Transnational Threats Project

The Transnational Threats (TNT) Project focuses on the threat and evolution of terrorist networks and the irregular activities of countries like Russia, Iran, and China

Led by Dr. Seth G. Jones, director and Harold Brown Chair, TNT examines the activities of organizations like the Islamic State, al Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, and far-right and far-left extremist networks—including counterterrorism efforts. TNT also analyzes Russian, Iranian, and Chinese irregular warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage.

TNT conducts extensive fieldwork overseas, compiles and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. TNT also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, TNT translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. TNT’s work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Interactive Map: Russian and Ukrainian Force Disposition

Explore CSIS’s interactive map of the war in Ukraine. See how the force disposition and front lines in Ukraine have changed over time.

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Latest Analysis

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

How Does the Conflict in Sudan Affect Russia and the Wagner Group?

Amid the violent power struggle in Sudan, Russia’s Wagner Group will likely act in defense of its own interests in the country—gold mining, smuggling networks, and the potential to establish a Russian naval base on the Red Sea.

Commentary by Catrina Doxsee — April 20, 2023

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How Does the Conflict in Sudan Affect Russia and the Wagner Group?

Amid the violent power struggle in Sudan, Russia’s Wagner Group will likely act in defense of its own interests in the country—gold mining, smuggling networks, and the potential to establish a Russian naval base on the Red Sea.

Commentary by Catrina Doxsee — April 20, 2023

Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition

Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars combined since World War II. The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month in Ukraine is 35 times greater than the number of Soviet soldiers killed in Afghanistan.

Brief by Seth G. Jones , Riley McCabe , and Alexander Palmer — February 27, 2023

The End of the Beginning in Ukraine

Despite Ukraine’s retaking of Kherson, there are growing calls for Ukraine to end the war through peace talks with Russia. But the conditions are not yet ripe for peace. The United States should continue to aid Ukraine by providing more arms and economic support.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones and Philip G. Wasielewski — November 17, 2022

Will the Ukraine War Reshape the Internet?

The invasion of Ukraine and ensuing geopolitical tensions among global powers have brought sharp attention to the role of the internet in modern conflicts and major gaps in internet governance.

Commentary by Gregory F. Treverton and Pari Esfandiari — October 20, 2022

Mapping Ukraine’s Military Advances

New CSIS battlefield maps indicate Ukrainian forces have—thus far—conducted an effective counterattack that has reconquered roughly 3,700 square miles, slightly smaller than the state of Connecticut.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones , Jared Thompson , and Riley McCabe — September 22, 2022

Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies

Catrina Doxsee, associate director and associate fellow, Transnational Threats Project, testified before the House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee on the topic of Russian private military companies (PMCs) exploiting instability in developing regions.

Congressional Testimony by Catrina Doxsee — September 15, 2022

Zawahiri’s Death and What’s Next for al Qaeda

Ayman al-Zawahiri’s death will challenge al Qaeda to manage a leadership succession and control its global affiliates. In tandem, the United States must grapple with a Taliban that shelters terrorists and work to solve the challenges of counterterrorism operations.

Critical Questions by Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson — August 4, 2022