found (David R. Mandel and Alan Barnes, “Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v.111, No. 30).

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Todd Harrison, Andrew Philip Hunter, Melissa Dalton, and Kathleen H. Hicks — January 23, 2017

Defense Reform in a New Administration

Within the span of one week in December, President-elect Donald Trump turned the defense establishment on its head with three tweets.

Report by Todd Harrison — January 18, 2017

How much should we spend on defense?

President-elect Trump will take office with budget caps already in place that extend through his entire first term. Neither George W. Bush nor Barack Obama entered office with these kinds of statutory constraints on fiscal policy. The budget caps limit the budget options available to the next president and will force him to begin negotiating with Congress right away for some sort of deal that raises the caps.

Report by Todd Harrison, Mark F. Cancian, and Andrew Philip Hunter — December 15, 2016

Analysis of the FY 2017 Defense Budget

The Obama administration’s FY 2017 budget—the eighth and final budget submitted by the administration—requests a total of $619.5 billion in funding for national defense.

Report by Todd Harrison — April 20, 2016