Transnational Threats

Led by the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program, the International Security Program, Defending Democratic Institutions, and the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS provides strategic thinking on the range of efforts to counter terrorist groups and their methods across the world.

Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Why Iran Will Escalate

Iran has limited options to respond to the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, making escalation likely, even if Tehran prefers a return to the status quo.

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Commentary by Alexander Palmer — August 8, 2024

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Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Senior Fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program
Catrina Doxsee

Catrina Doxsee

Fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

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The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined, and the risk of war is high. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing weapons against Israel.

Brief by Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe — March 21, 2024

Forward Defense: Strengthening U.S. Force Posture in Europe

The United States needs a robust force posture, including U.S. Army presence, in Europe on NATO’s eastern flank to deter future Russian aggression. A significant downsizing of U.S. forces in Europe would weaken deterrence and embolden a revanchist Russia.

Report by Seth G. Jones, Seamus P. Daniels, Catrina Doxsee, Daniel Fata, and Kathleen McInnis — March 11, 2024

Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2024

Terrorism is no longer the top U.S. defense priority, but the complexity of the global terrorist landscape demands continued vigilance.

Report by Catrina Doxsee, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe — February 8, 2024

2024 Global Forecast: Conflict Zones

In the third installment of the 2024 Global Forecast—A World Dividing—CSIS experts offer their views on what to expect on the battlefield in 2024, from the outlook for Ukraine to critical questions about the long-term consequences of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Digital Report by Mark F. Cancian, Max Bergmann, and Maria Snegovaya, Romina Bandura, Kathleen McInnis, Elizabeth Hoffman, Eliot A. Cohen, Daniel Byman, Jon B. Alterman, Natasha Hall, Emily Harding, Craig Cohen, Alex Kisling — February 2, 2024