Middle East Program

Providing forward-looking analysis of the political, diplomatic, economic, and security forces shaping the Middle East’s emerging order

The Middle East is at a “hinge moment,” a period of transformative change where the old order is disappearing, and a new, region-driven multipolar order is emerging. The Middle East’s changing order heralds a time of greater dynamism and unpredictability. While this transformative moment brings new opportunities for peace and prosperity, it also holds the potential for deepening conflict. For the United States, understanding the dynamics at play in the Middle East, the motivations of the region’s key stakeholders, and the inherent risks and opportunities for the United States will be critical to ensuring U.S. interests and promoting American prosperity. 

In the emerging Middle East order, regional actors hold far greater agency to shape the region’s contours. For the Gulf—the Middle East’s new “center of gravity”—the vision focuses on de-escalating and containing/managing regional conflicts; stabilizing countries emerging from conflict such as Syria; transforming their economies to create jobs, develop vibrant private sectors, and capture advances toward non-carbon energy transition, and creating building blocks for a regional security architecture. If successful, these efforts could create a far more stable and prosperous Middle East, with strengthened intra-regional connections and the region’s fuller integration into the global economy.

The Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look to unpack the complex dynamics of the region’s emerging order through the “Middle East Emerging Order Initiative” founded on four strategic pillars focused on key diplomatic, economic, security, and stabilization trends in the region. Explore the pillars below:

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Spotlight: War with Iran

Pillars

Featured Videos

A New Phase in the Iran War?

Escalation in Iran

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire | Asked & Answered

Is the Iran War Coming to an End?

What's Happening with Israel and Iran?

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire | Asked & Answered

Will Iranians Overthrow Their Government?

Who Is Iran's New Leader?

What Happens Next in Iran?

Featured Analysis

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Saudi Vision 2030 at Ten

Ten years after its launch, Vision 2030 remains Saudi Arabia's roadmap for resilience. The Iran war reinforced—not weakened—the case for economic diversification, with AI, digital infrastructure, and strategic adaptation now central to the kingdom's long-term ambitions.

Brief by Michael Ratney and Adel Hamaizia — July 6, 2026

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Is the Iran War Entering a Dangerous New Phase?

Escalating U.S.-Iran strikes are widening the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Gulf infrastructure, regional stability, and global energy security. Yet behind the fighting, mediators are searching for an off-ramp before the crisis spirals further.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — July 20, 2026

What the Iran War Is Costing Joint Gulf-U.S. Ambitions for AI

For decades, Gulf states invested trillions into the U.S. economy, tied their security to Washington, and bet that alignment was the price of protection. The Iran war raised a clear question: Was alignment the cause of the threat, rather than the cure for it?

Commentary by Joseph A. Farsakh — July 15, 2026

Beyond Oil: Vision 2030 at Ten

This installment of Charting the Middle East explores the progress Saudi Arabia has made in diversifying its economy 10 years after the launch of Vision 2030.

Newsletter by Michael Ratney — July 15, 2026

Saudi Vision 2030 at Ten

Ten years after its launch, Vision 2030 remains Saudi Arabia's roadmap for resilience. The Iran war reinforced—not weakened—the case for economic diversification, with AI, digital infrastructure, and strategic adaptation now central to the kingdom's long-term ambitions.

Brief by Michael Ratney and Adel Hamaizia — July 6, 2026

Subsidies, Stockpiles, and Shortages

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights regional government responses to the Iran war’s widening impacts.

Newsletter by Josiane Atallah — June 18, 2026