Banner image: Dr. Benjamin Jensen/Created using the Midjourney web app
The Futures Lab
Our goal is to add empirical rigor to foresight and policy analysis through the integration of computational social science methods. A changing world calls for new research methods that unlock diverse perspectives and creativity. While our focus is on the changing character of competition and conflict, our scholars have helped teams unlock insights on geoeconomics, innovation, development, migration, and human security as well. We conduct independent research, convene experts from diverse backgrounds, and offer robust reports with tailored policy recommendations that inform decision-making in a rapidly evolving landscape. Bring us your questions, concerns, and data and we will help you visualize and describe alternative futures.
Data Science and Forecasting
Look back to look ahead. The baseline prediction for any possible future starts with understanding past patterns and trends. The Futures Lab uses a diverse mix of statistical forecasting techniques to analyze how systems can change over time.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
Elevate insight with AI. The Futures Lab employs a novel mix of AI/ML models, ranging from natural language processing to generative AI models to analyze continuity and change in the trends almost certain to create new geopolitical challenges in the 21st century. Our scholars have the technical training to tailor models to our partners specific needs and questions. Recently, the Futures Lab, in partnership with Scale AI, incorporates advanced large language models (LLMs) to analyze security and international affairs. Using Scale AI's Donovan Platform, we tailor LLMs to uncover deep insights in complex global security issues, aligning AI capabilities with strategic objectives. This initiative enhances our research in areas like strategic-level wargaming and domain-specific decision support, offering nuanced, data-driven strategies for a rapidly evolving world.
Red Teaming and Wargaming
Embrace uncertainty and creativity. When the future is uncertain, outliers reign. The Futures Lab uses a mix of red teaming and wargaming to help partners understand strategy as a complex system. Our approach to gaming integrates data analysis and controlled experiments to help partners generate and evaluate new strategies.
Show the context surrounding decision making. The Futures Lap employs multiple scenario-generation and modeling techniques to stress test possible policy solutions to major global challenges. These methods range from traditional trend-based scenarios to formal modeling and campaign analysis.
This program is made possible through the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); United Nations: International Organization for Migration (IOM); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); General Atomics; Lockheed Martin; Meta; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); Carnegie Corporation of New York; Gray Space Strategies; and Scale AI.
All Futures Lab Content
Blog Post — November 15, 2023
Event — October 23, 2023
Report by Benjamin Jensen Devi Nair Yasir Atalan and Jose M. Macias — October 23, 2023
Brief by Benjamin Jensen Daniel F. Runde and Thomas Bryja — September 29, 2023
Congressional Testimony by Benjamin Jensen — September 19, 2023
Event — September 12, 2023
Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen — July 18, 2023
Brief by Grace B. Mueller Benjamin Jensen Brandon Valeriano Ryan C. Maness and Jose M. Macias — July 13, 2023
Report by Anthony H. Cordesman Benjamin Jensen and Adrian Bogart — May 24, 2023
Commentary by Emily Harding and Benjamin Jensen — April 17, 2023