Middle East Program

Providing forward-looking analysis of the political, diplomatic, economic, and security forces shaping the Middle East’s emerging order

The Middle East is at a “hinge moment,” a period of transformative change where the old order is disappearing, and a new, region-driven multipolar order is emerging. The Middle East’s changing order heralds a time of greater dynamism and unpredictability. While this transformative moment brings new opportunities for peace and prosperity, it also holds the potential for deepening conflict. For the United States, understanding the dynamics at play in the Middle East, the motivations of the region’s key stakeholders, and the inherent risks and opportunities for the United States will be critical to ensuring U.S. interests and promoting American prosperity. 

In the emerging Middle East order, regional actors hold far greater agency to shape the region’s contours. For the Gulf—the Middle East’s new “center of gravity”—the vision focuses on de-escalating and containing/managing regional conflicts; stabilizing countries emerging from conflict such as Syria; transforming their economies to create jobs, develop vibrant private sectors, and capture advances toward non-carbon energy transition, and creating building blocks for a regional security architecture. If successful, these efforts could create a far more stable and prosperous Middle East, with strengthened intra-regional connections and the region’s fuller integration into the global economy.

The Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look to unpack the complex dynamics of the region’s emerging order through the “Middle East Emerging Order Initiative” founded on four strategic pillars focused on key diplomatic, economic, security, and stabilization trends in the region. Explore the pillars below:

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Featured Analysis

Would Regime Change Solve the Iran Challenge? | State of Play

March 4, 2026 • 3:00 – 3:30 pm EST

The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play on the lessons from regime change operations in the Middle East and beyond.

Hosted by Geopolitics and Foreign Policy
Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS
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Audio Briefs

The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran

An audio version of “⁠The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran,⁠” a new Critical Questions by CSIS’s Mona Yacoubian. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.  

Podcast Episode by Mona Yacoubian — March 1, 2026

Audio Briefs

United States and Iran on the Brink: What's at Stake?

CSIS Middle East Program experts discussed developments between the United States and Iran following Iran's brutal crackdown on protestors, President Trump’s ordering of an aircraft carrier strike group to the region, and recent high-stakes negotiations.

Transcript — February 18, 2026

How Syria Can Succeed in Integrating the Kurds

Intensified conflict between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces could threaten Syria’s transition. Here’s what the government can do to ensure it doesn’t.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman — January 22, 2026