Competition Lab

This Futures Lab series tracks how authoritarian regimes leverage illicit networks and gray zone tactics to undermine democracies and informs strategic responses through open-source data and analytics.

Great power competition has never been purely about military force. Political warfare and economic coercion have historically shaped how rival networks exert their influence and advance their interests. In the twenty-first century, authoritarian states and their surrogates use illicit trade flows and subterfuge to hold advanced democracies hostage and exploit the Global South. From Russian ghost fleets bypassing sanctions and China’s use of gray zone tactics to cartels that masquerade as states in Venezuela, crafting competitive strategies to confront these regimes requires understanding more than the balance of military power. It requires fusing open-source data and deploying novel AI agents to deny authoritarian access and influence.

In this new series, the CSIS Futures Lab seeks to go on the offense. Working alongside a mix of public and private sector actors, the lab will publicize where, when, why, and how authoritarian regimes seek to advance in the gray zone. The intent will be to speak truth to power and provide a focal point for larger coordination, ranging from new analysis to private briefings and roundtables with a mix of public and private sector partners. The purpose is simple: transparency. When authoritarian states like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela find their efforts to use illicit networks exposed, it limits their freedom of maneuver. The U.S. government and its partners and allies can craft responses. The private sector can better price exposure risk, thus changing the cost of doing business in a way that promotes free societies and capitalism.

This project page is made possible by generous support from General Atomics.

Contact Information

Featured Content

Photo: Aleksandra Sova/Adobe Stock

Photo: Aleksandra Sova/Adobe Stock

From the Petrodollar to the Tokendollar: Economic Statecraft in the AI Era

AI tokens are emerging as the currency of a new international order. Benjamin Jensen argues that the United States should create a “tokendollar” linking AI infrastructure, futures markets, and dollar-backed stablecoins to extend U.S. financial power into the AI era.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — August 25, 2026

All Competition Lab Content

Filter by

1 - 10 of 38 results

From the Petrodollar to the Tokendollar: Economic Statecraft in the AI Era

AI tokens are emerging as the currency of a new international order. Benjamin Jensen argues that the United States should create a “tokendollar” linking AI infrastructure, futures markets, and dollar-backed stablecoins to extend U.S. financial power into the AI era.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — August 25, 2026

Economic Warfare and Military Power

As strategic competition intensifies, the United States needs a clearer way to use finance, trade, industrial policy, and regulation to strengthen its own defense base while making it harder for adversaries to turn economic strength into military power. 

Brief by Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton — May 26, 2026

How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days

The United States cannot win modern wars on the battlefield alone. To counter adversaries’ information operations, Washington needs faster public diplomacy, stronger information coordination, and credible messaging before disinformation spreads.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Nico Vacca, and Jose M. Macias III — May 5, 2026

The Geometry of Coercion: Tracking the PRC’s Maritime and Air Pressure on Taiwan

China’s rising maritime and air incursions around Taiwan reveal a sustained coercion campaign designed to normalize pressure below the threshold of war, raising urgent questions about how the United States and its allies can shift from reactive responses to persistent deterrence.

Report by Jose M. Macias III and Benjamin Jensen — May 5, 2026

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Countering Russia’s ghost fleet requires more than sanctions. A coordinated strategy using open-source intelligence, maritime law, and multilateral diplomacy can impose real costs on illicit trade networks fueling Moscow’s war—without escalating military conflict.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — December 15, 2025