The Latest on Southeast Asia: Rubio Joins ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila

Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined more than two dozen counterparts from across the Indo-Pacific and Europe in Manila from July 21 to 23 for the annual ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and related meetings. These provided top diplomats from the 11 ASEAN member-states and their leading dialogue partners the chance to discuss the most pressing issues of the day, including the Iran war’s impact on regional energy security, the latest violence in the South China Sea, and the civil war in Myanmar civil. On the first, ASEAN ministers were united in their emphasis on the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But no concreate efforts were announced, including on fuel-sharing initiatives discussed at the ASEAN Summit in May.

Recent confrontations between China and the Philippines set the tone on the South China Sea, overriding whatever hopes Manila as this year’s ASEAN chair might have still held for advancing a long-stalled code of conduct to manage the disputes. On July 20, just days before the forum, a small China Coast Guard boat entered the lagoon at Second Thomas Shoal and approached provocatively close to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, home to a small Philippine garrison. Philippine troops deployed a small boat of their own to drive the Chinese personnel away and in an ensuing clash, a China Coast Guard officer struck a Philippine sailor on the head with a baton. This prompted condemnation not only from the Philippines but from external parties including Australia and the United States. 

Expectations for progress on the South China Sea were already low before the clash, as diplomatic tensions had been ratcheting up for weeks. Earlier in the month, more than a dozen nations, including the United States, commemorated the 10^th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration with a joint statement urging China to comply with the ruling. This provoked testy denunciations from Beijing. China’s state-owned Global Times, meanwhile, released an AI-generated video depicting Filipino sailors as monkeys, prompting outrage and accusations of racism from the Philippine public and government. And on the very morning of the ARF, Manila accused the China Coast Guard of firing a water cannon at a Philippine government vessel near Scarborough Shoal.

While the ARF brought officials to Manila, much of the energy and outcomes were better captured in bilateral meetings. For instance, Secretary Rubio met with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., of the Philippines and underscored the United States’ ironclad commitment to the two countries’ alliance while also announcing new funding initiatives for the Philippines and Southeast Asia. These include $10 million toward the Philippines Trusted Technology Roadmap, $60 million toward regional infrastructure, and $100 million in FY2026 Foreign Military Financing for Manila. Rubio also met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi to lay the groundwork for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to Washington in September. The tone of the meeting—by all accounts cordial—was closely watched amid recent spats over the South China Sea and President Trump’s accusation that Beijing had sought to influence the 2020 U.S. elections. 

The thorniest intra-ASEAN issue, Myanmar, got plenty of attention but little consensus. Significant cleavages remain within the grouping over how to approach the rebranded military regime in Myanmar. While Thailand and Cambodia have expressed a willingness to engage with the junta-led government, much of the bloc still expressed reservations. ASEAN foreign ministers have agreed to set benchmarks for measuring Myanmar’s progress toward national reconciliation and are considering appointing a long-term special envoy. But more than five years after the coup, a unified approach to Myanmar continues to elude the grouping.

Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

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