Emerging Trends in Chemical Weapons Usage

Interpreting chemical weapons use and the likelihood of chemical weapons proliferation in the Middle East.

The world may be on the brink of a new era of chemical weapons proliferation. Repeated chemical weapons attacks by the governments of Russia and Syria have undermined three factors traditionally thought to discourage the use of such weapons: lack of benefit, taboo, and the threat of retaliation. These governments’ “successful” use of these weapons, combined with a Middle East with a smaller U.S. security footprint, could make the region ripe for a new wave of CW proliferation similar to one that prevailed in the 1960s-1980s. This study will examine the drivers for the sustained return of chemical weapons use in the Middle East and suggest tools for the U.S. Government to deter, monitor and respond.