Futures Lab

Embracing data science, artificial intelligence/machine learning and alternative analysis to revolutionize policy-driven research

Banner image: Dr. Benjamin Jensen/Created using the Midjourney web app

The Futures Lab

Our goal is to add empirical rigor to foresight and policy analysis through the integration of computational social science methods. A changing world calls for new research methods that unlock diverse perspectives and creativity. While our focus is on the changing character of competition and conflict, our scholars have helped teams unlock insights on geoeconomics, innovation, development, migration, and human security as well. We conduct independent research, convene experts from diverse backgrounds, and offer robust reports with tailored policy recommendations that inform decision-making in a rapidly evolving landscape. Bring us your questions, concerns, and data and we will help you visualize and describe alternative futures.

Data Science and Forecasting

Look back to look ahead. The baseline prediction for any possible future starts with understanding past patterns and trends. The Futures Lab uses a diverse mix of statistical forecasting techniques to analyze how systems can change over time.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Elevate insight with AI. The Futures Lab employs a novel mix of AI/ML models, ranging from natural language processing to generative AI models to analyze continuity and change in the trends almost certain to create new geopolitical challenges in the 21st century. Our scholars have the technical training to tailor models to our partners specific needs and questions. Recently, the Futures Lab, in partnership with Scale AI, incorporates advanced large language models (LLMs) to analyze security and international affairs. Using Scale AI's Donovan Platform, we tailor LLMs to uncover deep insights in complex global security issues, aligning AI capabilities with strategic objectives. This initiative enhances our research in areas like strategic-level wargaming and domain-specific decision support, offering nuanced, data-driven strategies for a rapidly evolving world.

Red Teaming and Wargaming

Embrace uncertainty and creativity. When the future is uncertain, outliers reign. The Futures Lab uses a mix of red teaming and wargaming to help partners understand strategy as a complex system. Our approach to gaming integrates data analysis and controlled experiments to help partners generate and evaluate new strategies.

Scenario Modelling

Show the context surrounding decision making. The Futures Lab employs multiple scenario-generation and modeling techniques to stress test possible policy solutions to major global challenges. These methods range from traditional trend-based scenarios to formal modeling and campaign analysis.

This program is made possible through the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); United Nations: International Organization for Migration (IOM); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); General Atomics; Lockheed Martin; Meta; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); Carnegie Corporation of New York; Gray Space Strategies; and Scale AI.

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All Futures Lab Content

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Older and Wiser: Defining NATO’s Strategy for Global Aging

In the future, global aging will require NATO to reassess operational readiness, recruitment, and resilience through the deployment of innovative policies that account for shrinking workforces and aging populations at home and new population centers abroad.

Commentary by Eric Palomaa — July 12, 2024

Audio Briefs

Raising an Army of Drones

An audio version of “Raising an Army of Drones,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

NATO and Cyber: Outrunning the Bear

An audio version of “NATO and Cyber: Outrunning the Bear,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Suzanne Spaulding with Mark Montgomery. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Suzanne Spaulding and Mark Montgomery — July 10, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

NATO and Prototyping Warfare

An audio version of “NATO and Prototyping Warfare,” a new commentary by Arnel P. David and CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Arnel P. David and Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

Readying NATO’s Defense Industrial Base for Its 100th Anniversary

An audio version of “Readying NATO’s Defense Industrial Base for Its 100th Anniversary,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Audrey Aldisert and Cynthia Cook. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Audrey Aldisert and Cynthia Cook — July 10, 2024

Audio Briefs

A New Nordic NATO?

In the future, the new Nordic unity caused by Finland and Sweden’s accessions will draw NATO’s political and military-strategic attention more toward the greater Nordic space, ranging from the Arctic over Scandinavia to the Baltic Sea area.

Commentary by Henrik Breitenbauch and Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024

The Neglected Domain

In the future, NATO will need to field a larger, more capable fleet that can deny Russia the ability to hold member states at risk in the maritime domain and degrade Moscow’s ability to conduct long-range cruise missile strikes.

Commentary by Mark Montgomery and Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024

The Future of NATO’s Southern Flank

In the future, NATO must see its southern and eastern flanks as interconnected geopolitical spaces. Such a view necessitates adopting a holistic strategy that minimizes intra-alliance confrontations and builds deeper political integration with the southern flank.

Commentary by Yasir Atalan — July 10, 2024

Extending Air Defense East

In the future, NATO will employ a novel mix of unmanned aircraft and networked launchers to create an air defense umbrella along its eastern and southern flank that denies Russia the ability to hold greater Europe hostage.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024

The Future of NATO’s Eastern Flank

In the future, NATO will bolster its eastern flank by enhancing forward deterrence, integrating advanced air and missile defense systems, and developing long-range strike capabilities to ensure the security and sovereignty of member states.

Commentary by Piotr Niec and Benjamin Jensen — July 10, 2024