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Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Terrorism

AI will not transform terrorism overnight. Its more likely effect is subtler: lowering barriers for extremist propaganda, recruitment, disinformation, and planning while strengthening counterterrorism tools and surveillance risks.

Brief by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian — July 10, 2026

Managing the Long-Term Russian Threat to Europe

The war in Ukraine and changing transatlantic relations are shifting the risk matrix facing Europe. In response, NATO needs to manage the transition to European-led defense, minimizing gaps while communicating strength, resolve, and unity to Moscow.

Report by Jeffrey Mankoff — July 9, 2026

Formula 1 on the Front Lines

Hosting F1 races was supposed to showcase the Gulf's post-oil future. Instead, the Iran war canceled two Grand Prix races and two more are under threat. What does this mean for the future of hosting major global events in contested regions?

Commentary by Emily Harding and Cynthia R. Cook — July 9, 2026

Large Load Reform: How Prepared Are U.S. Grid Operators for the AI Era?

FERC’s June 2026 show-cause orders spotlight a fragmented RTO/ISO policy landscape. This policy matrix assesses where grid operators stand—and where they may need major reforms to meet FERC’s large load interconnection criteria.

Commentary by Joseph Majkut, Alexander Garcia, Chelsey Gilchrist, and Malik Jaffal — July 9, 2026

The Next Phase of USMCA

In this week's column, Bill Reinsch argues that the USMCA review will prolong uncertainty, delaying investment and complicating North American trade negotiations.

Commentary by William Alan Reinsch — July 8, 2026

Keeping Aluminum in Allied Hands: The Stakes of Alcoa’s South Africa Bet

Alcoa has made the largest U.S. mining supply chain investment in South Africa in years. Whether it marks the beginning of a new wave of Western investment will depend on South Africa’s policy choices—and its ability to compete for strategic mining capital.

Commentary by Gracelin Baskaran — July 8, 2026

Russian Attitudes Are Shifting as the War’s Effects Come Home

Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian refineries combine military and economic pressure in ways previous shocks did not. While unlikely to transform public opinion, they raise the Kremlin's domestic costs and create an opportunity for the West to amplify the pressure.

Commentary by Maria Snegovaya and Jade McGlynn — July 7, 2026

The Geography of Coercion: Russian Missile and Drone Campaigns in Ukraine

How does Russia decide where to strike? This analysis maps the evolving geography of Russian missile and drone attacks, revealing how Moscow targets Ukraine’s military, infrastructure, and cities to maximize coercive pressure.

Brief by Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman — July 7, 2026