Middle East Program

Providing forward-looking analysis of the political, diplomatic, economic, and security forces shaping the Middle East’s emerging order

The Middle East is at a “hinge moment,” a period of transformative change where the old order is disappearing, and a new, region-driven multipolar order is emerging. The Middle East’s changing order heralds a time of greater dynamism and unpredictability. While this transformative moment brings new opportunities for peace and prosperity, it also holds the potential for deepening conflict. For the United States, understanding the dynamics at play in the Middle East, the motivations of the region’s key stakeholders, and the inherent risks and opportunities for the United States will be critical to ensuring U.S. interests and promoting American prosperity. 

In the emerging Middle East order, regional actors hold far greater agency to shape the region’s contours. For the Gulf—the Middle East’s new “center of gravity”—the vision focuses on de-escalating and containing/managing regional conflicts; stabilizing countries emerging from conflict such as Syria; transforming their economies to create jobs, develop vibrant private sectors, and capture advances toward non-carbon energy transition, and creating building blocks for a regional security architecture. If successful, these efforts could create a far more stable and prosperous Middle East, with strengthened intra-regional connections and the region’s fuller integration into the global economy.

The Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look to unpack the complex dynamics of the region’s emerging order through the “Middle East Emerging Order Initiative” founded on four strategic pillars focused on key diplomatic, economic, security, and stabilization trends in the region. Explore the pillars below:

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Media Queries

The Middle East Futures Papers

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

The Middle East at a “Hinge Moment”

The Middle East has entered a hinge moment—the old order dying, a new one yet to emerge. As the region’s own actors, fortified by newfound agency, compete to shape this unsettled interval, many trajectories, from renewed conflict to stabilization, remain possible.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — September 9, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East

The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater influence in a more multipolar region.

Commentary by Vali Nasr — September 14, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

The Levantine Opportunity in a Churning Middle East

The wars of the past three years have eroded the fragile order of the Middle East. Now, for the first time in decades, the Levant has a chance to create a new alignment and build a regional order centered around strong, inclusive states, stability, and open trade.

Commentary by Paul Salem — September 21, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Saudi Arabia faces a new era of uncertainty. The Iran war has exposed the kingdom to the vulnerabilities of regional conflict, prompting Riyadh to rethink its security partnerships, energy strategy, and Vision 2030 ambitions.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — September 24, 2026

Spotlight: War with Iran

Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran

If the United States decides to pursue the strategy of "mowing the grass" in Iran, it could lay the foundation for prolonged regional instability and global disruption.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — April 17, 2026

Pillars

Featured Videos

All-Out War in Yemen

A New Phase in the Iran War?

Escalation in Iran

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire | Asked & Answered

Is the Iran War Coming to an End?

What's Happening with Israel and Iran?

Will Iranians Overthrow Their Government?

Who Is Iran's New Leader?

What Happens Next in Iran?

Featured Analysis

Photo: Omar Albaw / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Omar Albaw / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

The Self-Reliance Dividend: The Imperative of Syrian Refugees’ Economic Inclusion

The current model for refugee management has failed. Will Todman argues that Gulf and Western actors should advance a new approach that prioritizes Syrian refugees’ self-reliance and private sector integration, making them part of the regional connectivity agenda.

Report by Will Todman — October 5, 2026

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Avoiding Another Long War in Yemen

In the wake of the Riyadh airport attacks, Saudi Arabia risks getting sucked into another long, costly war that ultimately only emboldens the Houthis and deepens the regional conflict. Allison Minor outlines a better approach.

Commentary by Allison Minor — October 15, 2026

The Price of Exclusion

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights how Western aid cuts have rendered the current international response to Syrian refugees obsolete.

Newsletter by Will Todman — October 7, 2026

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Saudi Arabia faces a new era of uncertainty. The Iran war has exposed the kingdom to the vulnerabilities of regional conflict, prompting Riyadh to rethink its security partnerships, energy strategy, and Vision 2030 ambitions.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — September 24, 2026

Fueling Discontent 

This installment of Charting the Middle East traces the rapid rise in government-set fuel prices in Syria, highlighting how the Iran war’s economic effects are introducing new risks to regional stability.

Newsletter by Mona Yacoubian and Kira Nygren — September 24, 2026