2014 Conference Presentations

CAPSTONE CONFERENCE

Offutt AFB, Nebraska

Panel 1: Next Steps for Arms Control

• Baruch to Barack: Hegemony and the Politics of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, Rebecca Davis Gibbons
• 21st Century Nuclear Arms Control: A Framework for the Next Generation of Treaty Negotiations and Treaty Negotiators, Justin Anderson
• The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Adam Mount

Panel 2: Current State of Affairs: Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation

• Escalation Links in South Asia: From Sub-Conventional to Nuclear War, Elizabeth Whitfield
• Nuclear Material at Risk: The Case for Threat Reduction in South Asia, Kaitlyn Duffy
• Consequences of Iranian Proliferation: Dominoes in the Middle East?, Evan Thompson
• Railing Against the West: Russia's Reintroduction of Missile Trains, Timothy Stafford

Panel 3: Technology and the Human Effect

• An Overview of Hydrodynamic Testing, Challenges and Advancements in Underwriting a State’s Nuclear Stockpile, Paul Willis-Patel
• Assessing Risk and the Human Factor in Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe, Elise Rowan
• Employment of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: Proposed Criteria for Use, Abel Olguin

Panel 4: Strategic Stability and Deterrence in the 21st Century

• U.S. Nuclear Deterrent: Does Size Matter?, Greg Terryn
• Going Monadic? Debating the Future of France’s Aircraft-Delivered Nuclear Weapons, Nicolas Giacometti
• America’s Delicate Dance between Deterrence and Assurance, John Warden

 FALL CONFERENCE

Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, Kirtland Air Force Base: Albuquerque, New Mexico

Agenda

Panel 1: U.S. Bilateral Relations with China and Russia

• The Prospects for U.S.-Russian Collaboration after Ukraine, Matthew Fargo
• U.S. Russian Arms Control Relations: Nuclear Reductions, Treaty Compliance, and Missile Defense, Thomas Karako
• U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture in Northeast Asia: Maintaining Stability in an Increasingly Unstable Environment, Zachary Hosford
• Operational-Level Engagement and Confidence/Trust-Building in the U.S.-Chinese Relationship, Tong Zhao

Panel 2: New Issues for Nonproliferation and Disarmament Verification

• Implications of the U.S. Unilaterally Disarming, Curtis Chambellan
• How the Evolution of 3-D Printing Presents the Newest Challenge to Nonproliferation Norms and Global Export Controls, Aaron Richards
• Strategic Trade Controls and its Challenges: The Plight and Prospects of Transparency, Evan Thompson
• Verification and Monitoring Technologies: Developing R&D Strategies for the Full Lifecycle, Kelsey Hartigan

Panel 3: Developing Technologies for Nuclear Weapons Analysis

• How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (Virtually): Use of Virtual Reality Simulations in Nuclear Treaty Verification, Cervando Bañuelos
• An Analysis of Methods to Determine Nuclear Weapons Yield Using Digital Fireball Films, Captain David Lynes
• Estimating Fireball Temperature from a Nuclear Detonation Using Digital Film, Major Matthew Gettings
• Defining a Methodology for Data Analysis Using Streak Films, Major Christopher Lenyk
• Neutron Shielding Effectiveness of Multifunctional Composite Materials, Major Anthony D. Marchand

Panel 4: Case Studies in Nonproliferation & Disarmament Affairs

• Al Qaeda's Nuclear Quest, Bennett Seftel
• Israel and the CTBT: Creating Conditions for Ratification, Anne-Marie Riitsaar
• Brazil and the Multilateral Nonproliferation Regime, Lindsay Miller
• Scottish Independence and Trident Nuclear Weapons: Why the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Should Prepare for Scottish Disarmament, James McKeon

Panel 5: Regional Nuclear Dynamics & Security Concerns

• Nonproliferation in the Middle East: Russia's Contribution to Multilateral Efforts, Lily Vaccaro
• Escalation Links in South Asia: From Sub-Conventional to Nuclear War, Elizabeth Whitfield
• Preparing for Regime Collapse in Pakistan: The Case for Threat Reduction, Kaitlyn Duffy
• Asymmetric Conflict and Tactical Nuclear Weapons in South Asia, Julia Thompson

SUMMMER CONFERENCE 

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Agenda

Panel 1: Strategic Stability, Deterrence, and Nuclear Force Structure

• The Shaky Foundations of Contemporary Strategic Stability, Dumitru Minzarari
• Future of Strategic Stability in South Asia: Opportunity for the U.S., Rabia Akhtar
• Role of Stockpile Confidence in Deterrence, Aaron Miles
• Arguing in Perfect Harmony: A Search for Order among U.S. Nuclear Force Structure Evaluation Criteria, Jarret Lafleur

Panel 2: Past and Potential Challenges to Nonproliferation

• Test Results: Lessons from the U.S. Response to Nuclear Testing Events, Timothy Westmyer
• Begin’s Sleepless Nights: Israel’s Attack on the Osirak Reactor, David D. Palkki
• Contextualizing Islamic Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons, Bennett Seftel
• The Future that Came: Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the Budapest Memorandum, Mariana Budjeryn

Technical Talk, “Strategic Latency,” Zachary Davis and Bob Yamamoto  

Panel 3: New Approaches to Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation

• “Beyond the Beep”: Rethinking Traditional Counter Nuclear Smuggling Operations and the Importance of Interagency Coordination both Before and After Detection, Aryn Brooke Weinberg
• Implementation Considerations of National Nuclear Forensics Libraries (NNFL), Jerry Davydov
• Looking Forward: the Need for Alternatives to Helium-3 in IAEA Safeguards, Naomi Egel and Apratim Vidyarthi
• Remote Sensing and the Parchin Military Site in Iran, Thomas Devine

Evening Keynote, “Global Zero: An Assessment,” Brad Roberts

Morning Keynote, “Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Nuclear Taboos, Traditions, and Use,” Scott Sagan

Panel 4: Maintaining and Modernizing the Nuclear Enterprise

• The National Nuclear Narrative: Essential Steps to Arrest the Decay of U.S. Nuclear Deterrence, Heath Wharton
• An Overview of Hydrodynamic Testing, Challenges and Advancements in Underwriting a States Nuclear Stockpile, Paul Willis-Patel
• The Challenges of Assigning Accurate Costs to the Nuclear Mission, Alexander Gallo

Panel 5: Opportunities and Obstacles for Arms Control and Global Zero

• 21st Century Nuclear Arms Control: A Framework for the Next Generation of Treaty Negotiations -- and Treaty Negotiators, Justin Anderson and Darci McDonald
• The Folly of the ‘Humanitarian Initiative’: Why the Ottawa Process Won’t Ban Nuclear Weapons, Zachary Klein
• Consequences of Nuclear Disarmament Proposals, Adam Mount
• Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Ratify the CTBT, Wesley Neuman

Technical Talk, “Technical Reasons for Testing,” Bruce Goodwin

WINTER CONFERENCE

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, District of Columbia

Agenda

Panel 1: The Politics and Culture of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

• Under Pressure: Congress, Sequestration, and the Trillion-Dollar Triad, Bradley Harris
• U.S. Nuclear Deterrent: Does Size Matter?, Greg Terryn
• The Cusp of Excellence: Nuclear Bomber Culture, Major Charles Goetz

Panel 2: Modern Proliferation Concerns in the Middle East and Global South

• IBSA, Iran and Global (Nuclear) Governance, Michal Onderco
• Transparency Challenges with Middle Eastern Emerging Nuclear Countries, Fareed Yasin
• Consequences of Iranian Proliferation: Dominoes in the Middle East?, Evan Thompson

Panel 3: Technical Developments and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons

• Improving Nuclear Life Extension Program Management: A B61-12 Case Study, Lauren Rutledge
• Hedge Math: Outlining Theoretical Limits on Minimum Stockpile Size across Nuclear Hedging Strategies, Jarret Lafleur
• Employment of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: Proposed Criteria for Use, Abel Olguin

Panel 4: Case Studies in Nuclear Nonproliferation and Strategy

• Going monadic? Debating the Future of France’s Aircraft-delivered Nuclear Weapons, Nicolas Giacometti
• India-US Strategic Partnership: Implications for South Asia, Saira Bano
• India’s Export Controls Risk a Diversion of WMD Materials, Shawna Russo

Panel 5: Maintaining a Balance

• America’s Delicate Dance between Deterrence and Assurance, John Warden
• Assessing Risk and the Human Factor in Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe, Elise Rowan
• The Goldilocks Zone of Ballistic Missile Defense, Dean Ensley

Panel 6: Nonproliferation Policy, Politics, and Modeling

• Congress & US Nonproliferation Policy: A Case Study of the CTBT, Rizwan Asghar
• Baruch to Barack: Hegemony and the Politics of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, Rebecca Davis Gibbons
• Addressing Challenges to Contemporary Nonproliferation Models and Methods through Bayesian Analysis and Agent Based Modeling, Royal Elmore