Futures Lab
Embracing data science, artificial intelligence/machine learning and alternative analysis to revolutionize policy-driven research
Banner image: Dr. Benjamin Jensen/Created using the Midjourney web app
The Futures Lab
Our goal is to add empirical rigor to foresight and policy analysis through the integration of computational social science methods. A changing world calls for new research methods that unlock diverse perspectives and creativity. While our focus is on the changing character of competition and conflict, our scholars have helped teams unlock insights on geoeconomics, innovation, development, migration, and human security as well. We conduct independent research, convene experts from diverse backgrounds, and offer robust reports with tailored policy recommendations that inform decision-making in a rapidly evolving landscape. Bring us your questions, concerns, and data and we will help you visualize and describe alternative futures.
Data Science and Forecasting
Look back to look ahead. The baseline prediction for any possible future starts with understanding past patterns and trends. The Futures Lab uses a diverse mix of statistical forecasting techniques to analyze how systems can change over time.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
Elevate insight with AI. The Futures Lab employs a novel mix of AI/ML models, ranging from natural language processing to generative AI models to analyze continuity and change in the trends almost certain to create new geopolitical challenges in the 21st century. Our scholars have the technical training to tailor models to our partners specific needs and questions. Recently, the Futures Lab, in partnership with Scale AI, incorporates advanced large language models (LLMs) to analyze security and international affairs. Using Scale AI's Donovan Platform, we tailor LLMs to uncover deep insights in complex global security issues, aligning AI capabilities with strategic objectives. This initiative enhances our research in areas like strategic-level wargaming and domain-specific decision support, offering nuanced, data-driven strategies for a rapidly evolving world.
Red Teaming and Wargaming
Embrace uncertainty and creativity. When the future is uncertain, outliers reign. The Futures Lab uses a mix of red teaming and wargaming to help partners understand strategy as a complex system. Our approach to gaming integrates data analysis and controlled experiments to help partners generate and evaluate new strategies.
Scenario Modelling
Show the context surrounding decision making. The Futures Lab employs multiple scenario-generation and modeling techniques to stress test possible policy solutions to major global challenges. These methods range from traditional trend-based scenarios to formal modeling and campaign analysis.
This program is made possible through the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); United Nations: International Organization for Migration (IOM); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); General Atomics; Lockheed Martin; Meta; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); Carnegie Corporation of New York; Gray Space Strategies; and Scale AI.
Contact Information
- Jose M. Macias III
- Associate Data Fellow, Futures Lab, Defense and Security Department
- JMacias@csis.org
Contact Information
- H. Andrew Schwartz
- Chief Communications Officer
- 202.775.3242
- aschwartz@csis.org
- Samuel Cestari
- Media Relations Coordinator, External Relations
- 202.775.7317
- scestari@csis.org
All Futures Lab Content
Filter by
Pulling Their Weight: The Data on NATO Responsibility Sharing
Report by Kathleen McInnis, Daniel Fata, Benjamin Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III — February 22, 2024
It Is Time to Democratize Wargaming Using Generative AI
Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Dan Tadross — February 22, 2024
Anthony Cordesman’s Enduring Approach to Strategy Analysis
Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — February 14, 2024
Why Pausing LNG Exports Is Bad Foreign Policy
Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — February 12, 2024
Shaping the Future of Federal Cybersecurity: Insights from FCEBs
Event — February 6, 2024
Beyond Bullets and Bombs: The Rising Tide of Information War in International Affairs
Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Divya Ramjee — December 20, 2023
CSIS Futures Lab Announces Partnership with Scale AI
Blog Post — November 15, 2023
CISA's Evolving .gov Mission: Report Rollout Event
Event — October 23, 2023
CISA's Evolving .gov Mission: Defending the United States' Federal Executive Agency Networks
Report by Benjamin Jensen, Devi Nair, Yasir Atalan, and Jose M. Macias III — October 23, 2023
How the Chinese Communist Party Uses Cyber Espionage to Undermine the American Economy
Congressional Testimony by Benjamin Jensen — October 19, 2023