Transnational Threats Project

The Transnational Threats (TNT) Project focuses on the threat and evolution of terrorist networks and the irregular activities of countries like Russia, Iran, and China

Led by Dr. Seth G. Jones, director and Harold Brown Chair, TNT examines the activities of organizations like the Islamic State, al Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, and far-right and far-left extremist networks—including counterterrorism efforts. TNT also analyzes Russian, Iranian, and Chinese irregular warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage.

TNT conducts extensive fieldwork overseas, compiles and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. TNT also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, TNT translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. TNT’s work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Photo: iLab/CSIS

Interactive Map: Russian and Ukrainian Force Disposition

Explore CSIS’s interactive map of the war in Ukraine. See how the force disposition and front lines in Ukraine have changed over time.

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Latest Analysis

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

How Does the Conflict in Sudan Affect Russia and the Wagner Group?

Amid the violent power struggle in Sudan, Russia’s Wagner Group will likely act in defense of its own interests in the country—gold mining, smuggling networks, and the potential to establish a Russian naval base on the Red Sea.

Commentary by Catrina Doxsee — April 20, 2023

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War by Proxy: Iran’s Growing Footprint in the Middle East

New analysis by CSIS’s Seth Jones based in part on commercially available satellite imagery shows that the footprint of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force is growing in the Middle East.

Brief by Seth G. Jones — March 11, 2019

Book Launch: Small Wars, Big Data

The CSIS Transnational Threats Project has cordially invited you to a book launch event for Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter & Jacob N. Shapiro's newly released Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict (Princeton University Press). 

Event by Seth G. Jones and Jacob N. Shapiro — December 13, 2018

Book Launch: Rules for Rebels

The CSIS Transnational Threats Project has cordially invited you to a book launch event for Dr. Max Abrahm's newly released Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History (Oxford University Press). 

Event by Seth G. Jones and Max Abrahms — December 5, 2018

The Islamic State and the Persistent Threat of Extremism in Iraq

Taking advantage of ongoing instability and the presence of sectarian militias in Iraq, Islamic State militants are regrouping into an insurgent movement and refocusing their tactics and attacks against the Iraqi government.

Brief by Maxwell B. Markusen — November 30, 2018

The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat

Despite the Islamic State’s loss of territory, our report estimates that as of 2018, there were still between 20,000-30,000 Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria.

Report by Seth G. Jones , Charles Vallee , Clayton Sharb , Hannah Byrne , Danika Newlee , and Nicholas Harrington — November 20, 2018

The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in the United States

The terrorist attack in New Zealand is part of a global pattern of far-right extremism. Read this November 2018 report on the rise of far-right extremism in the United States and Europe.

Brief by Seth G. Jones — November 7, 2018

Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement

Watch Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government's Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she has discussed France's ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.

Event by Seth G. Jones and Muriel Domenach — October 26, 2018

The U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan: The Perils of Withdrawal

The Trump administration should work with the Afghan government and regional powers to reach a political settlement with the Taliban. But it is unclear whether the United States will succeed, as CSIS Transnational Threats Project director Seth Jones writes in his commentary.

Commentary by Seth G. Jones — October 26, 2018