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CSIS scholars explain and interpret developments in the intelligence community and provide recommendations for how it can work more securely and efficiently to protect the U.S. homeland.

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Photo: Damian Sobczyk/Adobe Stock

Photo: Damian Sobczyk/Adobe Stock

Fireside Chat with Andrew Shearer

December 4, 2023 • 11:00 – 11:45 am EST
Hosted by Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
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Emily Harding

Emily Harding

Vice President, Defense and Security Department; Director, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program

Nikita Shah

Senior Fellow, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
Kate Koren

Kate Koren

Deputy Director, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business

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Iran’s Next Move: How to Counter Tehran’s Multidomain Punishment Campaign

Iran is executing a multidomain punishment campaign across energy, cyber, and maritime systems to coerce the United States and its partners. The challenge is not stopping attacks, but denying Tehran the economic disruption and strategic leverage they are designed to create.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — March 23, 2026

How to Lose a Navy in 10 Days

The naval strikes against Iran reveal how quickly modern fleets can be crippled. Today’s maritime campaigns aim not just to sink ships, but to blind sensors, disrupt command networks, and destroy ports—often within the opening days of war.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — March 12, 2026

How Would Iran Respond to a U.S. Attack?

If the United States strikes Iran, how will Tehran respond? History suggests a calibrated mix of cyberattacks, drones, maritime pressure, and limited missile strikes designed to signal resolve while avoiding a wider regional war.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen — February 26, 2026

Why the Army Needs Deception Groups

To outsmart modern threats, the U.S. Army must bring back “ghost armies”—dedicated deception units that manipulate what the enemy sees and believes, creating the space and confusion needed to maneuver and win on today’s transparent battlefield.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — January 29, 2026

Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economic power with slow growth, weak productivity, and declining manufacturing.

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — January 27, 2026

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026