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Managing the Long-Term Russian Threat to Europe
Photo: DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP/Getty Images
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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has touched off the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War II. With the fighting grinding on into a fifth year, Russia has overhauled its military capabilities while mobilizing its economy and people for an enduring confrontation. Moscow has been clear from the beginning that the conflict is not just about Ukraine. Rather, Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin sees itself locked in a long-term, systemic conflict with the Euro-Atlantic West. The combination of improving Russian military capabilities and ideological hostility has led many European intelligence analysts, defense planners, and officials to worry that Russia is preparing for a war against European NATO members once the active fighting in Ukraine winds down. These developments are happening at a time when the transatlantic relationship that has served as the bedrock for European security since the Cold War faces unprecedented challenges.
In the coming years, Europe risks finding itself on the front lines of a new conflict with a battle-hardened, aggressive foe. Preventing—and, if necessary, defeating—Russian aggression in the coming years will require a concerted European effort to manage the transition to “Allied-led defense” in a way that does not create additional vulnerabilities, while still communicating strong resolve to Moscow. Learning the right lessons from the war in Ukraine and concluding that war on terms favorable to Kyiv that do not further undermine European security are also critical.
This report is made possible by a grant from the Andrew Carnegie Foundation, formerly Carnegie Corporation of New York. Research for this report was sponsored by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University.
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