Korea Chair
The U.S.-Korea alliance has faced headwinds in recent years generated by the shifting geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry and transactional alliance issues, all while being unable to agree on common approaches to major security challenges concerning North Korea and China. This report—based on the work of a bipartisan commission of experts, scholars, and former U.S. officials organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—offers concrete proposals for a journey of revitalizing the alliance in the areas of extended deterrence, global contributions, regional relations, denuclearization and peacebuilding on the peninsula, and trade and global governance.
Since 2009, the CSIS Korea Chair has been the premier independent platform in Washington for the advancement of major policy issues of common importance to the people of the Republic of Korea and the United States. Korea occupies a central place in U.S. strategy in Asia and plays a critical role in shaping peace and stability in the world's most prosperous and growing region.
Through nonpartisan, expert analysis of ongoing policy opportunities and security challenges facing the region, the CSIS Korea Chair promotes a greater understanding of relations between the United States, Korea, and Asia.
The CSIS Korea Chair conducts independent policy research on multiple issue-areas ranging from security to business to cybersecurity to global health. The Chair convenes public and private sector stakeholders for in-depth discussions and policy research.
CSIS appointed Dr. Victor Cha, former White House official and Georgetown University professor as the inaugural chair holder in 2009.
Inflation Reduction Act Comes into Focus at UNGA
In a CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Ellen Kim explained the issues and concerns surrounding the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and its impact for South Korea and the alliance during South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s first speech and visit to the United States and UN General Assembly on September 20, 2022.
Ongoing Construction Activity at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station
Significant construction continues to take place within the Sohae Satellite Launching Station as part of the modernization and development project announced by Kim Jong-un on March 11, 2022.
Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Vessel Movements and New Construction
Six high-resolution satellite images collected between August 11 and September 12, 2022, show recent vessel activity within the secure boat basin and new construction in the area of the maintenance hall at the Sinpo South Shipyard.
North Korea States It Will Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons
In a CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Ellen Kim explained that North Korea passed a new law enshrining its nuclear power status, expanded the conditions for launching a preemptive nuclear strike, and declared its intention not to denuclearize on the 74th anniversary of its founding.
Unannounced Engine Test and Continued Construction at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station
Since our last report, significant construction activity has taken place within the Sohae Satellite Launching Station as part of the modernization and development project announced by Kim Jong-un on March 11, 2022.
Yoon’s National Liberation Day Speech
In a CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Ellen Kim explained President Yoon Suk Yeol’s National Liberation Day speech and how President Yoon framed Japan differently from traditional narratives and stressed the future-oriented relationship between South Korea and Japan.
Punggye-ri Update: Flood Mitigation
This report is part of Beyond Parallel’s ongoing coverage of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD), ballistic missiles, and economic developments. It presents an update of the currently observable activities at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility based on seven satellite images acquired between June 24 and August 24, 2022, providing an opportunity to update the status of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility and efforts to address challenges with recent heavy rains.
Conversion of Yonpo Airbase to the Yonpo Vegetable Greenhouse Farm
The Yonpo (Ryonpho) Vegetable Greenhouse Farm is a major new agricultural project being undertaken by North Korea, which began in early 2022. When completed, it will convert the former grounds of the Korean People’s Air and Air Defense Force (KPAF) airbase at Yonpo (연포비행장, 39.792279, 127.535775) located in Hamgyong-namdo (South Hamgyon Province, 함경남도) and approximately 22 kilometers southwest of Hamhung to an agriculture complex which including 825 greenhouses, support facilities, and housing, education, and cultural buildings for its workers.
NK Leadership and The Sister
In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha and Andrew Schwartz are joined by Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee from Tufts University to discuss the nature of North Korean leadership throughout three generations, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un, as well as the rise of Kim Yo-jong, the subject of Dr. Lee's forthcoming book, The Sister.
State, Society and Markets in North Korea
In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha is joined by Dr. Andrew Yeo, senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asian Policy Studies, and professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., for a conversation on his latest book, "State, Society and Markets in North Korea," an overview of North Korea's market history, state-market relationships, COVID-19 impacts on markets, and reflections on U.S. policy perspective.
New Construction at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station
An Airbus Neo satellite image collected on July 3, 2022, shows that during the three months since our previous report, a number of small but significant developments have been observed at the launch station, indicating that the modernization and development project has now entered its early construction stage.
Seoul Forum 2022
On July 1, 2022, CSIS, the Seoul Forum for International Affairs (SFIA), and The Korea Society co-hosted the “Seoul Forum 2022” to bring together scholars, experts, and officials to discuss the direction of South Korea’s foreign policy and the future of economic security. This year’s conference featured a keynote address by Gen. (Ret.) James N. Mattis and a luncheon address by the South Korean Trade Minister, Ahn Dukgeun. For a transcript of the conference, please visit the Seoul Forum website.
Continued Expansion and Upgrade Work at Sunchon Airbase
Recently acquired satellite imagery shows North Korea is making slow but steady progress with its renovation and expansion project at the Sunchon Airbase. The base is home to North Korean Air and Air Defense Force (KPAF) Unit #1017, consisting of an air regiment equipped with MiG-29B/SE/UB fighters (55th Air Regiment) and an air regiment equipped with Su-25K/UBK ground attack aircraft. Despite the age of these aircraft, they represent the KPAF’s best air defense and ground attack capabilities. When completed, the renovation and expansion project at the Sunchon Airbase will provide a safer operating environment, additional parking space for aircraft, greater run-out for landing aircraft, accommodation for more heavily loaded or larger aircraft, and the potential for generating greater sortie rates.
Japan and South Korea Can No Longer Let History Thwart Cooperation
In a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Victor Cha and Mr. Christopher Johnstone argue how closer collaboration between the US, Korea, and Japan would advance the foreign policy goals of all three countries and outline a plan of action.
U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Seoul Program 2022
The U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars (2020-2021) visited Seoul from July 3 to 5, 2022 for meetings with South Korean government officials, academics, journalists, experts, as well as the U.S. Embassy Seoul, Korea Foundation and alumni of the NextGen program.
Yongbyon Update: New Activity at Building 500 and Rising Waters
As part of Beyond Parallel’s ongoing detailed coverage of North Korea’s WMD and ballistic missile developments, this report presents an update of the currently observable activities at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center as of July 3, 2022. While portions of the current image are obscured by clouds and deep shadows, peeking through those clouds and shadows provides unique detailed views of some of the recent activity there.
North Korea's Missile Threat - The Truth of the Matter Crossover Episode
In a crossover episode with CSIS's The Truth of the Matter, Dr. Victor Cha and Andrew Schwartz talk about what is expected to be North Korea's seventh nuclear test and its repercussions - from our recent Beyond Parallel report.
Punggye-ri Update: Status Quo
As part of Beyond Parallel’s ongoing detailed coverage of North Korea’s WMD and ballistic missile developments, this report presents an update of the currently observable activities at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility as of June 24, 2022. The image shows no significant developments or changes to the areas outside of the portals for Tunnel No. 3 (also known as the South Portal), from which most informed sources predict the seventh nuclear test will take place, and Tunnel No. 4 (West Portal), where road construction was previously observed.
New Activity at Punggye-ri Tunnel No. 4
An Airbus Pleiades Neo image of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility collected on June 14, 2022, provides an opportunity to update observable activity at the north section of the facility and its portals. The image shows minor new activity at Tunnel No. 3 (also known as the South Portal), indicating that the refurbishment and construction work during the past four months is essentially complete, and the tunnel is now ready for the oft-speculated seventh nuclear test. Significantly, new construction activity is observed at Tunnel No. 4 (West Portal), indicating an expanding effort to reenable the facility..
Foreign Minister Park Jin at CSIS Roundtable
On June 14, 2022, President John Hamre and Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair Victor Cha hosted South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin at CSIS during his official visit to the United States. The meeting was attended by an esteemed group of former cabinet secretaries and former senior U.S. government officials, as well as renowned foreign policy experts in Washington, D.C. They discussed a wide range of issues of importance to the United States and South Korea, including the Yoon Suk Yeol government's new policy for South Korea to be a Global Pivotal State (GPS).
Korea-US-China Relations
In this episode, Andrew Schwartz and Victor Cha are joined by Ellen Kim, the deputy director of the Korea Chair at CSIS, and Jonathan Cheng, China bureau chief of The Wall Street Journal, for a discussion on the relationship between the United States, China, and Korea, including issues related to economics, foreign policy, and the current situation in Taiwan and North Korea.
Keynote Address by Daniel J. Kritenbrink at ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2022
This keynote address by Daniel J. Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, is from the 7th annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum on June 6, 2022, CSIS Korea Chair's premier international forum bringing together policymakers, experts, and officials to discuss US-ROK alliance issues.
Keynote Address by Wang Yunjong at ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2022
This keynote address by Wang Yunjong, Secretary to the President for Economic Security, is from the 7th annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum on June 6, 2022, CSIS Korea Chair's premier international forum bringing together policymakers, experts, and officials to discuss US-ROK alliance issues.
ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2022
On June 6, 2022. CSIS and the Korea Foundation co-hosted our 7th annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum, our premier international forum that brings together officials, policymakers and experts to discuss issues important to the U.S.-ROK alliance.
This year, experts, scholars, and officials joined us for a timely discussion on issues critical to U.S.-Korea relations, including the Biden-Yoon summit, Korea’s pivot to regional leadership, normalization of Korea-Japan relations, economic security and South Korea’s trade agenda.
Post-SLBM Test Activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard
Satellite images of the Sinpo South Shipyard collected on May 15 and 24 provide the first views of the secure boat basin since the SLBM test launch from the area on May 7. The 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA), submersible missile test stand barge, and an infiltration mothership are berthed at the secure boat basin.
Takeaways from the First Biden-Yoon Summit
In this episode, Andrew Schwartz and Victor Cha are joined by Christian Davies, Seoul Correspondent for the Financial Times to discuss the Biden-Yoon summit on May 21 as well as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, North Korea's missile and nuclear threat, and China's response to Biden's active agenda in Asia.
Covid-19 Outbreak in North Korea
In this episode, Andrew Schwartz and Victor Cha are joined by J. Stephen Morrison to discuss the Covid-19 outbreak in North Korea - which CSIS predicted back in March, the impact of the pandemic on the unvaccinated country, and the road ahead amidst ongoing health and food crises worsened by an extreme lockdown.
The First Biden and Yoon Summit
The first summit meeting to be held between Biden and Yoon on May 21 will demonstrate the strength and solidarity of the U.S.-ROK alliance, their alignment on North Korea policy, and shared interest to cooperate on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Punggye-ri Update: Ongoing Activity
A high off-nadir (HON) Airbus Neo image of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility collected on May 17, 2022, provides a unique view of the facility and its portals. The image collected at 41.7° off-nadir also shows ongoing activity outside the new portal to Tunnel No. 3 (South Portal) and in the main administration and support area.
North Korea’s Missile Message
In a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. Katrin Fraser Katz argue that the United States must confront North Korea’s ballistic missile program since a recent war in Ukraine has provided Kim Jung Un with the opportunity to test a slew of ballistic missiles, which Kim hopes to develop weapons capable of overwhelming the U.S. missile defenses.
Punggye-ri Update: Construction and Volleyball
Analysis of satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility since late 2021 shows that North Korea has undertaken a project to reactivate Tunnel No. 3 (South Portal). A recent image collected on April 25, 2022, provides one of the most detailed and current views of this continuing activity.
The Burgeoning North Korea Missile Threat
In a new report, CSIS Victor Cha and Katrin Frazer Katz discussed North Korea's recent provocations and what they mean for its overall capabilities, what to expect next from North Korea, and steps Washington could take to strengthen its position vis a vis Pyongyang.
Why S. Korea Should Support Ukraine
In this Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha discussed the Moon administration's initial response to Ukraine and how South Korea should take action to support Ukraine's fight for freedom against Russia.
Opinion: Dangerous covid variants could emerge from North Korea if the world doesn’t act
In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha, Katrin Frazer Katz and J. Stephen Morrison analyze the impact of Covid-19 in North Korea, which could be high-risk for a runaway outbreak of the virus that might breed new, dangerous variants.
South Korea President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s delegation visits CSIS
The CSIS President and CEO John J. Hamre, Senior Vice President and Korea Chair Victor Cha, and the CSIS Alliance Commission members met with the special envoy to the United States for President-elect Yoon Honorable Park Jin.
Yoon Seok-youl: What to Expect from South Korea’s Next President
In a CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha and Dana Kim explained what to expect from the next South Korean president, Yoon Seok-youl in terms of domestic and foreign policies.
North Korea’s Covid-19 Lockdown: Current Status and Road Ahead
In a new report, CSIS Victor Cha, Katrin Fraser Katz and J. Stephen Morrison looked at the impact of Covid-19 on North Korea, including current situation, effects of the border lockdown, broader impact on society and markets, as well as path going forward, possibility of easing restrictions, and feasibility of humanitarian aid.
The Biden Boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics
In this new CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha explains the significance of Biden administration boycott of the upcoming 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, and what that means for the Games and U.S.-China relations.
Don't Push Your Ally into a Corner
In this Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha discuss the Moon administration’s push for an end of war declaration for the Korean War, and what that means for the Biden administration and the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Do Presidential Candidates Care About Economic Security?
In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha argues that a national discussion on economic security for South Korea is long overdue.
Are U.S.-China tensions thawing?
In this JoongAng Ilbo column, Dr. Michael Green argues that U.S-China tensions are not thawing, despite the virtual summit between the two leaders.
ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2021: The Road Ahead after the Biden-Moon Summit
On November 15, 2021, CSIS and the Korea Foundation co-hosted our 6th annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum, our premier international forum that brings together officials, policymakers and experts to discuss issues important to the U.S.-ROK alliance.
This year, experts, scholars and officials joined us for a timely discussion on issues critical to U.S.-Korea relations, including what U.S.-China competition means for the alliance, whether there is a way forward for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula, and the future of trilateralism and the alliance in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Capital Cable
With a new episode every two weeks, The Capital Cable provides cutting edge expert analysis of events on the Korean peninsula and how it impacts the U.S. and Asia. Hosted by former U.S. ambassador to Korea for President Barack Obama Mark Lippert and with regular participants Victor Cha and Sue Terry, The Capital Cable features special guests every episode from the US and Korean governments, experts, and opinion leaders.
Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Dr. Joan Cho Join CSIS as Adjunct Fellows for the Korea Chair
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is pleased to announce that Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo of King’s College London and Dr. Joan Cho of Wesleyan University have been appointed as adjunct fellows for the Korea Chair. During their time with CSIS, they will be working on writing three books as part of the Korea Chair’s 2021 Laboratory Program for Korean Studies grant.
Americans Need to Watch S.Korea's Presidential Election
In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha argues that the 2022 South Korean presidential election is arguably the first South Korean election in recent memory where there are substantive foreign policy differences between the two camps that will have real ramifications for U.S. policy.
The Last Chance to Stop North Korea?
In a new Foreign Affairs op-ed, Dr. Victor Cha argues that U.S. humanitarian assistance to North Korea could help revive nuclear diplomacy with Kim Jong-un, and make it less likely that he will carry out major weapons provocations.
Opinion: There’s a simple option for defusing the coming crisis with North Korea
In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha argues that the U.S. and its allies could consider negotiating some form of humanitarian assistance for North Korea to address its declining domestic situation and to defuse the coming crisis with them.
Should S. Korea Be Afraid of Afghanistan-Style U.S. Withdrawal?
In this new Chosun Ilbo column, Dr. Victor Cha addresses the question of whether South Korea should be afraid of an Afghanistan-style U.S. withdrawal.
North Korea’s Nuclear Family
In this Foreign Affairs article, Dr. Sue Mi Terry explores how the Kim family got North Korea the nuclear bomb and why they will not give it up.
Sharp Focus Series
A new series using high-off nadir (HON) images collected by Maxar Technologies to provide a unique view of the Sinpo South Shipyard, Sinpo area, and Mayang-do navy facilities.
The Sinpo South Shipyard has been carefully watched by analysts inside and outside the government for its potential deployment of SLBM capabilities and a ballistic missile submarine. This report provides a close-up focus of the test stand, construction halls, and related facilities at Sinpo South Shipyard.
The Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and submarine bases are the largest facilities of their kind in North Korea. As such, they play a crucial role in the operational status, repair, and maintenance of the nation’s submarine force. This report provides a close-up focus of these facilities, including views of the ROMEO class and SANGO class submarines, and Kim Jong-un’s yacht.
The Sinpo Shipyard is the counterpart to the Sinpo South Shipyard and focuses primarily on the production, maintenance, and repair of small fishing vessels. To a lesser degree, it has also been involved in the production, maintenance, and repair of small Korean Peoples’ Navy combatants. Since about 2009, the graving dock at the shipyard – one of the largest in North Korea – has played a crucial role in maintaining the operational status, repair, maintenance, and scrapping of the nation’s submarine force.
The Korean Peninsula Energy Development (KEDO) committed to the construction of two 1,000-megawatt light water reactors (LWR) at Kumho-ri following the October 1994 signing of the Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea. Due to political and practical obstacles, the construction of the site and LWRs were suspended in November 2003.
A Unique View of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard
Using unique off-nadir imagery collection, this report provides a close-up focus of the test launch sites, ports, and related facilities at Sinpo South Shipyard. This is the first of several Sharp Focus reports providing a unique view of the Sinpo South Shipyard, Sinpo area, and Mayang-do navy facilities using a remarkable high off-nadir (HON) image collected by Maxar Technologies during April 2021.
The Biden-Moon summit
South Korean president Moon Jae-in is visiting Washington this week for a summit with U.S. president Joe Biden. Their meeting on May 21 will be the first meeting between the two leaders. CSIS Korea Chair will be following the summit with a series of analyses and updates.
In this Critical Questions, CSIS Victor Cha analyzes the main items on the agenda for the summit, including North Korea, Covid-19 vaccines, and economics and trade.
In this episode, Dr. Victor Cha and Andrew Schwartz are joined by Dr. Sue Mi Terry of CSIS to talk about the Biden-Moon summit, the first summit meeting between the two leaders. They discuss North Korea policy, vaccine diplomacy, sports and the Tokyo Olympics and deliverables for the summit.
CSIS hosted a press briefing to discuss the Biden-Moon summit. CSIS experts Victor Cha, Sue Mi Terry, Mike Green and Jane Nakano previewed the meeting and examined critical issues in the U.S.-South Korea relationship, including North Korea, climate change cooperation, and trade.
A senior U.S. administration official did a background press call on May 19 to discuss what to expect of the Biden-Moon summit this Friday, May 21.
President Biden and President Moon briefly spoke to the press before their bilateral meeting on May 21.
Remarks by President Biden and H.E. Moon Jae-in, President of the Republic of Korea at Press Conference
President Biden and President Moon spoke to the press at a press conference after their bilateral meeting on May 21.
The U.S. and the Republic of Korea released a fact sheet on the U.S-ROK partnership.
U.S.-ROK Leaders’ Joint Statement
The U.S. and the Republic of Korea released a joint statement at the conclusion of the summit meeting between President Biden and President Moon on May 21.
Thermal Imagery Indicates Activity at Yongbyon Nuclear Reprocessing Facilities
Recently acquired thermal infrared imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center provide strong indications that during March and April 2021 activity involving the heating of buildings and operations of facility support systems had resumed at several locations.
Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Submersible Missile Test Stand Barge and General Status
The U.S.-Korea alliance has faced headwinds in recent years generated by the shifting geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry and transactional alliance issues, all while being unable to agree on common approaches to major security challenges concerning North Korea and China. This report—based on the work of a bipartisan commission of experts, scholars, and former U.S. officials organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—offers concrete proposals for a journey of revitalizing the alliance in the areas of extended deterrence, global contributions, regional relations, denuclearization and peacebuilding on the peninsula, and trade and global governance.
Reprocessing Activity at Yongbyon’s Radiochemistry Laboratory?
A satellite image of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility acquired on March 30, 2021 shows continued activity at the radiochemistry laboratory (the facility used to reprocess spent fuel rods) and its associated thermal power plant that may indicate preparations for, or the start of, a new reprocessing campaign. This follows activity previously observed at the thermal power plant during the past four weeks.
‘Business as Usual’: North Korea Restarts Ballistic Missile Tests
In a new CSIS Critical Questions, Dr. Victor Cha argues “It’s business as usual” as North Korea appears to be resuming its cycle of provocations, using weapons demonstrations to build leverage and as a pressure tactic to force unilateral concessions from the United States for a return to the negotiating table.
It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea
In a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Eric Brewer and Dr. Sue Mi Terry of CSIS argue for a realistic bargain with North Korea for the U.S. and that while denuclearization might be out of reach for now, it is still possible to reduce the North Korean nuclear threat.
South Korea would benefit from joining a Quad+
In a new Korea Chair Platform, Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo, the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance presents the case for South Korea to join an expanded Quad+, and how joining it would strengthen the role of South Korea in regional and global affairs, potentially helping provide extra support for Seoul to achieve its foreign policy goals.
Covid helped isolate North Korea in a way sanctions never could. So what happens now?
In an op-ed for NBC News THINK, Dr. Victor Cha discuss how Covid-19 has isolated North Korea even more than any sanctions regime, and how the regime’s actions has enhanced conditions that could accelerate its reaching a breaking point while also cutting off its usual sources of aid.
North Korea could become one of Biden’s biggest challenges — and not just because of its nukes
In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Dr. Victor Cha argues that North Korea will likely be one of the biggest challenge for President Biden, not just because of its missile and nuclear program, but also due to a potentially catastrophic mix of covid-19, nuclear weapons and a collapsing North Korean economy.
Number of North Korean Defectors Drops to Lowest Level in Two Decades
In a new CSIS commentary, Amb. Robert King explains how the number of North Korean defectors resettling in South Korea might have dropped to the lowest in 20 years in 2020.
A Self-Defeating Policy
In a new op-ed for The Chosun Ilbo, Dr. Victor Cha wrote about recent legislation passed by South Korea’s National Assembly regarding North Korean human rights. He sees the balloon launch ban as part of a broader effort by the government to rollback North Korean human rights activities, and believes the government’s attempt to silence South Korean civilian support for a better life for their brethren in the North is a self-defeating policy.
Denuclearizing North Korea: Six Options for Biden
In a commentary for War On the Rocks, Dr. Victor Cha outlined six options for president-elect Joe Biden on denuclearizing North Korea once he comes into office in January 2021.
JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum 2020: Morning in America
To discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and its impact on the trajectory of U.S.–ROK relations, scholars, experts, and officials convened on December 14 for the tenth annual JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum. Panels assessed the implications of the new administration’s policies on core issues of the U.S.–ROK alliance, including inter-Korean relations, diplomacy, chartering the path forward on North Korea, and navigating the new strategic landscape with China.
A North Korean Human Rights Agenda for the Biden Administration
In a new CSIS Commentary, Amb. Robert King, the special envoy for North Korea human rights issues 2009-2017, offers advice on a North Korean human rights agenda for the new Biden administration.
Engaging North Korea Anew
In a new Foreign Affairs op-ed, Dr. Victor Cha discusses what a North Korea strategy for an incoming Biden administration could look like.
Leading by example: Two different responses to China’s rise
In an op-ed for The Interpreter at The Lowy Institute, Dr. Victor Cha wrote about the different responses by South Korea and Australia to a rising China, and how in a new era of U.S.-China strategic competition, there is emerging a set of binary-choice policy issues where the “hedge space” for US allies has diminished considerably.
2020 CSIS-KNDA ROK-U.S. Bilateral Alliance Dialogue
On November 9-10, CSIS and the Korea National Diplomatic Academy held an annual virtual workshop of the ROK-U.S. Bilateral Alliance Dialogue. The off-the-record, track 1.5 workshop featured leading experts and government officials from the U.S. and the Republic of Korea for special discussions on the topics of U.S.-China competition and the North Korea question going forward under a new Biden administration.
We Must Prevent North Korea from Testing Multiple Reentry Vehicles
In a new piece published on Beyond Parallel, Markus V. Garlauskas offers a commentary on the status and risks of North Korea’s strategic weapons systems, including a North Korean multiple nuclear-capable reentry vehicle (RV) capability.
Abuse of Women Detained in North Korea Given Special Attention by United Nations
In this Korea Chair Platform, Ambassador Robert King explores the special attention given by the United Nations to the issue of abuse of detained women by the North Korean government. He explains how the issue will be brought up in the upcoming session of the UN General Assembly devoted to North Korean human rights issues. He also explains how this is part of an ongoing international effort to document North Korean human rights abuses, citing the work of the UN Commission of Inquiry report, the UN Human Rights Council and the OHCHR office in Seoul.
Assessing the Direction of South Korea-Japan Relations in a New Era
In this new Korea Public Square, two leading Japan experts, Dr. Michael Green of CSIS, and Dr. Cheol Hee Park of Seoul National University assessed South Korea-Japan relations as Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga starts his first term in office.
South Korea Minimized the Damage from Covid-19. North Korea Maximized It.
How have South Korea and North Korea responded to the COVID-19 pandemic? CSIS Sue Mi Terry takes a deep dive at their vastly approach to the novel coronavirus, and what that have meant for their economies.
North Korean Provocations Likely Around U.S. Presidential Election
Beyond Parallel conducted a new study looking at whether there are patterns to North Korean behavior around U.S. elections. Is there truth to the narrative often found in the media and expert analysis that the North uses provocations to capture the attention of the United States? If so, do the North Koreans have something in the works for the U.S. presidential election on November 3, 2020?
Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant (Nam-chon Chemical Complex): Infrastructure Development and Status
The Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant represents a critical component of North Korea’s nuclear research and weapons development programs. Through analysis of 100+ medium- and high-resolution declassified and commercial satellite images, this report aims to provide a new and unique look into the facility. It is also the second publication in a series analyzing North Korea’s uranium concentrate plants as well as one of the most comprehensive collections of unclassified information and satellite imagery presently available of the Pyongsan facility.
Sinpo South Shipyard Update: New Vehicles Emerge, Still Suggestive of SLBM Test Preparations
A satellite image of the Sinpo South Shipyard acquired on September 9, 2020 — as the remains of typhoon Haishen struck the Korean Peninsula — continues to show activity within, and adjacent to, the secure boat basin. This activity remains suggestive, but not conclusive, of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the submersible test stand barge based here.
North Korea's Uranium Plant at Pyongsan
Satellite imagery shows both activity and growth at the Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate plant —indicating North Korea's capacity to grow their nuclear weapons program. This is also the sole known producer of yellowcake that fuels North Korea’s nuclear program. CSIS's Victor Cha and imagery analyst Joe Bermudez explain in newest CSIS “High Resolution” video.
Could a Trump Deal with Kim Jong Un be the October Surprise? John Bolton Seems to Think So
In this op-ed on NBC Think, Dr. Victor Cha explains why he thinks John Bolton’s memoir of his time in the White House presages a path to a potential “October surprise” deal with the rogue nation to burnish President Donald Trump's self-professed deal-making skills ahead of the November elections.
Turmoil at U.S. Agency for Global Media Undermines Information Policy for North Korea
In this Korea Chair Platform, Amb. Robert King explains how turmoil at U.S. Agency for Global Media undermines the critical role that outside information plays for North Korea, especially the broadcasts in Korean from Voice of America and Radio Free Asia.
The Unraveling of the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
In an analysis piece on Foreign Affairs, Dr. Sue Mi Terry discusses how U.S. president Donald Trump has allowed the U.S.-ROK alliance, a cornerstone of U.S. defense strategy in Asia to wither.
Two Years since Singapore: Did Kim Outplay Trump?
Two years after the landmark Singapore summit, CSIS experts Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. Sue Mi Terry assess the accomplishments that have been made, prospects for denuclearization on the Korean peninsula, and where U.S.-North Korea relations might be headed.
Burden-Sharing Talks are Distracting Washington and Seoul from the North Korean Threat
On The Washington Post, Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) and Dr. Victor Cha argues that President Trump should reach a cost-sharing deal with South Korea and work together with our allies on a strategy to face the security challenges posed by North Korea.
After Kim Jong Un
In Foreign Affairs, CSIS Korea Chair Katrin Katz and Victor Cha look at the possibility of Kim Jong Un’s premature death, and argue that it is time to plan for North Korea’s inevitable succession crisis and explain the urgent need for the United States to adopt a regional security strategy for North Korea.
Sil-li Ballistic Missile Support Facility
In a joint baseline analysis with Jane’s Intelligence Review, the Center for Strategic and International Studies surveys a previously undisclosed facility near Pyongyang International Airport in North Korea that is likely related to its expanding ballistic missile development program.
Kim Jong Un Alive and so is North Korea's Missile Program
In this episode, Victor Cha and Joseph Bermudez discuss the reappearance of Kim Jong Un and the breaking news surrounding satellite images CSIS released this week of a previously undisclosed North Korean missile facility.
Splendid Isolation: North Korea and COVID-19
CSIS created a unique dataset chronicling actions taken by North Korea in response to the last two major pandemics, Ebola (2014) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (2015). We then compared these findings with NK Pro’s study of North Korea's behavior during COVID-19.
A Timeline of South Korea’s Response to COVID-19
To document the trajectory of South Korea’s national response efforts against the spread of COVID-19, the CSIS Korea Chair created a timeline of events outlining policies and other measures implemented to date.
What's Happening with South Korea's Pandemic Response
South Korea has largely contained its outbreak of Covid-19 while many other countries struggle to flatten the curve. CSIS's Victor Cha explains the keys to South Korea's success, and explores what lessons the rest of the world can learn. This is what's happening with South Korea's pandemic response.
South Korea Offers a Lesson in Best Practices
In this Foreign Affairs piece, Dr. Victor Cha discusses South Korea’s response to COVID-19, and how their actions offers a lesson in best practices for the United States and other countries in responding to this devastating health crisis.
Regaining Lost Ground in the North Korean Human Rights Movement
In a new report with the George W. Bush Presidential Center, CSIS Victor Cha explains that a deal with North Korea is not possible without an improvement in the human condition. In the past, the United States privileged nuclear negotiations above all else. It became a policy truism to accept that the delicate negotiations would be made too indelicate by raising human rights with Pyongyang. Many negotiators feared that human rights discussions will distract from the main issue of denuclearization or even offend the regime and scuttle the talks. He offers ways in which we can regain lost ground in the North Korean human rights movement.
“Fire and Fury 2?”: Q1 2020 Provocations Reminiscent of Q1 2017
In a new Beyond Parallel post, CSIS Victor Cha and Dana Kim finds that recent provocations by North Korea in early 2020 is reminiscent of the provocations in Q1 2017.
North Korea Policy One Year After Hanoi
Ambassador Robert R. King, senior adviser (Non-resident) and Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow, Korea Chair, testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy on "North Korea Policy One Year After Hanoi."
For Amb. King’s testimony, please read full testimony here.
For Dr. Terry’s testimony, please read full testimony here.
Dr. Sue Mi Terry also filmed a short CSIS "Testify" video, where she explained in 2 minutes the major points and arguments of her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Sohae Engine Test Part of Coercive Diplomacy Tactic as End-of-Year Deadline Approaches
What do CSIS Joe Bermudez and Victor Cha think of North Korea’s liquid-fuel rocket engine test at the vertical engine test stand at Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on December 7, 2019? They think it is part of North Korea’s coercive diplomacy tactic as Kim Jong-un’s end-of-year deadline approaches.
Sinpo Update: No Significant Developments
Based on recent satellite imagery of Sinpo South Shipyard reviewed by Joe Bermudez and Victor Cha, there is no evidence that the “newly built submarine” inspected by Kim Jong-un on July 23, 2019 has been launched.
U.S.-South Korea Cost-Sharing Negotiations Impacting Korean Public Support for U.S. Security Umbrella
How do U.S. and ROK citizens view the ongoing SMA negotiations surrounding defense cost-sharing? Predata signals suggest a significant perception gap emerging between the U.S. and South Korea. Victor Cha and Predata analysts discuss the heightened attention and the notable upticks in engagement with anti-U.S. content.
The 66-year alliance between the U.S. and South Korea is in deep trouble
In a Korea Chair Platform, CSIS Trustee Richard Armitage and CSIS Senior Advisor and Korea Chair Victor Cha discusses the troubles the U.S.-ROK alliance face.
Mining North Korea: Magnesite Production at the Taehung Youth Hero Mine
The Taehung Youth Hero Mine, located on the southern hill mass above Puktuilryong (Puktuil Pass), and the Ryongyang Mine are the largest magnesite mines in North Korea and some of the largest in the world. CSIS in conjunction with NGA took a deep dive into this important mine in North Korea.
North Korea’s Strong Hand Against the U.S.
In a Korea Chair Platform, CSIS Korea Chair Senior Fellow Sue Mi Terry discussed the few options the U.S. have with North Korea, and how North Korea now has a strong hand to use against the U.S.
JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum 2019
On Monday, September 30, 2019, we hosted the 9th annual JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS Forum at CSIS, which brought together renowned scholars, experts and officials to talk about peace and denuclearization, seeking solutions to the Korea-Japan conflict, and U.S.-China relations.Our keynote speaker was Ambassador John Bolton, the National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump from 2018 to 2019.
Welcoming Remarks by Amb. Hong Seok-Hyun, Chairman of JoongAng Holdings
Keynote Address by Amb. John R. Bolton, the former National Security Advisor
Closing Keynote Address by The Honorable John C. Rood, the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
North Korea’s Strong Hand Against the U.S.
In this Korea Chair Platform, Dr. Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow at the Korea Chair, argued that Kim Jong-un has been negotiating with the United States from a position of strength, and that he ultimately has no intention of denuclearizing North Korea.
Soft Diplomacy, Hard Stance
In the newest episode of The Impossible State podcast, Andrew talked with resident North Korea expert Victor Cha, and Dr. Kang Choi, acting president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies about North Korea’s recent missile launch, South Korea-Japan relations, and more.
Collateral Damage: What U.S.-China Competition Means for Korea
CSIS Korea Chair Dr. Victor Cha explores the impact of U.S.-China competition for South Korea, and explain why caught between its security patron and its giant neighbor, South Koreans increasingly will be forced to choose between the two, and in ways that are detrimental to the longstanding U.S.-ROK alliance. While South Korea’s preferred position has always been to hedge between the U.S. and China, choosing one or the other now is difficult is difficult because of three dilemmas that South Korea face.
Sinpo Update: Significant Concealment Activity after Pukguksong Launch
The October 2, 2019 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test launch of the Pukguksong-3 has raised concerns over the forthcoming launch of North Korea’s first true ballistic missile submarine (SSB). What does CSIS Joe Bermudez, Victor Cha and Dana make of the significant concealment activity seen in a October 9 satellite image of the submersible test stand barge at Sinpo shipyard?
North Korea Fine Tunes its Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Capabilities
On October 2, 2019, North Korea tested what may have been a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from waters northeast of the Wonsan, Kangwon Province area into the sea between Korea and Japan. CSIS Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Dana Kim look at what this means for North Korea’s capabilities.
Undeclared North Korea: The Kumchon-ni Missile Operating Base
In this new Undeclared North Korea report by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha, CSIS Beyond Parallel looks at the Kumchon-ni missile operating base. This is the first comprehensive public report detailing the development, organization, and threat posed by the Kumchon-ni base, which is tasked with not only strikes against the southern half of Japan, but is also capable of striking all of South Korea, and houses a battalion- or regiment-sized unit equipped with Hwasong-9 (Scud-ER) medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM).
The Importance of U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Defense Cooperation
On August 28, CSIS Korea Chair and Japan Chair co-hosted The Honorable Randall Schriver, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense for an importance discussion on the importance of U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral defense cooperation, moderated by Dr. Victor Cha.
CSIS on the Japan-Korea Crisis
The Japan-Korea crisis is important to regional relations in Asia and for the United States. Read what CSIS experts Dr. Victor Cha, Dr. Katrin Katz, Mr. Matthew Goodman and others has to say about this critical issue.
U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Seoul Program
On July 31 – August 2, we held the Seoul Program of the U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Program in Seoul, South Korea. At the Seoul Program, the NextGen scholars participated in a series of meetings at the Blue House, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Unification, the U.S. Embassy Seoul and the Institute for National Security Strategy to discuss U.S.-ROK relations, U.S.-DPRK relations, inter-Korea relations, and ROK-Japan relations. The scholars also had the opportunity to meet with the NextGen senior advisors in Korea and members of the business and media communities to discuss their work. They also visited the new Chey Institute for Advanced Studies to learn about their initiatives. Lastly, the scholars spoke at about their research to professors and students at public events held at Korea University and Seoul National University.
High Resolution: North Korea's ICBM Threat
The Yusang-ni missile operating base is reported to house ICBMs with first strike capabilities against the United States. CSIS's Victor Cha and Joseph Bermudez explain why Yusang-ni stands out among North Korea's matrix of secret missile operating bases. Please visit Beyond Parallel to view the full video and read the report.A Small Deal Within a Big Deal
As the Kim-Trump meeting at the DMZ last week suggests a reset in the denuclearization diplomacy after the failed summit in Hanoi, the United States must fashion a new negotiation strategy. Here, Victor Cha of CSIS and Congressman Ami Bera (D-CA) offer some ideas for a strategy going forward (originally published in Chosun Ilbo, 2 June 2019).
Trump, North Korea, and the Rush for Peace
In the May/June 2019 edition of The National Interest, Dr. Victor Cha wrote about the South Korean government’s rush for a peace declaration with North Korea, the status of the U.S.-DPRK relations and the likelihood of a denuclearization agreement.
U.S. Policy Toward North Korea After the Second Summit
Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea Chair for CSIS, testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee On East Asia, The Pacific, And International Cybersecurity Policy on “U.S. Policy Toward North Korea After the Second Summit” on March 26, 2019.
You can also watch a quick recap of his testimony in this new CSIS “Testify” video
North Korea’s No. 17 Explosives Factory: No Significant Activity
CSIS Joe Bermudez and Victor Cha looked at satellite imagery acquired on March 21, 2019 and over the past six months and found that the No. 17 Explosives Factory near Hamhung, North Korea is active. The No. 17 factory is important because it is one of the primary, if not the primary, producer of large solid-propellant rocket motors for ballistic missiles such as the Pukguksong-1 and-2.
U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Los Angeles Program
On March 13 – 15, we held the Los Angeles Program of the U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars Program at USC. At the Los Angeles Program, the NextGen scholars participated in a writing workshop for their op-eds, media-training and videotaping for their Korea Questions videos, and professional development sessions on publishing and interviewing.
As part of the U.S.-Korea NextGen Scholars program, our eleven scholars will publish an op-ed as part of the program. These op-eds were workshopped at the Los Angeles Program, with feedback provided by the program chairs and the Senior Advisory Board throughout the program.
In this article, Dr. Katz argues that conflicts between South Korea and Japan plays into the hands of North Korea and China, and while U.S.’ mediation this time around may not reap immediate success, the costs of complacency are certain.
In this article, Dr. Kim argues that if Americans lose faith in alternative routes to success, entry to top universities could become as cut-throat as it is in South Korea.
Sohae Launch Facility Update: Quiet Since Early March
A new CSIS Beyond Parallel snapshot on March 19 by Joe Bermudez and Victor Cha finds no activity of significance at the vertical engine test stand or launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launch Facility.
Undeclared North Korea: The Sangnam-ni Missile Operating Base
In the third of our series “Undeclared North Korea” looking at the approximately 20 undeclared missile bases by North Korea, CSIS Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Lisa Collins looked in depth at the Sangnam-ni missile operating base in Hochon County in South Hamgyong province, North Korea. Sangnam-ni is an operational missile base that houses a battalion- or regiment-sized unit equipped with Hwasong-10 (Musudan) intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM).
North Korea Reportedly Renews Commitment to Dismantle the Sohae Launch Facility
In the run-up to a second Trump-Kim summit, South Korean diplomatic sources reported on Monday (January 28th) “Seoul and Washington last week confirmed that Pyongyang will scrap its Tongchang-ri [Sohae] missile engine test site and launch pad in the presence of international experts.” As of January 20, 2019, commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launch Facility shows that no new dismantling activity has occurred at the vertical engine test stand or rail-mounted processing building since August 2018. CSIS Victor Cha and Joe Bermudez explored in this snapshot what the latest satellite imagery tells us about the potential dismantlement at Sohae.
Undeclared North Korea: The Sino-ri Missile Operating Base and Strategic Force Facilities
Though the subject of speculation by open-source researchers for years, new research undertaken by CSIS Beyond Parallel has located 13 of an estimated 20 North Korean missile operating bases that are undeclared by the government. In the 2nd report of our series on these bases, Korea Chair’s Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Lisa Collins explored the Sino-ri Missile Operating Base, which is located 212 kilometers north of the DMZ and houses a regiment-sized unit equipped with Nodong-1 medium-range ballistic missiles in depth.
Victor Cha assess diplomatic prospects for 2nd Trump-Kim summit in 2019
Dr. Victor Cha appeared on PBS Newshour on January 1, 2019 with Amna Nawaz and Jenny Town to analyze Kim Jong-un’s New Year address. The segment was viewed by U.S. president Donald Trump, who tweeted after the show.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 1, 2019
Making Solid Tracks: North Korea’s Railway Connections with China and Russia
With the December 26 groundbreaking ceremony at the Panmun station on the east side of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, North and South Korea are moving forward with inter-Korean railway cooperation as a key engine for advancing inter-Korean reconciliation and building the infrastructure for eventual unification. Railway re-connection would allow the Korean peninsula to be integrated into a rail network spanning the Eurasian continent through China and Russia. This report is the second in a series of CSIS original reports by Victor Cha, Joseph Bermudez and Marie DuMond on the inter-Korean and Korea-Eurasian railway connections including analysis, satellite imagery, and an overview of technical specifications.
Undeclared North Korea: The Sakkanmol Missile Operating Base
Though the subject of speculation by open-source researchers for years, new research was undertaken by CSIS Beyond Parallel has located 13 of an estimated 20 North Korean missile operating bases that are undeclared by the government. Missile operating bases are not launch facilities. In this new report, Korea Chair’s Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Lisa Collins explored one such missile base in depth, the Sakkanmol Missile Operating Base, one of the closest to the DMZ and Seoul.
The Markets: Private Economy and Capitalism in North Korea?
The growth of markets is the single most significant socioeconomic development to occur in North Korea over the last 20 years. An understanding of this change is critical for the formulation of North Korea policy, but the underlying issues have been relatively understudied in comparison to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and prospects for denuclearization. In 2017 and 2018, Beyond Parallel launched a pioneering and original data collection project on markets in North Korea to study the changes happening in the country. As featured in “North Korea’s ‘Money Masters’ Hold Keys to Kim’s Economic Revival” by Jonathan Cheng in the Wall Street Journal.
Health Security and North Korea: Film Screening and Discussion
On Monday, October 29 from 2:00pm to 4:00pm, the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America's Health Security hosted a screening of its new film, The Gathering Health Storm Inside North Korea, followed by a roundtable discussion with regional experts and providers of humanitarian assistance moderated by film co-director J. Stephen Morrison. Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. Sue Mi Terry both participated in the new film and in the film screening at CSIS.
A View Inside North Korea
Since 2016, CSIS has partnered with an organization that has a successful track record of conducting discrete and careful surveys in North Korea. Beyond Parallel has commissioned this organization to administer micro-survey questionnaires in provinces across North Korea. The questionnaires are carried out as natural in-person conversations between those conducting the interviews and the respondents. The individuals administering the questions are carefully trained to avoid asking leading questions or eliciting specific answers so as to protect both the integrity of the interview project and as well as safety of the people involved in the conversation. Explore the results and related commentaries by visiting the project page.
