Transnational Threats Project

The Transnational Threats (TNT) Project focuses on the threat and evolution of terrorist networks and the irregular activities of countries like Russia, Iran, and China

Led by Dr. Seth G. Jones, director and Harold Brown Chair, TNT examines the activities of organizations like the Islamic State, al Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, and far-right and far-left extremist networks—including counterterrorism efforts. TNT also analyzes Russian, Iranian, and Chinese irregular warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage.

TNT conducts extensive fieldwork overseas, compiles and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. TNT also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, TNT translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. TNT’s work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Interactive Map: Russian and Ukrainian Force Disposition

Explore CSIS’s interactive map of the war in Ukraine. See how the force disposition and front lines in Ukraine have changed over time.

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Latest Analysis

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

How Does the Conflict in Sudan Affect Russia and the Wagner Group?

Amid the violent power struggle in Sudan, Russia’s Wagner Group will likely act in defense of its own interests in the country—gold mining, smuggling networks, and the potential to establish a Russian naval base on the Red Sea.

Commentary by Catrina Doxsee — April 20, 2023

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Tracking the Arrival of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali

As the Wagner Group, Russia’s most infamous private military company, entrenches itself in Mali, the international community should rethink its strategy to stymie Russian irregular efforts in Africa to better reflect local interests and complex histories.

Commentary by Jared Thompson , Catrina Doxsee , and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. — February 2, 2022

Russia's Gamble in Ukraine

Moscow has prepared a growing number of army, navy, and air force units for a possible invasion of Ukraine while also increasing irregular activities like cyber operations and subversion. If peace talks fail, escalation may include measures that are global in nature.

Brief by Seth G. Jones , Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. , and Philip G. Wasielewski — January 27, 2022

Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine

If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International Security Program.

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Philip G. Wasielewski — January 13, 2022

The Iranian and Houthi War against Saudi Arabia

Aided by Iran, the Houthi movement in Yemen is waging an intensifying campaign against civilian infrastructure targets in Saudi Arabia using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and explosive-laden drones, according to a new brief by the Transnational Threats Project.

Brief by Seth G. Jones , Jared Thompson , Danielle Ngo , Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. , and Brian McSorley — December 21, 2021

Moscow’s Continuing Ukrainian Buildup

Russia is continuing to surge military equipment and personnel near its border with Ukraine, and recent satellite imagery reveals increased activity from Russia's 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division and the 41st Combined Arms Army.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones , Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. , and Michelle Macander — November 17, 2021

Examining Extremism: Lashkar-e-Taiba

The Transnational Threats Project’s Examining Extremism series provides an overview and assessment of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Kashmir-focused militant insurgent group that has carried out multiple high-profile attacks in India.

Blog Post — October 28, 2021

Examining Extremism: Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (al Shabaab)

The Transnational Threats Project’s Examining Extremism series provides an overview and assessment of al Shabaab—an Islamist insurgent group that has waged a protracted insurgency in Somalia and launched attacks on regional states in East Africa.

Blog Post by Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson — September 23, 2021

Restoring Momentum to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Wake of Afghanistan

CSIS senior adviser Norman T. Roule analyzes the broader implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and offers recommendations for protecting U.S. credibility and security while rebuilding bipartisanship in U.S. foreign policymaking.

Report by Norman T. Roule — September 13, 2021