Competition Lab

This Futures Lab series tracks how authoritarian regimes leverage illicit networks and gray zone tactics to undermine democracies and informs strategic responses through open-source data and analytics.

Great power competition has never been purely about military force. Political warfare and economic coercion have historically shaped how rival networks exert their influence and advance their interests. In the twenty-first century, authoritarian states and their surrogates use illicit trade flows and subterfuge to hold advanced democracies hostage and exploit the Global South. From Russian ghost fleets bypassing sanctions and China’s use of gray zone tactics to cartels that masquerade as states in Venezuela, crafting competitive strategies to confront these regimes requires understanding more than the balance of military power. It requires fusing open-source data and deploying novel AI agents to deny authoritarian access and influence.

In this new series, the CSIS Futures Lab seeks to go on the offense. Working alongside a mix of public and private sector actors, the lab will publicize where, when, why, and how authoritarian regimes seek to advance in the gray zone. The intent will be to speak truth to power and provide a focal point for larger coordination, ranging from new analysis to private briefings and roundtables with a mix of public and private sector partners. The purpose is simple: transparency. When authoritarian states like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela find their efforts to use illicit networks exposed, it limits their freedom of maneuver. The U.S. government and its partners and allies can craft responses. The private sector can better price exposure risk, thus changing the cost of doing business in a way that promotes free societies and capitalism.

This project page is made possible by generous support from General Atomics.

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Photo: agratitudesign/Adobe Stock

Photo: agratitudesign/Adobe Stock

Signals in the Swarm: The Data Behind China’s Maritime Gray Zone Campaign Near Taiwan

This brief presents a new data-driven framework for identifying Chinese maritime gray zone activity near Taiwan, using AIS tracking, fishing effort data, and military drill zones to flag civilian vessels likely engaged in state-directed operations.

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Brief by Jose M. Macias III and Benjamin Jensen — October 8, 2025

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What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Countering Russia’s ghost fleet requires more than sanctions. A coordinated strategy using open-source intelligence, maritime law, and multilateral diplomacy can impose real costs on illicit trade networks fueling Moscow’s war—without escalating military conflict.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — December 15, 2025

Deterrence Runs on Rare Earths

The future of deterrence won’t be decided by tanks or troops alone—but by tiny, rare earth elements that power AI, drones, and defense systems. The United States’ strategic edge depends on securing what’s buried beneath the surface.

Commentary by Jake Kwon and Benjamin Jensen — July 24, 2025

Protecting Our Edge: Trade Secrets and the Global AI Arms Race

As AI enters the agentic era, the U.S. faces a critical choice: lead with innovation or fall to IP theft and espionage. As illicit tactics threaten American AI leadership, it will be important to bolster cyber defenses to protect both U.S AI and IP security from adversaries.

Congressional Testimony by Benjamin Jensen — May 7, 2025