Gray Zone Project

The United States is being confronted with the liabilities of its strengths. Given the significant costs of engaging the United States in combat, and the growing range of indirect and non-military tools at their disposal, rivals are seeking ways to achieve relative gains without triggering escalation. From fake news and online troll farms to terrorist financing and paramilitary provocations, these approaches often lie in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare—the “gray zone.”

The gray zone phenomenon is also referred to as hybrid threats, sharp power, political warfare, malign influence, irregular warfare, and modern deterrence. Although it reflects an age-old approach, it is newly broad in its application. Today, the toolkit for coercion below the level of direct warfare includes information operations, political coercion, economic coercion, cyber operations, proxy support, and provocation by state-controlled Forces. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, as well as non-state actors, are increasingly turning to these strategies to overcome U.S. strengths in global diplomacy, law, and commerce.

CSIS’s International Security Program has analyzed these threats and how the United States can best deter, campaign in, and respond to gray zone approaches. Meet our scholars and explore our work here.

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By Other Means – Part II: U.S. Priorities in the Gray Zone

Geopolitical competition is increasingly playing out in the space beyond diplomacy and short of conventional war, sometimes referred to as the gray zone. The nature of this compe­tition is forcing the United States to confront the liabilities of its strengths. This report assesses current U.S. government actions to deter, campaign through, and respond to competitors’ gray zone tactics.

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The Darker Shade of Gray: A New War Unlike Any Other

The United States Commission on National Security in the 21st Century (better known as the Hart-Rudman Commission) darkly concluded that “Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers.” 

Critical Questions by Nathan Freier — July 27, 2018

What Works: Countering Gray Zone Coercion

U.S. leadership in an era of gray zone competition will require more than the largest economy or strongest military. National security begins at home and the United States must reinvigorate confidence in its institutions, its leaders, and its policy approaches.

Brief by John Schaus, Heather A. Conley, Michael Matlaga, and Kathleen H. Hicks — July 16, 2018

What Works: Countering Gray Zone Tactics

This half-day conference will examine historical examples of both successful and unsuccessful attempts by the West to counter malicious activity in the gray zone and discuss how the West can adapt going forward.

Event — May 15, 2018

Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia

In the past decade, tensions in Asia have risen as Beijing has become more assertive in maritime disputes with its neighbors and the United States.

Report by Michael J. Green, John Schaus, Jake Douglas; Zack Cooper , and Kathleen H. Hicks — May 9, 2017