Europe

Europe comprises leading Western powers, challenging transatlantic allies, and some of the world’s repressive regimes. The continent has undergone immense and unprecedented political unification with the formation of the European Union, yet it faces internal divisions, external pressures, and renewed great power rivalry which challenge the transatlantic community. CSIS analysis on Europe explores the region’s evolving role through the lens of multinational institutions, national politics, critical elections, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.

Photo: iLab/CSIS

Photo: iLab/CSIS

What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?

12 CSIS experts join Will to share significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025, and predictions for 2026.

Podcast Episode by Will Todman, Ryan C. Berg, Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, Thomas J. Christensen, Charles Edel, Kristi Govella, Henrietta Levin, Bonny Lin, Oge Onubogu, Gregory B. Poling, Richard M. Rossow, and Mona Yacoubian — January 15, 2026

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Experts

Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Max Bergmann

Max Bergmann

Director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center
Jerry McGinn

Jerry McGinn

Director, Center for the Industrial Base and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
Thibault Denamiel

Thibault Denamiel

Fellow, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business

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State of Play

What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?

12 CSIS experts join Will to share significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025, and predictions for 2026.

Podcast Episode by Will Todman, Ryan C. Berg, Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, Thomas J. Christensen, Charles Edel, Kristi Govella, Henrietta Levin, Bonny Lin, Oge Onubogu, Gregory B. Poling, Richard M. Rossow, and Mona Yacoubian — January 15, 2026

Photo: iLab/CSIS
The Eurofile

Can Europe Keep Ukraine’s Military Afloat without the U.S.?

Max and Donatienne discuss recent comments about the creation of a European standing army before turning to a conversation with Michael Kofman about Europe’s role in the war in Ukraine.

Podcast Episode by Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy — January 15, 2026

CSIS

Why Greenland Could Spur Europe’s Digital Awakening

U.S. pressure over Greenland is pushing Europe to confront a deeper vulnerability: its dependence on U.S. tech. The result could be a profound shift in cloud, AI, and digital sovereignty across the European Union.

Commentary by Emily Benson — January 14, 2026

Trump’s Greenland Ambition Is About U.S. Power, Not Alliances

Trump's push for Greenland isn't about NATO security—it's about controlling vast sums in rare earth minerals. European appeals to Cold War alliances miss the point of his America First doctrine, which prioritizes U.S. economic gain above all else.

Commentary by Sir Robin Niblett — January 14, 2026

Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security

Greenland holds globally significant rare earth resources, but harsh conditions and weak infrastructure have stalled mining. U.S. interests are best advanced not through coercion, but coordinated investment with European allies to counter China’s influence.

Report by Meredith Schwartz and Gracelin Baskaran — January 8, 2026

The Eurofile

Europe’s Frantic Start to 2026

Max and Donatienne discuss last month’s European Council meeting, the mounting US-EU tech fight, and the Trump administration’s increasing pressure on Greenland.

Podcast Episode by Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy — January 8, 2026

CSIS

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

The Eurofile

Europe’s Make-or-Break Summit

Max and Donatienne discuss recent comments by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declaring the end of ‘Pax Americana,’ preview a high-stakes European Council meeting, before turning to a conversation with Dr. Thu Nguyen to discuss the state of democracy in the EU.

Podcast Episode by Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy — December 18, 2025

CSIS