Southeast Asia from Scott Circle

Our signature monthly newsletter brings you all you need to know about developments in Southeast Asia that move the dial on U.S. policy and interests

Each issue features a lead commentary from CSIS scholars, key updates from the region, and a survey of upcoming events hosted by CSIS relevant to Southeast Asia. To subscribe, please provide the requested information here.

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Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Indonesian Presidential Politics Begins to Heat Up 18 Months before Elections

Indonesia’s April 2019 general elections are still 18 months away, but the potential challengers to incumbent president Joko Widodo—popularly known as “Jokowi”—are beginning to emerge and hone their campaign narratives. Candidates for the 2019 presidential election will not be officially announced until next September, but the jockeying between likely contenders is already impacting Indonesia’s domestic stability and foreign policy. 

Newsletter by Geoffrey Hartman — October 26, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Singapore PM Lee Visits Washington as Trump Readies for His Asia Debut

Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, will meet U.S. president Donald Trump at the White House on October 23—the fourth Southeast Asian leader to do so this year. Following visits by Vietnam’s Nguyen Xuan Phuc (May), Malaysia’s Najib Razak (September), and Thailand’s Prayuth Chan-ocha (early October), Lee’s visit distinguishes itself through its timing and the mature and stable nature of the U.S.-Singapore relationship.

Newsletter by Shannon Hayden — October 13, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Prayuth’s White House Visit Expected to Kick-start Normalization of Thai-U.S. Relations

Thai prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s visit to the White House on October 2 could mark a significant step toward normalizing Thai-U.S. relations, which have been strained since the Thai general toppled an elected government in May 2014. Washington responded by suspending some military aid and downgrading, although not canceling, military exercises, including Cobra Gold, the largest multilateral exercise in Asia.

Newsletter by Murray Hiebert — September 29, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Friends of Indonesia Should Be Wary of the Government's Slow Erosion of Democratic Norms



Indonesian president Joko Widodo—commonly known as “Jokowi”—in early August addressed criticism that his government is taking an authoritarian turn with a joke, asking the crowd at speeches in East Jakarta and Solo: “Do I have the face of a dictator?” The joke reportedly went over well for the humble Indonesian president and effectively undercut some of his more hyperbolic critics. It also sidestepped some legitimate concerns about his administration’s recent actions and a broader erosion of democratic norms in Jokowi’s Indonesia.

Newsletter by Geoffrey Hartman — August 10, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: A Dramatic Year Fails to Smooth the South China Sea

Participants at this year’s conference discussed China’s artificial island bases in the Spratlys more for their potential long-term effects than for any use over the past year. The balance between military and civilian activities planned for these dual-use facilities is unclear, as is the nature and tempo of future military operations from them. Disagreement remains over how great the bases’ impact will be both for peacetime competition and in a potential regional conflict.

Newsletter by Gregory B. Poling and Geoffrey Hartman — July 27, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Financial Regulations Hobble U.S. Companies in Myanmar Even after U.S. Sanctions Lifted

Last September 14, while Myanmar’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi was visiting Washington, President Barack Obama announced with considerable hoopla that the United States was lifting its remaining sanctions on Myanmar. Today, nearly nine months later, American companies trying to operate in Myanmar are still hobbled by sections 311 and 312 of the USA Patriot Act, which deal with money laundering and terrorist financing and impose stringent due diligence requirements.

Newsletter by Murray Hiebert — July 14, 2017

Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Marawi Battle Highlights the Perils of a Stalled Peace Process in the Philippines



The ongoing battle for Marawi City—the capital of Lanao del Sur Province on the island of Mindanao—between Philippine government forces and Islamic militants with links to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seems increasingly an important bellwether of growing violence in the Philippines’ restive south. Fears that the breakdown of the government peace process with Islamic insurgents would lead to disillusionment and a return to violence, exacerbated by the influence of international jihadist movements like ISIS, appear to be coming to pass. 

Newsletter by Geoffrey Hartman — June 29, 2017