Transnational Threats Project

The Transnational Threats (TNT) Project focuses on the threat and evolution of terrorist networks and the irregular activities of countries like Russia, Iran, and China

Led by Dr. Seth G. Jones, director and Harold Brown Chair, TNT examines the activities of organizations like the Islamic State, al Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, and far-right and far-left extremist networks—including counterterrorism efforts. TNT also analyzes Russian, Iranian, and Chinese irregular warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage.

TNT conducts extensive fieldwork overseas, compiles and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. TNT also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, TNT translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. TNT’s work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Photo: Paula Bronstein /Getty Images

Photo: Paula Bronstein /Getty Images

The End of the Beginning in Ukraine

Despite Ukraine’s retaking of Kherson, there are growing calls for Ukraine to end the war through peace talks with Russia. But the conditions are not yet ripe for peace. The United States should continue to aid Ukraine by providing more arms and economic support.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones and Philip G. Wasielewski — November 17, 2022

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The End of the Beginning in Ukraine

Despite Ukraine’s retaking of Kherson, there are growing calls for Ukraine to end the war through peace talks with Russia. But the conditions are not yet ripe for peace. The United States should continue to aid Ukraine by providing more arms and economic support.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones and Philip G. Wasielewski — November 17, 2022

Photo: Paula Bronstein /Getty Images

Will the Ukraine War Reshape the Internet?

The invasion of Ukraine and ensuing geopolitical tensions among global powers have brought sharp attention to the role of the internet in modern conflicts and major gaps in internet governance.

Commentary by Gregory F. Treverton and Pari Esfandiari — October 20, 2022

Photo: Syda Productions/Adobe Stock

Mapping Ukraine’s Military Advances

New CSIS battlefield maps indicate Ukrainian forces have—thus far—conducted an effective counterattack that has reconquered roughly 3,700 square miles, slightly smaller than the state of Connecticut.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones , Jared Thompson , and Riley McCabe — September 22, 2022

Photo: CSIS

Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies

Catrina Doxsee, associate director and associate fellow, Transnational Threats Project, testified before the House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee on the topic of Russian private military companies (PMCs) exploiting instability in developing regions.

Congressional Testimony by Catrina Doxsee — September 15, 2022

Zawahiri’s Death and What’s Next for al Qaeda

Ayman al-Zawahiri’s death will challenge al Qaeda to manage a leadership succession and control its global affiliates. In tandem, the United States must grapple with a Taliban that shelters terrorists and work to solve the challenges of counterterrorism operations.

Critical Questions by Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson — August 4, 2022

Photo: HOSHANG HASHIMI/AFP/Getty Images

Assessing Russia’s War in Ukraine

CSIS hosted a discussion on Russia’s military efforts, Ukraine’s military resistance, and opportunities for the United States and its allies and partners to assist Ukraine.

Event by Eliot A. Cohen , Emily Harding , Seth G. Jones , and Michael Vickers — June 16, 2022

Photo: RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP/Getty Images

Russia’s Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare

Russia failed to achieve its main political and military objectives in Ukraine because of poor military planning, significant logistical problems, low combat readiness, and other deficiencies. These challenges will be difficult for the Russian military to fix quickly.

Brief by Seth G. Jones — June 1, 2022

Photo: FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Defense Posture in the Middle East

There are growing calls for a decrease in the United States' military presence in the Middle East. A new analysis from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project assesses posture options in the context of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and other threats in the region.

Report by Seth G. Jones and Seamus P. Daniels — May 19, 2022

Photo: U.S. Air Force Photo by Alex R. Lloyd/Released/iLab/CSIS

Pushed to Extremes: Domestic Terrorism amid Polarization and Protest

The number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots at demonstrations has increased, resulting in escalating violence in U.S. cities between extremists from opposing sides. This analysis updates a CSIS data set to assess trends in domestic terrorism through December 2021.

Brief by Catrina Doxsee , Seth G. Jones , Jared Thompson , Kateryna Halstead , and Grace Hwang — May 17, 2022

Photo: Nathan Howard/Stringer/Getty Images