Are Russia and Ukraine Headed to 2 Million Casualties?

January 30, 2026 • 10:00 – 10:30 am EST

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Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economic power with slow growth, weak productivity, and declining manufacturing.

In this video, CSIS experts Dr. Seth Jones and Riley McCabe breakdown the data and argue that Russia has several vulnerabilities the U.S. could better exploit.

This event is made possible through the general support of CSIS.

Tags

Russia, Russia and Eurasia, Ukraine, Ukraine War, Geopolitics and International Security, Defense and Security, Defense Strategy and Capabilities, Intelligence, Transnational Threats, Technology, Military Technology, and Terrorism and Irregular Warfare

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Contact Information

Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Riley McCabe

Riley McCabe

Associate Fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

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Featured Analysis

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economic power with slow growth, weak productivity, and declining manufacturing.

Listen to Audio Brief

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — January 27, 2026