Middle East Program

Providing forward-looking analysis of the political, diplomatic, economic, and security forces shaping the Middle East’s emerging order

The Middle East is at a “hinge moment,” a period of transformative change where the old order is disappearing, and a new, region-driven multipolar order is emerging. The Middle East’s changing order heralds a time of greater dynamism and unpredictability. While this transformative moment brings new opportunities for peace and prosperity, it also holds the potential for deepening conflict. For the United States, understanding the dynamics at play in the Middle East, the motivations of the region’s key stakeholders, and the inherent risks and opportunities for the United States will be critical to ensuring U.S. interests and promoting American prosperity. 

In the emerging Middle East order, regional actors hold far greater agency to shape the region’s contours. For the Gulf—the Middle East’s new “center of gravity”—the vision focuses on de-escalating and containing/managing regional conflicts; stabilizing countries emerging from conflict such as Syria; transforming their economies to create jobs, develop vibrant private sectors, and capture advances toward non-carbon energy transition, and creating building blocks for a regional security architecture. If successful, these efforts could create a far more stable and prosperous Middle East, with strengthened intra-regional connections and the region’s fuller integration into the global economy.

The Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look to unpack the complex dynamics of the region’s emerging order through the “Middle East Emerging Order Initiative” founded on four strategic pillars focused on key diplomatic, economic, security, and stabilization trends in the region. Explore the pillars below:

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Media Queries

Spotlight: War with Iran

After Hormuz: Will the Houthis Block Another Chokepoint?

Video — April 1, 2026

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Visualizing Iran’s Escalation Strategy

Iran is abandoning calibrated retaliation for rapid escalation—expanding the war across the region and raising stakes globally. The Middle East Program breaks down Tehran’s strategy with two new charts mapping horizontal and vertical escalation.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — March 27, 2026

Pillars

Featured Videos

Will Iranians Overthrow Their Government?

Who Is Iran's New Leader?

What Happens Next in Iran?

Featured Analysis

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Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran

If the United States decides to pursue the strategy of "mowing the grass" in Iran, it could lay the foundation for prolonged regional instability and global disruption.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — April 17, 2026

Staying Power

Despite Israeli evacuation orders, tens of thousands of Lebanese are choosing to remain in the south.

Blog Post by Lilya Yatim — April 15, 2026

Goodnight, Cairo

Amid rising food costs and power rationing, Egypt faces a growing crisis.

Blog Post by Ana Eveleigh — March 31, 2026

Visualizing Iran’s Escalation Strategy

Iran is abandoning calibrated retaliation for rapid escalation—expanding the war across the region and raising stakes globally. The Middle East Program breaks down Tehran’s strategy with two new charts mapping horizontal and vertical escalation.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — March 27, 2026