This episode of All About the Base, a video series analyzing critical industrial base topics, assesses how quickly the United States can rebuild and recast the munitions industrial base after the war in Iran has depleted the nation’s stockpiles. By closely examining the president’s fiscal year 2027 budget request, subsequent initiatives, quarterly company reporting, and recent contract announcements, Dr. Jerry McGinn provides a clearer picture of the planned future as well as the obstacles that need to be overcome to achieve those objectives. The data presented in this episode illustrates that meaningful progress has been made. The Pentagon is both increasing the size and changing the composition of the U.S. munitions arsenal, embracing magazine breadth as well as magazine depth through equipping the joint force with a high-low mix of exquisite and affordable missiles and interceptors. Low-cost weapons like the Air Force’s Family of Affordable Mass Missiles program and unmanned autonomous systems through the Drone Dominance Program will also arrive faster and in larger numbers than legacy munitions. The emergence of multiyear “framework agreements” between the Department of Defense and contractors has sent strong demand signals, which prime contractors have answered by increasing capital expenditures (CapEx). While framework agreements are not binding contracts, the DOD has followed through by signing several significant multi-year awards with industry partners in recent months.
The broad trajectory these figures outline is directionally on point, but continued headway requires adequate appropriations from Congress, continued CapEx and other investment from industry, timely and flexible contracts between DOD and companies, and execution on all fronts. Only through consistent and concerted effort by Congress, the Pentagon, and industry will the United States have the underlying munitions production capacity to build and sustain inventories and prevail in modern wars of precision and attrition.
The All About the Base series is made possible by general funding to CSIS.
