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CSIS experts draw on their IC service to explain and interpret developments in the intelligence community. The International Security Program leads CSIS analysis on intelligence policy.

Photo: fifg via Adobe Stock

Photo: fifg via Adobe Stock

A Russian Bot Farm Used AI to Lie to Americans. What Now?

The United States and its allies disrupted a Russian bot farm that used AI to spread propaganda. With this, Russia has officially made one dystopian prediction about AI come true: it used it to lie better, faster, and more believably.

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Commentary by Emily Harding — July 16, 2024

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Emily Harding

Emily Harding

Director, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director, International Security Program

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Collective Defense in Space

In the future, NATO member states will increase their interoperability to confront space-based threats. New technical standards and exercises will extend the alliance’s collective security framework into new domains.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Erica Lonergan — July 8, 2024

Raising an Army of Drones

In the future, NATO members will adapt to demographic changes and shifting social attitudes toward service by integrating unmanned systems into legacy combat formations. New drone armies will stand watch on the frontier with Russia.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

The Future of Hybrid Warfare

In the future, NATO should embrace the concept of hybrid warfare and incorporate it into how it deters and defends. Starting with resiliency as the first step, NATO can use its strengths to put adversaries at a disadvantage and strengthen its approach to hybrid warfare.

Commentary by Frank Hoffman, Colonel Matt Neumeyer, and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

Maintaining NATO Cohesion in the Gray Zone

In the future, NATO will begin to confront strategic challenges that will create new risks to alliance cohesion brought on by the rise of multi-domain operations. The alliance must now consider developing strategies that include partner nations in novel operations.

Commentary by Brandon Valeriano, Mikkel Storm Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III — July 8, 2024

Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba

In 2023, U.S. officials acknowledged that China operates spy facilities in Cuba, but details have remained scarce. New satellite imagery offers an unprecedented look at four active sites in Cuba most likely to be supporting China’s efforts to spy on the United States.

Digital Report by Matthew P. Funaiole, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Brian Hart, Henry Ziemer, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Ryan C. Berg, and Christopher Hernandez-Roy — July 1, 2024

Using Artificial Intelligence to Rethink the Unified Command Plan

This edition of On Future War explores how the U.S. military can benefit from creative artificial intelligence tools to integrate cyber, space, and electronic warfare, better organizing the national security apparatus and ensuring readiness for modern global competition.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Kathleen McInnis, and Jose M. Macias III — June 17, 2024

Algorithmic Stability: How AI Could Shape the Future of Deterrence

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are reshaping national security and crisis management. This report delves into the future of deterrence and the role of human judgment in an AI-focused crisis simulation.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Jose M. Macias III — June 10, 2024

Government Use of Deepfakes

Will the lure of deepfakes prove irresistible to democratic governments? What questions should governments ask—and who in government should be asking them—when a deepfake is being considered?

Report by Daniel Byman, Daniel W. Linna Jr., and V. S. Subrahmanian — March 12, 2024