Artificial Intelligence

AI has changed the world as we know it, and the race for AI dominance will determine who shapes the global order over the coming century. CSIS seeks to answer vital questions about the future of AI and its implications for warfare, U.S. national security, and the global economy.

Photo: Benjamin Jensen/Created using Midjourney

Photo: Benjamin Jensen/Created using Midjourney

AI and Grand Strategy: The Case for Restraint

Artificial intelligence may not reward a military arms race, but instead favor strategic restraint, economic capacity, and the ability to mobilize capital, infrastructure, and partnerships that shape long-term power and influence.

Report by Erica D. Lonergan and Benjamin Jensen — January 28, 2026

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Jen Berlin

Jen Berlin

Vice President, Economic Security and Technology Department
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program
Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen

Director, Futures Lab and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
Matt Pearl

Matt Pearl

Director, Strategic Technologies Program

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Introducing "Watt's Law” and The Power Supply Ceiling on American Innovation

Watt’s Law is the idea that the next decade of progress will be driven less by transistor shrinkage alone and more by how effectively we convert watts of electricity into useful computation through better full-system design, including accelerators, memory, networking, software, distribution via edge computing, and operations. Watt’s Law is not a law of physics and not a guaranteed doubling schedule. It is a rule-of-thumb about what is increasingly determining real-world AI capability, which is system efficiency and utilization under power constraint. For most of the modern digital economy, the United States has enjoyed a quiet structural advantage where computing kept getting better while the energy cost of using it generally fell. That assumption is collapsing, and countries that can mobilize power and compute at speed are on track to surpass us. The AI boom has pushed demand for computing beyond the comfortable world where transistors got cheaper and more efficient as a matter of course.

Event — February 12, 2026

The AI Policy Podcast

Jennifer Pahlka on Reforming Government for the AI Era

Greg sits down with Jennifer Pahlka, founder of Code for America and author of Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better.

Podcast Episode by Gregory C. Allen — February 5, 2026

Photo: CSIS

AI and Grand Strategy: The Case for Restraint

Artificial intelligence may not reward a military arms race, but instead favor strategic restraint, economic capacity, and the ability to mobilize capital, infrastructure, and partnerships that shape long-term power and influence.

Report by Erica D. Lonergan and Benjamin Jensen — January 28, 2026

Lost in Definition: How Confusion over Agentic AI Risks Governance

Confusion over what “agentic AI” actually means is creating governance gaps that risk flawed procurement, unclear accountability, and dangerous mismatches between autonomy and human judgment.

Brief by Yasir Atalan, Ian Reynolds, and Benjamin Jensen — January 26, 2026