Director of National Intelligence Private Sector Engagement Initiative
CSIS’ Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG) initiated a discussion in December 2005 with senior members from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on engaging a dialogue between the corporate community and the DNI. This initial meeting was the catalyst for the DNI Private Sector Engagement Initiative launched in October 2006.
This effort is led by the DNI and members from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the National Counterintelligence Executive (NCIX) office and guided by four private sector associations. It includes six workshops over a twelve month period designed to promote exchange, in an unclassified forum, of ideas, experiences, perspectives, and knowledge about broad strategic threats of mutual concern over the next 20 years. The DNI factors the results of the discussions into analytical and planning documents and establish collection priorities against them.
The heart of this effort is a private off-the-record meeting with the DNI and selected CEOs to review the conclusions emerged from the workshops and to generate further discussions on where the next threats are most likely to emerge. The following provides summaries of the workshops recently conducted:
Workshop on Future Challenges for Supply, Demand, and Security in the Global Energy Marketplace (November 6, 2006)
- Restricted access to reserves, rising extraction costs, and other factors will slow oil production growth, leading to higher prices in the face of rising demand.
- The trend toward national control of energy resources will continue, due in part to high oil prices and the perception that previous agreements are restrictive.
- Concentration of supply and demand will be increasingly separated, leading to a new emphasis on delivery infrastructure and choke points.
- China will impact the energy industry more than any other country, with coal remaining its backbone. India has shifted its strategy from self-reliance to energy security, with its foreign policy adapting accordingly. Russia will continue to play politics with its energy resources, domestically, in its near abroad, and increasingly in Asia to further its national interests.
Workshop on Emerging Technologies Could Change the World (December 7, 2006)
- The global economy now utilizes talent in countries where regulatory and legislative disincentives are far less burdensome than in the U.S.
- High R&D costs and few incentives to innovate have driven most U.S. companies out of long term R&D.
- There are not enough engineers and scientists being trained who are U.S. citizens with limited foreign contacts (for clearances). The U.S. is falling behind China, India, and other countries in the training of engineers and scientists.
- All biotechnology is actually dual-use.
Workshop on Political and Economic Stability in China (January 24, 2007)
- Leadership and political stability in China are likely to continue, despite some social instability and tension until the country achieves a greater equity in the standard of living. The most worrisome risk is increasing stratification of classes.
- Significant challenges face China’s leaders, e.g. energy/other resources for the current transformation, environmental degradation, water, health issues, and food. The rule of law and transparency are equally important, especially for investors. For the most part, Chinese leaders seem prepared to address these challenges.
- With favorable economic trends, the leadership will continue policies of incremental reform. They will seek to make conditions profitable for foreign investors, despite strong nationalistic impulses. The risks for investors in China are not necessarily more severe than in many other developing countries, but the difference is that the opportunities and exposure are much higher.
DNI-CEO Engagement Meeting (March 28, 2007)
Meeting with the new DNI, Michael McConnell, and selected CEOs.