Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

As the center of gravity in global politics continues to shift, countries across the Global South are asserting their agency as a diverse set of actors seeking to maximize their leverage and advance their national interests through flexible alignments and pragmatic diplomacy.

The Global South’s growing influence is not inherently adversarial to U.S. interests, but Washington must avoid viewing its demands as a zero-sum game. China and Russia benefit from framing the Global South as a cohesive front committed to undermining the U.S.-led order. Many emerging powers are pursuing tailored strategies that balance sovereignty, economic development, and autonomy in global affairs. To remain competitive and credible, the United States must respond with more adaptive and creative forms of engagement, ones that acknowledge divergent values while identifying new pathways for cooperation.

This CSIS initiative, Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future, unpacks the unique conditions, aspirations, and strategic cultures of key regional powers in the Global South. By analyzing these countries’ worldviews, their approaches to Great Power competition, and their visions for global order, this project will develop a more granular understanding of how the United States can recalibrate its global partnerships in the decades ahead.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

As global power diffuses and multilateralism fractures, a set of rising states increasingly claim the mantle of the “Global South,” reshaping institutions, challenging Western dominance, and forcing the United States to rethink how it engages a rapidly changing world.

Report by Jon B. Alterman and Lily McElwee — December 2, 2025

How Will Rising Powers Reshape the Global Order?

A global power shift is underway, and rising states—not traditional powers—will determine the future rules and direction of the international order.

Rising States, the Global South, and Great Power Competition | Fulcrums of Order

Video — December 2, 2025

Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

Video — December 2, 2025

Executive Summary and Country Briefs

One-Pagers

Video Interviews

Brazil’s Inclusion and Exclusion from the World Order | Ryan C. Berg

India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass | Richard M. Rossow

Indonesia’s Strategic Culture in the Twenty-First Century | Gregory B. Poling

Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage | Ryan C. Berg

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Vision | Jon B. Alterman

South Africa: The Weight of History and Alliances in Its Geopolitical Turbulence | Catherine Nzuki

Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World | Max Bergmann

The United Arab Emirates: From Footnote to Sophisticated Global Partner | Jon B. Alterman

All Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future Content

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Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Mexico straddles between the Global North and Global South, leveraging deep integration with the United States while guarding its sovereignty. This chapter explores how history, inequality, and geopolitics shape Mexico’s quest for strategic autonomy on the global stage.

Brief by Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Bledsoe, and Michael Ferguson — December 2, 2025

Strategic Ambiguity: Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World

Turkey’s push for strategic autonomy sees it balancing NATO ties, courting Russia and China, and asserting regional influence, showing how Erdoğan’s Turkey both shapes and is shaped by a rising multipolar world.

Brief by Jeffrey Mankoff and Max Bergmann — December 2, 2025

Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

As global power diffuses and multilateralism fractures, a set of rising states increasingly claim the mantle of the “Global South,” reshaping institutions, challenging Western dominance, and forcing the United States to rethink how it engages a rapidly changing world.

Report by Jon B. Alterman and Lily McElwee — December 2, 2025

India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

India is reviving old tools in a new global order, leveraging its history, economic rise, and broadening diplomacy to claim leadership of the Global South while navigating intensifying great-power competition.

Brief by Richard M. Rossow — December 2, 2025

The Weight of History and Alliances in South Africa’s Geopolitical Turbulence

South Africa’s foreign policy blends liberation-era ties, post-apartheid grievances, and strategic goals. Amid rising U.S. tensions, Pretoria champions multipolarity, sovereignty, and historical justice to shape its global alliances.

Brief by Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Cameron Hudson, Khasai Makhulo, and Catherine Nzuki — December 2, 2025

Executive Summary – Fulcrums of Order

As rising powers reshape the global landscape, the United States must shift from defending the status quo to building pragmatic coalitions, addressing Global South grievances, and engaging hinge states with a clear understanding of their politics.

Brief by Jon B. Alterman — December 2, 2025

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Vision

Saudi Arabia is redefining its place in a multipolar world, shifting from historical insecurity and dependence on great powers to an ambitious strategy of diversification, self-reliance, and leadership across the Middle East and Global South.

Brief by Leah Hickert — December 2, 2025