U.S. and Chinese Soft Power and Influence in Southeast Asia

Amid the lingering economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and an increasingly complex regional and global security landscape, power dynamics in Southeast Asia remain fluid. Under the Biden administration, the United States has eagerly sought to bolster its partnerships and alliances in Southeast Asia. Thus far, Washington’s efforts have been met positively, with opinion polling suggesting that the United States retains more soft power and popularity than China across most of the region. 

But that advantage may be shrinking. China remains a key partner for Southeast Asia and has sought to supplement its growing economic and political clout with educational, professional, and cultural exchanges, alongside other levers of soft power. Given these shifting trends, Washington and its allies need a clear and nuanced understanding of how investments made by each great power in people-to-people ties are reflected in overall soft power and strategic alignment among publics and elites.

This analysis builds on a previous CSIS Southeast Asia Program white paper on U.S. and Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, which collated and weighted available country-level polling data alongside economic indicators. This paper updates those findings and adds data on student mobility and perceived soft power to provide a more rigorous assessment of elite and public opinion regarding the United States and China. 

As with the CSIS Southeast Asia Program’s previous white paper on U.S. and Chinese influence, available polling continues to indicate that the United States enjoys more overall popularity than China across most of the region. This overall preference for the United States among regional publics remains a significant advantage for Washington as it endeavors to coax governments into aligning with it on a range of issues, or at least keep regional states from aligning with China on issues that would damage U.S. interests. However, the U.S. advantage has shrunk over the last year as factors such as the war in Gaza negatively affect perceptions of the United States across parts of Southeast Asia, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

This report is made possible through the support of the Japan External Trade Organization.