Korea Chair

The U.S.-Korea alliance has faced headwinds in recent years generated by the shifting geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry and transactional alliance issues, all while being unable to agree on common approaches to major security challenges concerning North Korea and China. This report—based on the work of a bipartisan commission of experts, scholars, and former U.S. officials organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—offers concrete proposals for a journey of revitalizing the alliance in the areas of extended deterrence, global contributions, regional relations, denuclearization and peacebuilding on the peninsula, and trade and global governance.

Since 2009, the CSIS Korea Chair has been the premier independent platform in Washington for the advancement of major policy issues of common importance to the people of the Republic of Korea and the United States. Korea occupies a central place in U.S. strategy in Asia and plays a critical role in shaping peace and stability in the world's most prosperous and growing region.

Through nonpartisan, expert analysis of ongoing policy opportunities and security challenges facing the region, the CSIS Korea Chair promotes a greater understanding of relations between the United States, Korea, and Asia.

The CSIS Korea Chair conducts independent policy research on multiple issue-areas ranging from security to business to cybersecurity to global health. The Chair convenes public and private sector stakeholders for in-depth discussions and policy research.

CSIS appointed Dr. Victor Cha, former White House official and Georgetown University professor as the inaugural chair holder in 2009.

Covid-19 Outbreak in North Korea

In this episode, Andrew Schwartz and Victor Cha are joined by J. Stephen Morrison to discuss the Covid-19 outbreak in North Korea - which CSIS predicted back in March, the impact of the pandemic on the unvaccinated country, and the road ahead amidst ongoing health and food crises worsened by an extreme lockdown.

The First Biden and Yoon Summit

The first summit meeting to be held between Biden and Yoon on May 21 will demonstrate the strength and solidarity of the U.S.-ROK alliance, their alignment on North Korea policy, and shared interest to cooperate on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

Punggye-ri Update: Ongoing Activity

A high off-nadir (HON) Airbus Neo image of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility collected on May 17, 2022, provides a unique view of the facility and its portals. The image collected at 41.7° off-nadir also shows ongoing activity outside the new portal to Tunnel No. 3 (South Portal) and in the main administration and support area.

North Korea’s Missile Message

In a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. Katrin Fraser Katz argue that the United States must confront North Korea’s ballistic missile program since a recent war in Ukraine has provided Kim Jung Un with the opportunity to test a slew of ballistic missiles, which Kim hopes to develop weapons capable of overwhelming the U.S. missile defenses.

Punggye-ri Update: Construction and Volleyball

Analysis of satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility since late 2021 shows that North Korea has undertaken a project to reactivate Tunnel No. 3 (South Portal). A recent image collected on April 25, 2022, provides one of the most detailed and current views of this continuing activity.

The Burgeoning North Korea Missile Threat

In a new report, CSIS Victor Cha and Katrin Frazer Katz discussed North Korea's recent provocations and what they mean for its overall capabilities, what to expect next from North Korea, and steps Washington could take to strengthen its position vis a vis Pyongyang.

Why S.Korea Should Support Ukraine

In this Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha discussed the Moon administration's initial response to Ukraine and how South Korea should take action to support Ukraine's fight for freedom against Russia.

Opinion: Dangerous covid variants could emerge from North Korea if the world doesn’t act

In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha, Katrin Frazer Katz and J. Stephen Morrison analyze the impact of Covid-19 in North Korea, which could be high-risk for a runaway outbreak of the virus that might breed new, dangerous variants.

South Korea President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s delegation visits CSIS

Yoon Seok-youl: What to Expect from South Korea’s Next President

In a CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha and Dana Kim explained what to expect from the next South Korean president, Yoon Seok-youl in terms of domestic and foreign policies.

North Korea’s Covid-19 Lockdown: Current Status and Road Ahead

In a new report, CSIS Victor Cha, Katrin Fraser Katz and J. Stephen Morrison looked at the impact of Covid-19 on North Korea, including current situation, effects of the border lockdown, broader impact on society and markets, as well as path going forward, possibility of easing restrictions, and feasibility of humanitarian aid.

The Biden Boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

In this new CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha explains the significance of Biden administration boycott of the upcoming 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, and what that means for the Games and U.S.-China relations.

Don't Push Your Ally into a Corner

In this Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha discuss the Moon administration’s push for an end of war declaration for the Korean War, and what that means for the Biden administration and the U.S.-ROK alliance.

Do Presidential Candidates Care About Economic Security?

In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha argues that a national discussion on economic security for South Korea is long overdue.

Are U.S.-China tensions thawing?

In this JoongAng Ilbo column, Dr. Michael Green argues that U.S-China tensions are not thawing, despite the virtual summit between the two leaders.

ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2021: The Road Ahead after the Biden-Moon Summit

On November 15, 2021, CSIS and the Korea Foundation co-hosted our 6th annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum, our premier international forum that brings together officials, policymakers and experts to discuss issues important to the U.S.-ROK alliance.

This year, experts, scholars and officials joined us for a timely discussion on issues critical to U.S.-Korea relations, including what U.S.-China competition means for the alliance, whether there is a way forward for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula, and the future of trilateralism and the alliance in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Capital Cable

With a new episode every two weeks, The Capital Cable provides cutting edge expert analysis of events on the Korean peninsula and how it impacts the U.S. and Asia. Hosted by former U.S. ambassador to Korea for President Barack Obama Mark Lippert and with regular participants Victor Cha and Sue Terry, The Capital Cable features special guests every episode from the US and Korean governments, experts, and opinion leaders.

Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Dr. Joan Cho Join CSIS as Adjunct Fellows for the Korea Chair

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is pleased to announce that Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo of King’s College London and Dr. Joan Cho of Wesleyan University have been appointed as adjunct fellows for the Korea Chair. During their time with CSIS, they will be working on writing three books as part of the Korea Chair’s 2021 Laboratory Program for Korean Studies grant.

Americans Need to Watch S.Korea's Presidential Election

In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha argues that the 2022 South Korean presidential election is arguably the first South Korean election in recent memory where there are substantive foreign policy differences between the two camps that will have real ramifications for U.S. policy.

The Last Chance to Stop North Korea?

In a new Foreign Affairs op-ed, Dr. Victor Cha argues that U.S. humanitarian assistance to North Korea could help revive nuclear diplomacy with Kim Jong-un, and make it less likely that he will carry out major weapons provocations.

Opinion: There’s a simple option for defusing the coming crisis with North Korea

In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha argues that the U.S. and its allies could consider negotiating some form of humanitarian assistance for North Korea to address its declining domestic situation and to defuse the coming crisis with them.

Should S.Korea Be Afraid of Afghanistan-Style U.S. Withdrawal?

In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha addresses the question of whether South Korea should be afraid of an Afghanistan-style U.S. withdrawal.

North Korea’s Nuclear Family

In this Foreign Affairs article, Dr. Sue Mi Terry explores how the Kim family got North Korea the nuclear bomb and why they will not give it up.

Sharp Focus Series

A new series using high-off nadir (HON) images collected by Maxar Technologies to provide a unique view of the Sinpo South Shipyard, Sinpo area, and Mayang-do navy facilities.

A Unique View of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard

The Biden-Moon summit

South Korean president Moon Jae-in is visiting Washington this week for a summit with U.S. president Joe Biden. Their meeting on May 21 will be the first meeting between the two leaders. CSIS Korea Chair will be following the summit with a series of analyses and updates.

Recently acquired thermal infrared imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center provide strong indications that during March and April 2021 activity involving the heating of buildings and operations of facility support systems had resumed at several locations.

The U.S.-Korea alliance has faced headwinds in recent years generated by the shifting geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry and transactional alliance issues, all while being unable to agree on common approaches to major security challenges concerning North Korea and China. This report—based on the work of a bipartisan commission of experts, scholars, and former U.S. officials organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—offers concrete proposals for a journey of revitalizing the alliance in the areas of extended deterrence, global contributions, regional relations, denuclearization and peacebuilding on the peninsula, and trade and global governance.

A satellite image of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility acquired on March 30, 2021 shows continued activity at the radiochemistry laboratory (the facility used to reprocess spent fuel rods) and its associated thermal power plant that may indicate preparations for, or the start of, a new reprocessing campaign. This follows activity previously observed at the thermal power plant during the past four weeks.

In a new CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha argues “It’s business as usual” as North Korea appears to be resuming its cycle of provocations, using weapons demonstrations to build leverage and as a pressure tactic to force unilateral concessions from the United States for a return to the negotiating table.

In a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Eric Brewer and Dr. Sue Mi Terry of CSIS argue for a realistic bargain with North Korea for the U.S. and that while denuclearization might be out of reach for now, it is still possible to reduce the North Korean nuclear threat.

In a new Korea Chair Platform, Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo, the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance presents the case for South Korea to join an expanded Quad+, and how joining it would strengthen the role of South Korea in regional and global affairs, potentially helping provide extra support for Seoul to achieve its foreign policy goals.

In an op-ed for NBC News THINK, Dr. Victor Cha discuss how Covid-19 has isolated North Korea even more than any sanctions regime, and how the regime’s actions has enhanced conditions that could accelerate its reaching a breaking point while also cutting off its usual sources of aid.

In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha argues that North Korea will likely be one of the biggest challenge for President Biden, not just because of its missile and nuclear program, but also due to a potentially catastrophic mix of covid-19, nuclear weapons and a collapsing North Korean economy.

In a new CSIS commentary, Amb. Robert King explains how the number of North Korean defectors resettling in South Korea might have dropped to the lowest in 20 years in 2020.

In a new op-ed for The Chosun Ilbo, Dr. Victor Cha wrote about recent legislation passed by South Korea’s National Assembly regarding North Korean human rights. He sees the balloon launch ban as part of a broader effort by the government to rollback North Korean human rights activities, and believes the government’s attempt to silence South Korean civilian support for a better life for their brethren in the North is a self-defeating policy.

In a commentary for War On the Rocks, Dr. Victor Cha outlined six options for president-elect Joe Biden on denuclearizing North Korea once he comes into office in January 2021.

To discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and its impact on the trajectory of U.S.–ROK relations, scholars, experts, and officials convened on December 14 for the tenth annual JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum. Panels assessed the implications of the new administration’s policies on core issues of the U.S.–ROK alliance, including inter-Korean relations, diplomacy, chartering the path forward on North Korea, and navigating the new strategic landscape with China.

In a new CSIS Commentary, Amb. Robert King, the special envoy for North Korea human rights issues 2009-2017, offers advice on a North Korean human rights agenda for the new Biden administration.

In a new Foreign Affairs op-ed, Dr. Victor Cha discusses what a North Korea strategy for an incoming Biden administration could look like.

In an op-ed for The Interpreter at The Lowy Institute, Dr. Victor Cha wrote about the different responses by South Korea and Australia to a rising China, and how in a new era of U.S.-China strategic competition, there is emerging a set of binary-choice policy issues where the “hedge space” for US allies has diminished considerably.

On November 9-10, CSIS and the Korea National Diplomatic Academy held an annual virtual workshop of the ROK-U.S. Bilateral Alliance Dialogue. The off-the-record, track 1.5 workshop featured leading experts and government officials from the U.S. and the Republic of Korea for special discussions on the topics of U.S.-China competition and the North Korea question going forward under a new Biden administration.

In a new piece published on Beyond Parallel, Markus V. Garlauskas offers a commentary on the status and risks of North Korea’s strategic weapons systems, including a North Korean multiple nuclear-capable reentry vehicle (RV) capability.

In this Korea Chair Platform, Ambassador Robert King explores the special attention given by the United Nations to the issue of abuse of detained women by the North Korean government. He explains how the issue will be brought up in the upcoming session of the UN General Assembly devoted to North Korean human rights issues. He also explains how this is part of an ongoing international effort to document North Korean human rights abuses, citing the work of the UN Commission of Inquiry report, the UN Human Rights Council and the OHCHR office in Seoul.

In this new Korea Public Square, two leading Japan experts, Dr. Michael Green of CSIS, and Dr. Cheol Hee Park of Seoul National University assessed South Korea-Japan relations as Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga starts his first term in office.

How have South Korea and North Korea responded to the COVID-19 pandemic? CSIS Sue Mi Terry takes a deep dive at their vastly approach to the novel coronavirus, and what that have meant for their economies.

Beyond Parallel conducted a new study looking at whether there are patterns to North Korean behavior around U.S. elections. Is there truth to the narrative often found in the media and expert analysis that the North uses provocations to capture the attention of the United States? If so, do the North Koreans have something in the works for the U.S. presidential election on November 3, 2020?

The Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant represents a critical component of North Korea’s nuclear research and weapons development programs. Through analysis of 100+ medium- and high-resolution declassified and commercial satellite images, this report aims to provide a new and unique look into the facility. It is also the second publication in a series analyzing North Korea’s uranium concentrate plants as well as one of the most comprehensive collections of unclassified information and satellite imagery presently available of the Pyongsan facility.

A satellite image of the Sinpo South Shipyard acquired on September 9, 2020 — as the remains of typhoon Haishen struck the Korean Peninsula — continues to show activity within, and adjacent to, the secure boat basin. This activity remains suggestive, but not conclusive, of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the submersible test stand barge based here.

Satellite imagery shows both activity and growth at the Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate plant —indicating North Korea's capacity to grow their nuclear weapons program. This is also the sole known producer of yellowcake that fuels North Korea’s nuclear program. CSIS's Victor Cha and imagery analyst Joe Bermudez explain in newest CSIS “High Resolution” video.

In this op-ed on NBC Think, Dr. Victor Cha explains why he thinks John Bolton’s memoir of his time in the White House presages a path to a potential “October surprise” deal with the rogue nation to burnish President Donald Trump's self-professed deal-making skills ahead of the November elections.

In this Korea Chair Platform, Amb. Robert King explains how turmoil at U.S. Agency for Global Media undermines the critical role that outside information plays for North Korea, especially the broadcasts in Korean from Voice of America and Radio Free Asia.

In an analysis piece on Foreign Affairs, Dr. Sue Mi Terry discusses how U.S. president Donald Trump has allowed the U.S.-ROK alliance, a cornerstone of U.S. defense strategy in Asia to wither.

Two years after the landmark Singapore summit, CSIS experts Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. Sue Mi Terry assess the accomplishments that have been made, prospects for denuclearization on the Korean peninsula, and where U.S.-North Korea relations might be headed.

On The Washington Post, Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) and Dr. Victor Cha argues that President Trump should reach a cost-sharing deal with South Korea and work together with our allies on a strategy to face the security challenges posed by North Korea.

In Foreign Affairs, CSIS Korea Chair Katrin Katz and Victor Cha look at the possibility of Kim Jong Un’s premature death, and argue that it is time to plan for North Korea’s inevitable succession crisis and explain the urgent need for the United States to adopt a regional security strategy for North Korea.

In a joint baseline analysis with Jane’s Intelligence Review, the Center for Strategic and International Studies surveys a previously undisclosed facility near Pyongyang International Airport in North Korea that is likely related to its expanding ballistic missile development program.

In this episode, Victor Cha and Joseph Bermudez discuss the reappearance of Kim Jong Un and the breaking news surrounding satellite images CSIS released this week of a previously undisclosed North Korean missile facility.

To document the trajectory of South Korea’s national response efforts against the spread of COVID-19, the CSIS Korea Chair created a timeline of events outlining policies and other measures implemented to date.

South Korea has largely contained its outbreak of Covid-19 while many other countries struggle to flatten the curve. CSIS's Victor Cha explains the keys to South Korea's success, and explores what lessons the rest of the world can learn. This is what's happening with South Korea's pandemic response.

In this Foreign Affairs piece, Dr. Victor Cha discusses South Korea’s response to COVID-19, and how their actions offers a lesson in best practices for the United States and other countries in responding to this devastating health crisis.

In a new report with the George W. Bush Presidential Center, CSIS Victor Cha explains that a deal with North Korea is not possible without an improvement in the human condition. In the past, the United States privileged nuclear negotiations above all else. It became a policy truism to accept that the delicate negotiations would be made too indelicate by raising human rights with Pyongyang. Many negotiators feared that human rights discussions will distract from the main issue of denuclearization or even offend the regime and scuttle the talks. He offers ways in which we can regain lost ground in the North Korean human rights movement.

For Amb. King’s testimony, please read full testimony here.

For Dr. Terry’s testimony, please read full testimony here.

Dr. Sue Mi Terry also filmed a short CSIS "Testify" video, where she explained in 2 minutes the major points and arguments of her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum 2019

The Importance of U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Defense Cooperation 

CSIS on the Japan-Korea Crisis

U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Seoul Program

High Resolution: North Korea's ICBM Threat

A Small Deal Within a Big Deal

As the Kim-Trump meeting at the DMZ last week suggests a reset in the denuclearization diplomacy after the failed summit in Hanoi, the United States must fashion a new negotiation strategy.  Here, Victor Cha of CSIS and Congressman Ami Bera (D-CA) offer some ideas for a strategy going forward (originally published in Chosun Ilbo, 2 June 2019).
 

Trump, North Korea, and the Rush for Peace

U.S. Policy Toward North Korea After the Second Summit

Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea Chair for CSIS, testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee On East Asia, The Pacific, And International Cybersecurity Policy on “U.S. Policy Toward North Korea After the Second Summit” on March 26, 2019.

North Korea’s No. 17 Explosives Factory: No Significant Activity 

U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Los Angeles Program 

In this article, Dr. Katz argues that conflicts between South Korea and Japan plays into the hands of North Korea and China, and while U.S.’ mediation this time around may not reap immediate success, the costs of complacency are certain.
 

Sohae Launch Facility Update: Quiet Since Early March

Undeclared North Korea: The Sangnam-ni Missile Operating Base 

North Korea Reportedly Renews Commitment to Dismantle the Sohae Launch Facility

In the run-up to a second Trump-Kim summit, South Korean diplomatic sources reported on Monday (January 28th) “Seoul and Washington last week confirmed that Pyongyang will scrap its Tongchang-ri [Sohae] missile engine test site and launch pad in the presence of international experts.” As of January 20, 2019, commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launch Facility shows that no new dismantling activity has occurred at the vertical engine test stand or rail-mounted processing building since August 2018. CSIS Victor Cha and Joe Bermudez explored in this snapshot what the latest satellite imagery tells us about the potential dismantlement at Sohae.

Undeclared North Korea: The Sino-ri Missile Operating Base and Strategic Force Facilities

Though the subject of speculation by open-source researchers for years, new research undertaken by CSIS Beyond Parallel has located 13 of an estimated 20 North Korean missile operating bases that are undeclared by the government. In the 2nd report of our series on these bases, Korea Chair’s Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Lisa Collins explored the Sino-ri Missile Operating Base, which is located 212 kilometers north of the DMZ and houses a regiment-sized unit equipped with Nodong-1 medium-range ballistic missiles in depth.

Victor Cha assess diplomatic prospects for 2nd Trump-Kim summit in 2019

Dr. Victor Cha appeared on PBS Newshour on January 1, 2019 with Amna Nawaz and Jenny Town to analyze Kim Jong-un’s New Year address. The segment was viewed by U.S. president Donald Trump, who tweeted after the show.

Featured Projects

Human Rights in North Korea

Beyond Parallel